Archive for jason heyward

Mike Trout is a stud.  No question about it.  At 20 years old, the Angels outfielder has taken MLB by storm with a .341/.397/.562 slash line that comes with 12 home runs, 40 RBI, 57 runs scored and 26 stolen bases. He’s delivered all of that and, mind you, he was in the minors for the first month of the season. The production has been phenomenal and as an owner of Trout in my primary keeper league, the smile is so wide, it makes the Kool-Aid guy look like a crying fool. But while the old adage is not being able to see the forest through the trees, so many keeper league owners are so hell-bent on building up their future that they fail to see the season at hand and are so willing to dismantle their entire squad simply to acquire Trout and hand me the league this year. Read the rest of this entry »

A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. Heyward was coming off a rookie season in which he popped 18 home runs and batted .277/.393/.456 at age 20, tying him with Ty Cobb for the 15th best OPS+ ever for a hitter who qualified for the batting title but couldn’t legally buy a beer. But, after falling to a .227/.319/.389 triple-slash and 14 homers in 2011 while bothered by a bum shoulder, Heyward ranks 31st among outfielders (114th overall) in MockDraftCentral.com’s latest ADP rankings.

While Heyward did fall into some bad habits at the plate last year and has some durability concerns, this is a perfect time to buy low on a youthful outfielder with superstar potential. Here’s why.

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Just when you thought the cost to draft Bryce Harper couldn’t get any higher, the Nationals’ 19 year old phenom gives you yet another reason to allocate more of your draft day budget his way.  With a single in his first at-bat during Tuesday’s game between the Scottsdale Scorpions and the Peoria Javelinas, Harper extended his hit streak to 11 games in the highly competitive, prospect-laden Arizona Fall League.  In his second at-bat, he drilled a two-run shot to centerfield and posted his fourth multi-hit game in his last five and fifth in this 11 game run.  After a slow start in which he had just three hits in his first 27 at bats, Harper has made the necessary adjustments and is now hitting .290 with 5 HR and 20 RBI through 16 games.  He’s also kicked in three stolen bases, has a .357 OBP, and owns a .913 OPS right now.  There is no blue-light special to be had here.  If you want him, it’s time to get your fantasy checkbook ready.

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Wrapping up our survey of disappointing seasons, we turn our attention to shortstops and outfielders.

Shortstops

My pick to hit to his cost the rest of the way: Tsuyoshi Nishioka

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At an age when most players are chasing a trip to Omaha or cutting their teeth in Low Class-A, Jason Heyward crushed major league pitching in 2010. The pre-season #1 prospect, whose legend grew with each car he dented while going deep in spring training, batted .277/.393/.456. Heyward’s 131 OPS+ as a 20-year-old bested that of Willie Mays and put him in the same company as Ken Griffey Jr. It’s no surprise, then, that there were enormous expectations for the Braves’ right fielder in 2011: the fans projected him to hit above .290 while getting on base nearly 40 percent of the time and slugging north of .500.

Instead, Heyward will step into the box for his first post-All-Star at-bat with a .226/.315/.404 triple-slash. Bothered by a right shoulder injury that has lingered since spring training and pushed him to the DL in late May, Heyward has yet to reach the double digits in home runs and has drawn criticism from Chipper Jones regarding his ability to play through injuries. It’s impossible for anyone outside of the Braves’ training room and front office to assess Heyward’s health. But let’s diagnose why Atlanta’s prodigy is turning in a subpar sophomore season.

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Time to update the outfielders! Commenters from last week might be happy to see that a certain someone wearing White Sox has dropped into OF2 territory. The offending OF1 rankings can be seen here.

Worst of the Best?
1. Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles (.377 wOBA, .409 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
2. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago (.427 wOBA, .371 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
3. Torii Hunter, Los Angeles (.356 wOBA, .366 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
4. Jason Heyward, Atlanta (.424 wOBA, .361 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
5. Bobby Abreu, Los Angeles (.348 wOBA, .360 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Alex Rios and Carlos Gonzalez join the OF1s next time around, although I just remain skeptical of Rios and think Go CarGo could benefit from a few less swings. The first tier here consists mostly of uninspiring veterans that just don’t have the upside to really be solid OF1s, and then the king of Upside himself, Jason Heyward. Many will question why he isn’t on the OF1 list, but he’s in barely-charted water for a 20 year old, as David Cameron showed this week. If the strikeout rate continues to fall – showing his ability to adjust – he’ll be on the first list soon enough.

