Archive for Ian Stewart

We read the tea leaves as best we can throughout Spring Training. Playing time, roles, platoons, etc., have a significant effect on the value of players on our fantasy teams. Despite the most reliable of crystal balls, once the season starts, you finally get to the truth about how players will be used. While the numbers are obviously far too small for us to do much dissecting at this point, the actual roles of players can be telling.

As much as I doubted that Mark Trumbo would see much action at third base, the two games he’s started have both been at the hot corner and it very much seem(ed) like the team was committed to playing him there routinely. In many leagues, he will qualify at third in just three more starts there and with that eligibility, Trumbo will be far more valuable. The burning question is whether his brutal defense will allow him to ever qualify. He’s already made three errors, he was left out of Monday’s starting lineup in favor of Alberto Callaspo, and it’s not likely that he’s going to displace Vernon Wells in the outfield anytime soon. While his defense was an ongoing topic of concern throughout the Spring, it’s certainly going to be under the proverbial microscope going forward. If Mike Scioscia loses any confidence he once had in Trumbo, it might not be long before Trumbo is a part-time player and irrelevant in fantasy circles. If he can somehow stick at third, however – he’s certainly worth owning, assuming you don’t play in an OBP league.

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We rely on mock drafts to help guide us on trends without necessarily acting as the definitive voice. They’re somewhat like exit polls in politics — we’re just trying to get a pulse on public opinion before we see the actual results, with the exception that in mock baseball drafts, we can’t be entirely assured that a human being actually made the pick.

The problem being of course, is that mock drafts across formats is a lot like exit polls in Wyoming versus New York. So much depends on context. For instance – if you’re targeting Ian Stewart for any particular reason, Yahoo would suggest that you should expect to see him taken in the 20th round. If you trust Mock Draft Central, he is drafted at roughly 442, should anyone ever get to that round awake.

Stewart is an extreme case but it’s worth pointing out the differences in systems. As you well know, how a player is ranked in the draft room almost inevitably impacts where they are ultimately drafted — and some of the differences are so big that it could dramatically alter your draft approach.

Focusing solely on third base — here are some of the players that have a pretty major difference between Mock Draft Central and Yahoo’s current ADP. For the heck of it, I threw in any notable percentage changes in trend at MDC in case recent news has them moving up or down, and I tossed in the rankings of Eric Karabell over at ESPN (those that made his top 100 anyway).

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When the Colorado Rockies traded Ian Stewart to the Cubs two weeks ago, they not only conceded the fact that they were giving up on their attempts to develop him, but that they also had incredible faith in the fact that hot corner prospect Nolan Arenado’s time was going to be sooner rather than later.  However, since Arenado will be just 21 years old come the start of the season and hasn’t played a single game above the Class-A+ level, the team needed a bridge from now to the future.  They took a shot with Jordan Pacheco, a former catcher in the minors, when both Stewart and Kevin Kouzmanoff failed last year, but obviously they weren’t thrilled with the idea of him manning third base by himself in 2012.  So now, that bridge comes in the form of 38 year old Casey Blake whom the Rockies signed on Tuesday to a one year, $2M dollar contract.

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The Chicago Cubs recently acquired Ian Stewart, ostensibly to man the position vacated by Aramis Ramirez. While those are pretty big shoes to fill, Stewart certainly has some intrigue relative to his fantasy baseball value.

Stewart, 26, seems to be a perennial sleeper on draft lists due to his singular ability to hit the ball out of the park. But both his real-life employer and his fantasy managers grew tired of his inability to make consistent contact, dragging his batting average into the range where he was barely useful — and then in 2011, the wheels fell off and he found himself routinely driving between Colorado Springs and Denver.

Stewart now gets the popular “change of scenery” to attempt to make a fresh start and revive the promise that made him a first round draft pick back in 2003. Will he be able to do it is the big question, of course.

