Archive for Joe Mauer

Tracking average draft position (ADP) can be an incredibly useful tool in preparing for your upcoming fantasy drafts.  It’s most helpful in standard snake-style drafts as you’re able to see, on average, where a particular player is taken; whether you can wait a few rounds to grab him or if you have to act quicker than you thought to pick him up.  Obviously it’s less helpful if you’re in an auction, but it does help you see which players are, for the most part, off people’s radars and can be stolen late in your auction for a cheaper price tag.

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It’s been less than  a month since the Twins fired Bill Smith and replaced him with new GM Terry Ryan and after just two quick moves in free agency, the Twins roster looks to be a taking a different shape for 2012.  The signing of Jamey Carroll and subsequent announcement of him as the team’s new starting shortstop put the incumbent middle infielders on official notice while the signing of Ryan Doumit sheds some light on the club’s confidence in DL regulars Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau and possible departure of other free agents.  We’ve already had Dan Wade cover Carroll and the infield and Chris Cwik has given his thoughts on Doumit’s situation, but how about the team beyond?  What does this mean for Mauer and Morneau?  Does Doumit’s signing put an official end to Michael Cuddyer’s and Jason Kubel’s tenure in Minnesota?  And finally, what does all of this mean for fantasy owners?

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Before we continue with the catchers today, allow me to make a correction/clarification.  After much discussion behind the scenes and after some of the comments received, these rankings will be purely based on the players’ level of worth, much in the style of our regular in-season rankings.  Costs to protect and relative value are up to you as there are just too many nuances and cost variations for individual leagues that we are unable to accurately factor in.  That being said, please allow me to make one change to the first tier…. Read the rest of this entry »

At the end of each fantasy season, I always like to do what few fantasy sites/writers ever do for their readers.  I like to hold myself accountable.  You need to know whether you are getting sound advice and I need to know where I need to step up my game.  So with that, I like to go back throughout the year, both spring and in-season, and see just how successful I was in offering up advice.    When I saw Mike Podhorzer’s look back at his 20 Bold Predictions, I knew it was time to serve myself up as well.

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The catcher position, with respect to fantasy baseball has seen quite the inundation of new talent.  There was a time when, if you didn’t own one of the big three — Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, Victor Martinez — it didn’t really matter who you had as your backstop.  Sure, there were some that were more productive than others, but overall, there were numerous interchangeable players and whether you grabbed one in the 9th round or in the 15th round, it didn’t make much difference.  Now, with blossoming stars like Carlos Santana, Buster Posey, Alex Avila, and Matt Wieters, things are looking a little different.  The position is much deeper and production is on the rise.  One of these rising stars, though, has an interesting future ahead of him and fantasy owners will have some tough decisions to make.  What will come of Jesus Montero in 2012?

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Today’s suggested Would You Rather comes via email from someone named SuicideKing and I couldn’t be happier about posting it here.  Talk about throwing something right in your wheelhouse!  If you’ve been reading all season, you’ll know I’ve never been shy about my dislike for drafting Joe Mauer as high as he usually goes and that I’ve been a huge Alex Avila fan all year.  But this is business here, so let’s do an objective comparison and then I’ll turn it over to the rest of you for further discussion.

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As the sun begins to set on another dazzling baseball season, fantasy baseball GMs, especially keeper league owners, have been evaluating their current players in an effort to determine how right they were in drafting certain guys as well as what the prospects may be for owning them in 2012.  The catcher position tends to be somewhat of an afterthought if you’re not talking about a top name like Brian McCann and Carlos Santana.  But what about a guy like Mike Napoli?  In case you weren’t paying attention, after a slow start to the season, Napoli put up some fantastic numbers and, frankly, commands your attention when discussing the top players at the position for this year and next.

Let’s just hit the basics, first and foremost.  Fantasy baseball is a numbers game and you’re only as good as your level of production.  While Napoli was used plenty as a DH this season, he played in 55 games behind the dish and therefore maintains his eligibility.  Here’s a a quick look at the basic stats that are important to the fantasy game:

*based on a minimum of 250 PA

That’s not too shabby for a guy who was, on average taken somewhere in the 9th or 10th round of your draft.  Not only do his overall numbers blow away most of the catchers in the game, but he actually outperformed numerous players at other positions that were taken ahead of him in almost every draft.  If you want to talk position scarcity, then we can make a pretty good case for catchers, no?  But we’ll just stick with the backstops for now.

Obviously, the thing that stands out the most is just how productive Napoli has been in the limited plate appearances he has received.  It just so happened to be one of the biggest knocks on him coming into the season.  Only once in his career had he topped 500 plate appearances in a season, and while he was no longer under the rule of the Jeff Mathis-loving Mike Scioscia in Anaheim, the Rangers had brought in additional help behind the plate despite trading a coveted bullpen arm for him.  The playing time question was certainly an issue.

But in typical Napoli fashion, he accepted his limited playing time and still mashed the heck out of the ball, even while missing most of June with an oblique strain.  It may have taken him the whole first half of the season to get things going in the batting average department, but the post-All Star break surge cannot be taken lightly, nor dismissed.  While yes, his BABIP shot through the roof in the second half, you also need to take note that he also improved his walk rate dramatically while also lowering his K% to a much more respectable level.  Given his BABIP totals over the last few years, you can definitely say that his .385 second half average was partially luck driven, but you can’t deny that he also worked hard to improve his plate discipline.

Napoli is arbitration eligible right now, and given what he’s done for the Rangers this season, it’s hard to believe he won’t be back in Arlington next year.  Maybe they give him more work, maybe they give him the same.  Either way, a backstop with a .246 career ISO mark and is capable of hitting above .270 (just to keep it low and realistic) certainly deserves consideration over some of the top, yet under-producing names out there.  Yes, oft-injured Joe Mauer….I’m looking in your direction.

At this point in the season, roto players are scratching and clawing through their categories looking primarily at the ones that have some shred of movement possibilities.  Head to head owners are gearing up for their fantasy playoffs as their regular season is almost at a close.  Whichever style league you find yourself in, it’s time to start focusing on the hitters that are swinging a hot bat right now, despite their overall value.  The catching position is perfect for this.  If you’re not sitting on one of the top five backstops out there, then chances are, the players you are using are relatively interchangeable with those that are sitting out on your waiver wire.  So why not use the one with the hottest stick right now?  If he starts to cool, you can probably find an easy replacement who is on the upswing for the final month then.  Here’s a look at some of August’s hot bats behind the plate that may be useful at the moment. Read the rest of this entry »

Time to re-visit those monthly rankings, again.  As always, the criteria used for these is as follows:

1.  Current performance level
2.  Expected performance for rest of season
3.  Value based on standard 5×5 categories (avg over OBP)

One note, despite the fact that it is late in the season, we are not accounting for keeper value right now.  We are staying within the parameters of this season alone.  Injured players remain on the list at the bottom so we can just see who was up there from start to finish.  That being said, here’s how the catching position looks right now…. Read the rest of this entry »

Using the same model described in my looks at surprise players, here are the biggest busts thus far in ottoneu lwts leagues at catcher and first base.  Almost by definition, these guys are all expected to regress in a positive direction going forward.  But for each position I’ll give you “my pick,” the player that I think is most likely to turn it around in the second half and produce at their price tag.

Catcher

My Pick: Joe Mauer

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