If You Squint Just Right They Could Still be an OF1, I Promise
6. Adam Dunn, Washington (.392 wOBA, .394 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
7. Adam Lind, Toronto (.300 wOBA, .349 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
8. Carlos Quentin, Chicago (.305 wOBA, .352 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
9. Carlos Lee, Houston (.243 wOBA, .351 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
10. Colby Rasmus, St. Louis (.375 wOBA, .341 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
11. B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.301 wOBA, .334 ZiPs Ros wOBA)

The first half of this tier includes a lot of veterans that were borderline OF1s going into the season. Well, perhaps Dunn has always had the scarlet letter of his batting average to hold him down, and maybe we should have seen Quentin’s low-batting average ways as his true talent level. His line drive rate does not mean we should expect a huge BABIP-fueled bounceback, as talented as he has seemed at times. Lee is heating up, and Rasmus is cooling down, but Lee may end up with the better batting average given their respective long-term histories.

Upside to be Solid OF2s
12. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia (.343 wOBA, .354 ZiPs RoS)
13. Denard Span, Minnesota (.357 wOBA, .344 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
14. Austin Jackson, Detroit (.378 wOBA, .308 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
15. Marlon Byrd, Chicago (.380 wOBA, .360 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
16. Vernon Wells, Toronto (.398 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Span’s not a bad player and is probably a solid OF2 right now, but a .300 hitter with no power and 30 steals is pretty vanilla. It doesn’t look like it will get any better. A-Jax has cut his strikeout rate from 32.3% in April to 24.4% this month and has settled in with a .302/.348/.395 May after his squeaky clean April. That’s an improvement, but it doesn’t mean he’s not a risk to put up a mediocre batting average going forward. Byrd’s still not walking at all (3.2%) but his ISO survived the move. Adam Jones should take notice, cut his strikeout rate, and up his power to join the party. Wells would be more attractive if it wasn’t likely that we’ve already seen about half of his 2010 home run output already.

Upside to Join the Top
17. Franklin Gutierrez, Mariners (.374 wOBA, .333 ZiPs wOBA)
18. Jay Bruce, Cincinnati (.361 wOBA, .343 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
19. Adam Jones, Baltimore (.290 wOBA, .345 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Now we’re about 36 outfielders in, so we’ve actually covered to OF3 in standard mixed leagues. And to be fair, you’d rather have these guys shuttling in and out of your final outfielder spot because they are streaky young players that are adjusting to the league. Gutierrez could be considered a solid OF2, but it’s not clear that he’s got the power (.148 career ISO, .150 is usually average) or speed (5.3 career speed score, 5 is average) to be relevant in mixed leagues as a second outfielder.

Since outfielders are so bountiful, it makes sense to create some tiers. We’ll start these rankings at 17, which means that the first outfielder may be an OF1 in most leagues, but we’ll still be able to delve a little deeper than we have to date. Once again, to-date wOBA plus ZiPS RoS wOBA is listed.

Worst of the Best?
1. Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh (.390 wOBA, .360 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
2. B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.328 wOBA, .339 ZiPs Ros wOBA)
3. Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles (.484 wOBA, .414 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
4. Adam Lind, Toronto (.323 wOBA, .356 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
5. Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado (.345 wOBA, .351 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
6. Bobby Abreu, Los Angeles (.343 wOBA, .361 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Jayson Werth and Andre Ethier moved up into the OF1 rankings with their strong play in the early goings. Adam Lind and Manny Ramirez moved down because of mediocre play and old age, though Lind could still get it going – he just needs to find his power and stop striking out so much. Neither of those things becomes significant in a short sample. That fact should temper our enthusiasm for McCutchen a tiny bit, though, since there is still no guarantee that he will retain all the power gains he’s made in the past year-plus. As an aside, it’s a little silly to hear about how few times Manny Ramirez has gone on the DL. We all know he’s old and injury-prone at this point. 2008 aside, he’s the kind of guy that misses time here and there but has “somehow” avoided the DL.