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With players like Dan Uggla and Chone Figgins stinking up the joint and others like Brian Roberts and Mark Ellis banged up, there is a dire need to patch up some roster holes at both second base and the middle infield position.  Sometimes, though, filling in the holes can be rough.  When you’re fishing near the bottom of the waiver wire barrel, the production expectations are usually pretty low, however, here are a pair of guys who just might exceed your expectations. Read the rest of this entry »

Blame it on the injuries.  Blame it on the fact that the once lush and dense forest of talent to be found at third base is thinning out faster than a middle aged guy’s hairline.  Blame it on Rio or the bellboy, I don’t really care.  The fact of the matter is, the position is like a fantasy nightmare that picks right back up where you left off no matter how many times you wake yourself up and try to calmly fall back asleep.  And it just keeps getting scarier each time. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, we rolled out our third basemen rankings for the upcoming season, and although the list gets awfully dicey after the first couple of tiers, there are some names whose stock is up headed into the draft.

Since Howard nicely summarized Pablo Sandoval’s horrific 2010 on and off the field, I’ll leave him off the list, although I’d say he is certainly on several bounce-back radars.

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I’ve done a fair amount of reading on third base rankings headed into the 2011 fantasy baseball season. While most prognosticators and enthusiasts recognize some elite talent at the tippy-top of the list, references such as “terrifying,” “black hole,” and, ahem, “talentless batch of hackers” have described the rest of the list, which I might venture to simply call not terribly deep. Third base will present many managers with a challenge, but I’m not so sure there aren’t some gems to be had in this list.

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All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some third basemen.

Adrian Beltre
When it comes to Beltre, it may all depend on where he signs this offseason. Will he stay in a venue that fits his strengths? My guess is that after playing in Safeco, he won’t play in a pitcher’s park if he can help it. Also, can he perform without his next contract on the line?
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.330, 25 HR
Verdict: Keep. While it’s not star level production, I’ll take that from my starting third baseman.

Mark Reynolds
Believe it or not, you can swallow a .200 average if you’re getting 35 homers. But, is that worth keeping?
Crude 2011 Projection: .230/.340, 30 HR
Verdict: Keep. It’s hard to deal with him, but the power is hard to come by.

Pedro Alvarez
His rookie year has been right in line with my expectations, but a hot September has me dreaming of so much more. He’s still young, and very raw, but the potential is enormous. Can he learn to control the stick with more precision during the offseason? My gut says yes.
Crude 2011 Projection: .265/.345, 24 HR
Verdict: Keep. An above-average 2011 goes down smooth with a great 2012.

Ian Stewart
2009 showed us Stewart’s power potential, while 2010 showed us his improved ability to hit for a decent batting average. If he can put it all together and continue to get a majority of the playing time against righties, he’ll have value.
Crude 2011 Projection: .260/.340, 20 HR, 5 SB
Verdict: Keep. See a pattern yet?

Chase Headley
Headley’s move back to third base proved to be a prudent move by the Padres, as he’s been close to a 5 win player this year. His stolen base numbers have been a big surprise, but his ability on the basepaths will be a key part of his value since he doesn’t hit for much power. He should be entering his peak shortly, so there is no better time than the present for Headley to improve.
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.340, 15 HR, 13 SB
Verdict: Keep. Those numbers are pretty good for a guy who’ll slip in a lot of drafts.

Aramis Ramirez
Even after a horrendous start, Aramis somehow managed to end the season with a decent fantasy line. He still has a lot of problems to work out during this offseason, but he could be a nice option next year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.330, 25 HR
Verdict: Cut. He won’t be worth what you have to pay to keep him, but don’t be afraid to snatch him back up in the draft.

If you have a third basemen you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

It’s been almost six weeks since we updated the rankings for second basemen. Oh, in those hallowed days of yore – six weeks hence I lived in New York City, my commute was filled with tourists and teenagers, six-packs cost $12 and every once in a while human feces was something I had to watch out for. Greatest city in the world. On to the second basemen, with to-date wOBA and ZiPs RoS wOBAs included for your pleasure.

The Top Targets:
Robinson Cano, New York AL (.403 wOBA, .373 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Ian Kinsler, Texas (.359 wOBA, .368 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.381 wOBA, .372 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati (.349 wOBA, .339 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Not much to report here, other than perhaps the fact that some would want Cano in his own tier with Utley and Pedroia down and Kinsler showing much less power than he has in the past. It’s not an unreasonable position. However, the other three guys still have 20/20 type skills, and with Cano’s lack of speed, it makes sense to create this tier.

