What’s With Jason Heyward?
At an age when most players are chasing a trip to Omaha or cutting their teeth in Low Class-A, Jason Heyward crushed major league pitching in 2010. The pre-season #1 prospect, whose legend grew with each car he dented while going deep in spring training, batted .277/.393/.456. Heyward’s 131 OPS+ as a 20-year-old bested that of Willie Mays and put him in the same company as Ken Griffey Jr. It’s no surprise, then, that there were enormous expectations for the Braves’ right fielder in 2011: the fans projected him to hit above .290 while getting on base nearly 40 percent of the time and slugging north of .500.
Instead, Heyward will step into the box for his first post-All-Star at-bat with a .226/.315/.404 triple-slash. Bothered by a right shoulder injury that has lingered since spring training and pushed him to the DL in late May, Heyward has yet to reach the double digits in home runs and has drawn criticism from Chipper Jones regarding his ability to play through injuries. It’s impossible for anyone outside of the Braves’ training room and front office to assess Heyward’s health. But let’s diagnose why Atlanta’s prodigy is turning in a subpar sophomore season.
Heyward hasn’t shown quite the same level of plate discipline this season, as his rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone has increased by about four percentage points (24.2 percent to 28.3 percent; the MLB average is 29-30 percent). Consequently, his walk rate has dropped from 14.6 percent to 11.1 percent. That’s still well above-average, but chasing more junk off the plate certainly isn’t a positive sign.
Perhaps the most aggravating trends for Heyward are his propensity to pop the ball up, producing gimme outs, and chop the ball into the ground, failing to make good use of his prodigious power and 6-foot-5, 240 pound frame. His 23 percent infield/fly ball rate is third-highest in the majors, trailing only Corey Patterson and Mark Trumbo. And Heyward’s 57 percent ground ball rate places him among lightweights like Alexi Casilla, Kosuke Fukudome and Elvis Andrus.
Swinging at more off-the-plate pitches, hitting the ball up the elevator shaft, smacking ground balls like a slap-hitting middle infielder — none of these are good things. But even so, it seems like he has endured some bad luck on balls put in play. His BABIP this season is .256, while his expected BABIP sits around .315.
In particular, Heyward has a .188 BABIP on ground balls. That’s 40-50 points below the NL average and ranks among the likes of Aubrey Huff and Yorvit Torrealba. Heyward’s infield hit rate is three percent, which is in the same range as David Ortiz, Vladimir Guerrero and Billy Butler, guys whose times to first base are measured with sun dials instead of stop watches. Heyward might not be a burner, but he has posted average-ish Speed Scores so far and has rated as an above-average base runner overall. Given his decent wheels, it seems highly unlikely that Heyward will continue to keep company with players who run like they have grand pianos strapped to their backs.
Even with a bum shoulder, Heyward has managed to draw a decent amount of walks and hit for some power. Yet, it’s difficult to project just how he’ll play during the rest of the season. Are the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders the result of his shoulder ailment, or normal growing pains for a player who won’t turn 22 until August? Just how healthy is Heyward? Aggravating as it might be, we don’t know the answers to those questions. At the very least, we should expect Heyward’s average over the rest of the season to climb considerably.
Sadly, the only skill that Heyward hasn’t displayed during his bright, brief career is health. It would be a tragedy if nagging injuries keep him from playing to his full potential.
A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire.
All he needs to do is stay healthy. I’d imagine all those infield popups are at least partly due to his bum shoulder.
He’s constantly nicked up with something, which so far is his norm…
Yeah the injuries are really worrying me. As a Braves fan I still have really high hopes for his future, but part of me just can’t get over the fact that we may be looking at the baseball version of Greg Oden…
Yao Ming would be a better comparison. When healthy, they both can dominate their sport.
but Heyward looked like he was 30 years old at the age of 20, thus Oden is the proper comp.
Oden’s season worth of playing has racked him up elite win share totals.
Second time through the league has allowed pitchers time to adjust to him, and he’s not really making adjustments himself.
Biggest thing, at least swing wise, is how hard he pushes forward and down with his hands to deliver the barrel. There’s not a lot of room for error with this type of swing. Late and the ball goes straight up. A little out in front and he’ll have to make sure to replace his divot on the way back to the dugout. His barrel just isn’t in the zone long enough to give him any room for error. And the injuries haven’t helped him get enough consistent timing to compensate. The push with the hands was my biggest concern with him as a prospect, but he’s good enough to overcome. Just needs some more timing.
Good observation. He drops his hands as the bat comes through the zone.
Steve Carter from project prospect? Great stuff consistently outta you
Well, it’s not rocket science. It’s obviously the shoulder that’s the main problem. If he lets it heal COMPLETELY, he’ll be fine for the rest of his career. If he listen’s to the likes of Chipper, his career is either going to be shortened or he’s not going to player to his full potential (when 100% healthy).
Chipper wasn’t questioning Heyward’s ability to play through injuries (Heyward has already done that several times in his career), but rather his willingness to do so. And, IMO, Chipper wasn’t really questioning Heyward at all, but pointing out to Heyward (publicly) that Heyward at 70% is a much better option than Joe Mather or Eric Hinske or Wilkin Ramirez.
Chipper is not the same player now as he was 10 years ago, but pitchers are still pitching to the reputation of Chipper Jones. I think he was pointing out to Heyward that pitchers would still pitch to the reputation of Heyward, which better sets up the batters behind him with chances to drive him in.
And Larry Parrish hasn’t exactly helped. (*ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE ALERT*) Not just Heyward, but all of the Braves seem to be exhibiting a more aggressive approach at the plate this year that has resulted in much higher strikeout rates and much lower walk rates and OBP from most of them, who were the same guys who led the league in OBP last year.
Chipper: “Take two Kleskos and hit the Gold Club, rook.”
Baseball’s Greg Oden? Say it isn’t so!
You hit the nail on the head – he can’t square anything up at all this year. Weak groundouts and popouts. I get a stiffy when he actually flies out for a change. I’m praying he stays off the DL long enough for me to unload him to somebody who hopes they are “buying low”. Then they can enjoy him hitting wormburners and allowing the infielders to work on their pop-up drills.
He’s playing hurt. You can see it if you watch the Braves games. I saw him cross home plate after scoring a run and he just grimaced, like running the bases is a chore for him. He’s probably not going to be quite right all year.