Still Strong
7. Adam Dunn, Chicago (.387 wOBA, .393 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
8. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago (.435 wOBA, .370 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
9. Torii Hunter, Los Angeles (.358 wOBA, .366 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
10. Michael Bourn, Houston (.363 wOBA, .324 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
11. Denard Span, Minnesota (.354 wOBA, .342 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
12. Carlos Quentin, Chicago (.294 wOBA, .351 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This is the boring-as-vanilla tier for the most part (but to be fair, it does seem that Haagen-Dazs Vanilla with strawberries is the nectar of the gods). Carlos Quentin is making it harder to believe in him every day, but he’s having some BABIP problems and we can hope that power comes back still. Not too late for him to turn it around and have a decent year. Soriano’s resurgence takes him from afterthought to solid OF2, which is actually sort of an amazing thing with how bad he’s looked in the recent past.

What’s Going On?
14. Jason Heyward, Atlanta (.439 wOBA, .356 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
15. Alex Rios, Chicago (.384 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
15. Chase Headley, San Diego (.378 wOBA, .327 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
12. Adam Jones, Baltimore (.255 wOBA, .342 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
13. Carlos Lee, Houston (.230 wOBA, .357 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Yup, as boring as the tier above was, this tier is full of rock-em-sock-em peaks and valleys. Is Jason Heyward really an OF2 already? Will he be a top tier OF1 by the end of the year? He’s really surpassing even the most precocious of young stars with his performance to date. The best news is that he’s making adjustments on breaking balls. Alex Rios, Chase Headley? Finally? And Adam Jones and Carlos Lee may not be remotely close in terms of career arc, but they are looking in the same closet for their lost games. Hopefully for their owners they will find what they are looking for.

For Reals? Really Reals?
Colby Rasmus, St. Louis (.419 wOBA, .342 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Austin Jackson, Detroit (.414 wOBA, .307 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Brett Gardner, New York (.415 wOBA, .330 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Marlon Byrd, Chicago (.422 wOBA, .363 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Vernon Wells, Toronto (.440 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Marlon Byrd has to count as the most surprising player in this tier full of surprises. There aren’t enough words for this space to unpack all that’s going on here, but you’ll see analysis on these guys here at FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. I promise.

The news was not overly great in prospect land this week, as three of the top hitters in the Arizona Fall League had to shut it down for the off-season, thanks to injuries. One of the top pitching prospects in the game had an even worse week, as he underwent Tommy John surgery.

Mike Stanton | OF | Florida Marlins
The injury to Stanton is unfortunate because he was really hitting well in the fall league after slumping for much of the second half of the year after being promoted from high-A to double-A. The good news, though, is that his back injury is not considered serious and that the club pulled him as a precaution, more than anything. However, back injuries do have a habit of lingering and/or reoccurring, especially in power hitters who take massive cuts. With any luck, though, the rest will alleviate the problem a lot quicker in the off-season than it would during the regular schedule.

After slamming 39 homers in low-A ball in 2008, Stanton hit another 28 in ’09 while splitting his time between high-A and double-A. Massive strikeout numbers – 33.1% – were at least partially to blame for his struggles in double-A. The outfield prospect will not turn 20 until November, so he has plenty of time to harness his swing. He’ll probably stick in double-A for a good portion of 2010 and likely won’t see significant playing time in the Majors until 2011. There are really no players on the Major League squad that could stand in his way, especially with Jeremy Hermida likely on his way out of town this winter (either by trade or non-tendering).

Jason Heyward | OF | Atlanta Braves
Like Stanton, Heyward suffered an injury (to his leg/hamstring) that is not considered serious. The left-handed hitter just turned 20 in August and he ended the year in triple-A. Heyward opened the season in high-A, where he played 49 games before moving up to double-A, where he played another 47 games. He did miss some time during the regular season with injuries, as well, although it was not related to his leg problem. A 2007 first-round draft pick out of a Georgia high school, Heyward has risen quickly through the Braves system. He’ll likely open 2010 in triple-A but could be playing regularly in Atlanta by mid-season.

With veteran outfielder Garret Anderson likely heading out of town via free agency (or retirement), the organization will field a very young outfield in ’10 with the anchor of the group being Nate McLouth, who is signed through 2011 (plus an option for 2012). Jordan Schafer, who had a disappointing rookie campaign in ’09, is another likely starter in ’10. The club also has Ryan Church, Matt Diaz, Brandon Jones, and Gregor Blanco on the depth chart.