Strong Secondary Options
Dan Uggla, Florida (.383 wOBA, .365 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (.375 wOBA, .360 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Kelly Johnson, Arizona (.379 wOBA, .373 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.345 wOBA, .347 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Johnson is enjoying the best power production of his career, and his home park might just have a little to do with it. Just look at his home slugging percentage (.605) compared to his road number (.380). It still evens out to an effective second baseman either way. Zobrist is stealing enough bases and showing just enough power to be useful even in this less-exciting version. He could be a mascot for the tier – a little ugly, but getting the job done.

Will They Ever Get it Together This Year:
Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.377 wOBA, .406 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Chone Figgins, Seattle (.305 wOBA, .327 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Brian Roberts, Baltimore (.292 wOBA, .356 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Of course the question with Utley is one of health. The latest reports say the splint is off and he hopes to be back before the end of the month, meaning that he could be a sneaky acquisition for a manager looking for a late boost. In head-to-head leagues in particular, Utley is intriguing as a strong addition for a contending team stocking up for the fantasy playoffs. Since the break, Figgins has been hitting .300 and striking out less, so it’s possible the old Figgins is back and we just didn’t notice. Kinda makes him either over-rated or a buy-low candidate depending on how you parse that statement. There’s a whole lot of rust and a really small sample size for Roberts, so he makes the riskiest buy low of the trio.

Pick ‘Em:
Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (.346 wOBA, .348 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Martin Prado, Atlanta (.364 wOBA, .353 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Ian Stewart, Colorado (.348 wOBA, .346 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Casey McGehee, Milwaukee (.335 wOBA, .327 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Ryan Theriot, Los Angeles (.290 wOBA, .302 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Ty Wigginton, Baltimore (.339 wOBA, .358 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Juan Uribe, San Francisco, (.330 wOBA, .328 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This is a pick ’em tier not because they all have the exact same value. In many leagues, these guys are free agents and their value is close to nil. Of course, deeper league owners are happy to have many of them. It’s the fact that each offers production in a category or two that makes them pick ’ems. Need a little bit of pop? Try Wigginton or Uribe if Stewart is not available. Need some speed? It could be worse than The Riot. Need some batting average help? Polanco can help while Prado is out. The flaws are all there, too, though.

Upside to Join the Top:
Gordon Beckham, Chicago (.296 wOBA, .331 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Aaron Hill, Toronto (.305 wOBA, .327 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (.317 wOBA, .326 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Ian Desmond, Washington (.302 wOBA, .321 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Technically, this group still has the upside to move upwards. They’ve all had some poor batted ball luck – Hill of course the most extreme (.204 BABIP) – and the regressions to their means might give for a nice stretch or two in the final seven weeks. On the other hand, their flaws are also fairly impressive at this point. Hill hits everything in the air to his detriment (52.1% flyballs, 13.2% popups), Desmond reaches a little too often (34.1%, 17.5% more than average) and could make more contact (79.1%, 2.3% below average), and Kendrick still doesn’t have the power (.141 ISO) or the speed (4.9 Speed Score) to make an impact in the counting categories. Beckham hasn’t been too unlucky with his BABIP, and though he does have the flaws to put him in this group (.117 ISO most prominently), his rookie year still shows his upside and makes his owners wonder which Beckham is the true version. These guys have a sliver of hope between them and the next group down.

Filler:
Carlos Guillen, Detroit (.331 wOBA, .353 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Orlando Hudson, Minnesota (.335 wOBA, .342 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Felipe Lopez, St Louis (.323 wOBA, .316 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Alberto Callaspo, Los Angeles AL (.311 wOBA, .324 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Mike Aviles, Kansas City (.300 wOBA, .304 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

This is a new tier, but the name reveals all. It’s nice to get most of the second basemen in the league listed in one place, so this group has a place. That place is probably not on your fantasy team unless most starters in your league are owned. It’s completely possible that not a single guy among the four will crack double-digits in either home runs or steals, or hit .300.