Dayan Viciedo | 3B | Chicago White Sox
A bad throwing elbow has shut down Viciedo for the remainder of the winter. It’s unfortunate for the third baseman because he had an opportunity to really work on his game after a modest pro debut in ’09 after signing a big contract as an international free agent out of Cuba. Viciedo hit .280/.317/.391 in double-A but he showed very little patience at the plate and his rumored plus power never showed up (.111 ISO). The 20 year old (whose age is in question) was also criticized for his weight and overall drive.

Few scouts believe Viciedo will remain at third base for long, even though current MLB third baseman Gordon Beckham will likely move back to his original position at shortstop. The Cuba native probably needs one to two more seasons in the minors to smooth out his approach at the plate and hopefully discover his power stroke, which he’ll need to be an impact fantasy player.

Jarrod Parker | RHP | Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona’s No. 1 draft pick from 2007 was on the fast-track to the Majors before blowing out his elbow in mid-2009. Unfortunately, the club tried to take the rehab approach (which rarely works long-term) and Parker will now miss the entire 2011 season, rather than just half the year. Like the other players above, Parker is still quite young, as he will not turn 20 until November.

He made 16 starts at double-A in ’09 before getting hurt and he posted a 3.68 ERA (3.21 FIP) with a strikeout rate of 8.50 K/9. Parker has allowed just 10 home runs in 155 career innings. His ground-ball rate of 55% in ’09 makes his plus fastball all the more impressive. The track record with Tommy John surgery is good, so Parker should recover well, but it pushes back his MLB ETA, which now probably sits at late 2012. Be sure to keep that in mind, especially if you’re playing in a fantasy keeper league. The injury hurts Arizona, as well, since Parker was the organization’s only top-flight starting pitcher prospect.

Divisional races are heating up, both in the fantasy world and MLB standings. It’s time to bear down and make that final push toward the playoffs. With that in mind, let’s check out some fantasy links…

Brandon Funston of Yahoo! Sports puts a fantasy spin on John Smoltz’s impressive return to the National League. “St. Louis pitching coach Dave Duncan has been known to work magic with reclamation projects and I think Smoltz still has plenty to offer,” Funston writes. “His upcoming schedule sets up nicely, with Washington and Pittsburgh next on his starting agenda.”

Brian L. Schubert of Fantasy Baseball Cafe joins the ogling of Rangers reliever Neftali Feliz. Setup men don’t often carry much fantasy value, but a 21-year-old who posts a 0.63 ERA, 0.35 WHIP and 19/1 K/BB ratio in his first 14-plus major league innings clearly deserves attention from all realms of the sport.

Rotoworld’s Matthew Pouliot checks out some potential September call-ups both in the American League and Nationals League. Keep an eye out for Milwaukee’s Mat Gamel, Atlanta’s Jason Heyward and San Diego’s Aaron Poreda. It’s sometimes surprising how much of an impact these guys can have.

In desperate need of steals? Aren’t we all? Charlie Saponara of FantasyBaseball365.com runs down some potential September call-ups who boast fantasy-worthy wheels. The Rockies’ Eric Young Jr., Oakland’s Eric Patterson and Cleveland’s Michael Brantley top the list.

Ray Flowers of BaseballGuys.com takes a deeper look at “The Resurgence of Barry Zito.” As Flowers notes, over the last 30 days, Zito “has a 2.51 ERA, the 10th best mark in baseball and better than guys like Jon Lester (2.70), Johan Santana (3.19) and CC Sabathia (3.35).” FanGraphs’ own Erik Manning delivered a post on Zito late last week.

R.J. White of AOL Fanhouse takes note of Ryan Zimmerman’s recent hot streak. The Washington third baseman has posted a .359 average, .512 on-base percentage and .781 slugging percentage in the month August, with seven homers, 15 RBI and 15 runs scored. White suggests Zimmerman could be a top-25 player heading into next season.

Have a fantasy-relevant link you think others should see? Or simply have a question or comment? Shoot me an e-mail or hit me up on Twitter.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Robert Manuel, Marc Rzepczynski, Aaron Poreda, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, and Mat Latos.

Freddie Freeman: The Atlanta Braves organization recently promoted its two top offensive prospects from high-A to double-A. Freeman, a first baseman, had a breakout 2008 season, in what was his first full year in the minors after being selected in the second round of the 2007 draft out of a California high school. The prospect, who recently turned 20, hit .316/.378/.521 with 18 homers in 491 at-bats. This season, he began the year in high-A where he hit .302/.394/.447 with six homers in 255 at-bats. So far in double-A, Freeman is hitting .294 with three doubles in nine games. Although he does not walk a ton, the left-handed hitter does not strike out much (16.1 K%), compared to other power hitters. Defensively, he is above average and he has a strong arm as a former prep hurler who was committed to Cal State Fullerton as a two-way player.

Jason Heyward: This power-hitting outfielder was, like Freeman, a steal from the 2007 draft. The Braves nabbed the Georgia native with the 14th overall pick of the draft. An advanced hitter for a prep signee, Heyward has a career line of .312/.379/.491 in 733 at-bats – and he’s still just 19 years old. Earlier this season in high-A ball, Heyward hit .296/.369/.519 with 10 homers in 189 at-bats, while missing time with an injury. In a good pitcher’s park, the left-handed hitter posted a walk rate of 10 BB% and a strikeout rate of 15.9 K%. Since his promotion to double-A, Heyward is hitting .346/.438/.615 with three doubles and two triples in eight games. Neither Freeman nor Heyward should see the Majors this season, but they should both be kept in mind for 2010… They could both be up before the MLB All-Star break, depending on the big league club’s playoff hopes.

Danny Valencia: It’s been a rough offensive season for the Minnesota Twins. Incumbent third baseman Joe Crede is hitting .234/.297/.452, while back-up Brian Buscher is hitting .210/.350/.310. Help, though, may be on the way. Valencia does not have the same pedigree that other top prospects have, as a former 19th round selection out of the University of Miami. However, he’s clawed his way to the top and is on the cusp of giving some offensive aid to the Twins’ big league club. In four seasons, Valencia has a triple-slash line of .305/.363/.489. He began the 2009 season in double-A, where he hit .284/.373/.482 with seven homers in 218 at-bats. Recently promoted to triple-A, Valencia is currently hitting .360/.372/.573 with three homers and seven doubles in 19 games. His 2.6% walk rate at triple-A suggests he has a little work to do with his approach. However, the right-handed hitter is almost big-league ready and has the potential to be an average Major League third baseman.

Terry Evans: If you think Valencia is a long-shot made good, meet Evans. This Angels outfield prospect was selected out of a small junior college in the 47th round in the 2002 draft by the St. Louis Cardinals organization. He had four nondescript years in the minors before breaking out offensively in 2006. The next season, Evans was traded to the Angels organization and he made his MLB debut (eight games). Outfield depth in the system kept him at triple-A in 2008 and an injury cost him much of the season. Back at full strength in 2009, Evans is putting on a show with a line of .287/.333/.520 in 348 at-bats. He also has 17 homers and 20 steals in 23 attempts. Although he’s already 27, Evans is showing 30-30 ability at the triple-A level. His poor plate rates will probably limit his ceiling in the Majors, but this late bloomer has some big-league potential, even if only as a part-time player.

Esmil Rogers: For long-time fans, it is still hard to wrap one’s mind around the fact that Colorado could produce effective Major League pitchers. But in this new era, talented pitchers can actually survive in the Rockies. Rogers, 23, has been slowly navigating the Colorado minor league system since coming over to North America in 2006. He’s really taken his game to another level this season, thanks to improved command and control of his solid repertoire: low-to-mid-90s fastball, good curveball and improving changeup. At double-A, Rogers allowed 87 hits in 94.1 innings, while also posting a walk rate of 1.81 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.92 K/9. The right-hander was recently promoted to triple-A, where he’s made just one start (6 IP, 3 R).

Hector Rondon: Another quietly-blooming Latin prospect, Rondon’s name is slowly gaining popularity among prospect watchers. The right-handed hurler broke out in a big way in 2008 and has continued to improve in 2009. He began this season in double-A where he allowed 60 hits in 72 innings of work. The 21-year-old pitcher also posted a walk rate of 2.00 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.13 K/9. Promoted to triple-A, Rondon has made just one start and he did not allow a hit over six innings, while walking two and striking out eight. His repertoire includes a fastball that can touch 94-95 mph, a plus changeup, and a developing slider. He has the potential to be a No. 2 or 3 starter.