Archive for Ian Stewart

More than a third of the way through the season, let’s see what the list looks like now. To-date wOBA and ZiPs Ros wOBAs included for your pleasure.

The Top Targets:
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.371 wOBA, .401 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
2. Robinson Cano, New York AL (.439 wOBA, .372 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
3. Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.354 wOBA, .365 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
4. Ian Kinsler, Texas (.324 wOBA, .363 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

When you’ve been excellent as long as Chase Utley has, you buy yourself more than a couple months of subpar performance before you give up the top spot (or: if this is what a slump looks like, go get me some pomeade). Ian Kinsler doesn’t quite have the same pedigree, has always had the injuries to contend with, and just has to fall behind Dustin Pedroia and Robinson Cano because of the AL East second basemens’ beastly seasons to date. If you’re giving up on Utley now, please contact me with trade offers because I’m buying.

Still Strong:
5. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati (.373 wOBA, .352 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
6. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.368 wOBA, .362 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
7. Dan Uggla, Florida (.370 wOBA, .356 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Had to split tiers here because some of the medium-style second basemen are having worse-than-mediocre seasons. it’s a tough position when you can only really be satisfied with the top seven. Of course, the argument will be made for some of the guys below, but these seven are the only guys that combine track record with help in the counting stats and don’t hurt too bad in any one place. The good news for Ben Zobrist fans is that even with less power, he’s going to be a strong middle infielder going forward.

Could Still be Strong:
8. Chone Figgins, Seattle (.296 wOBA, .328 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
9. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (.346 wOBA, .345 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
10. Ian Stewart, Colorado (.332 wOBA, .344 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
11. Aaron Hill, Toronto (.296 wOBA, .329 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

These guys are head-scratchers, and there might plenty of moaning about their spots. The thing is, there are glimmers of hope in each case. Chone Figgins is still walking and stealing bases like last year, he’s just striking out a bit much and doesn’t have a nice BABIP like he usually does. His strikeout rate is up almost 5% over his career number and he’s got his second-worst contact rate of his career, but there’s no guarantee that will continue. If he gets hot and ends up with a .280+ average going forward, and finishes like the Dan Uggla of speed at a tough position, he’ll earn this spot. Aaron Hill has a wacky batted ball profile that should get extended coverage soon, but the power is there. If he ends up with Casey McGehee numbers at the end of the year, it’s clear which of the two you want going forward. Rickie Weeks and Ian Stewart will elicit groans from the batting-average lovers, but they do decent work in the counting stats and still could produce mediocre batting averages if they recapture their early-season gains. In a couple weeks, these guys may be re-distributed upwards and downwards (Hill and Stewart, I’m looking in your direction), but I think they merit a little more attention in the meantime.

Flawed but Good:
12. Kelly Johnson, Arizona (.391 wOBA, .373 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
13. Casey McGehee, Milwaukee (.345 wOBA, .324 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
14. Ty Wigginton, Baltimore (.369 wOBA, .353 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
15. Juan Uribe, San Francisco, (.367 wOBA, .341 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
16. Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (.346 wOBA, .343 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
17. Martin Prado, Atlanta (.369 wOBA, .352 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
18. Alberto Callaspo, Kansas City (.320 wOBA, .334 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This is the tier that holds second basemen that fit needs. If you need power, Kelly Johnson, Ty Wigginton, Juan Uribe and McGehee are your men, but all of them but Uribe (!) have already started to taper off and may yet be replaced in this tier. Our skepticism may have been warranted in McGehee’s case. Martin Prado and Placido Polanco will fit the right batting-average starved team better than many teams on the list above them, but neither is a lock to crack as many as 15 home runs, nor do they have speed. None of the bunch really has the upside to be a complete second baseman (except maybe Uribe?!!).

Upside to Join the Top:
19. Brian Roberts, Baltimore (.254 wOBA, .355 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
20. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (.310 wOBA, .329 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
21. Ian Desmond, Washington (.311 wOBA, .324 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
22. Orlando Hudson, Minnesota (.362 wOBA, .346 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
23. Mike Aviles, Kansas City (.321 wOBA, .312 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
24. Felipe Lopez, St Louis (.328 wOBA, .314 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
25. Gordon Beckham, Chicago (.253 wOBA, .328 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
26. Jose Lopez, Seattle (.254 wOBA, .306 ZiPs Ros wOBA)

Brian Roberts continues his long, painful slide and may not be back for another month or two, so it’s hard to place him anywhere but here. Falling along with him are Gordon Beckham and Jose Lopez. When a .597 OPS is ‘picking it up in June,’ it’s hard to be optimistic about Beckham. I still think he’ll get it going, but when is the question, and he’s surely not ownable in the meantime unless you are just stuck with him in a deep league. Repeat that all with a .596 OPS for Lopez, and probably less upside. Ian Desmond and Mike Aviles debut on the list, and have some upside, but Aviles is older than you think, has no power or speed, and Desmond is Kendrick-lite because he has the same lack of counting stats but about half the batting average upside.

This update will have to-date wOBA with RoS projections, too!

The Top Targets:
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.445 wOBA, .414 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
2. Ian Kinsler, Texas (.310 wOBA, .372 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
3. Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.380 wOBA, .368 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
4. Robinson Cano, New York AL (.459 wOBA, .362 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Nothing to report here, other than an ongoing battle to determine the best real-life young second baseman in the American League, with Boston and New York in distinct camps. It seems that once you include defense the battle shifts north slightly but significantly. For our purposes, it’s nice to note Cano’s strong batted ball profile and career-high flyball percentage, which should both serve him well this year.

The Middling Veterans:
5. Chone Figgins, Seattle (.295 wOBA, .336 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
6. Dan Uggla, Florida (.383 wOBA, .356 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
7. Ian Stewart, Colorado (.384 wOBA, .347 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
8. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati (.326 wOBA, .342 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
9. Aaron Hill, Toronto (.327 wOBA, .337 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
10. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.317 wOBA, .351 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
11. Brian Roberts, Baltimore (.255 wOBA, .359 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

There’s some movement here because Roberts is still out and Zobrist is still swinging a limp noodle. Hill lost some ISO too, but he could still put up 2007 stats and be very helpful at this position. The biggest news is the debut of Ian Stewart in this tier. Stewart cut the K’s without losing the power, which means he could have a nicer batting average this year. Since the power and speed are tantalizing, he’s the real streaking youth on this list.

Streaking Youth:
12. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (.369 wOBA, .352 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
13. Kelly Johnson, Arizona (.433 wOBA, .372 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
14. Gordon Beckham, Chicago (.280 wOBA, .339 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Look at what we have here. Kelly Johnson actually bests Ian Stewart by jumping two tiers and streaking right into the upside tier. If he had some speed he might even blow by Weeks, who is doing his customary batting average slump currently but still has his power and speed combo to boast of. Beckham is in danger of dropping out of this tier right here, because he is pressing and striking out too often and just doesn’t look great at the plate right now.

The Leftovers:
14. Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (.327 wOBA, .340 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
15. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (.300 wOBA, .337 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
16. Orlando Hudson, Minnesota (.353 wOBA, .343 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Call this the no-power no-speed tier. These guys really should have Martin Prado in here too. Not sure what else to say, really, except that Polanco has a healthy offense around him that boosts his value.

Upside to Join the Top:
17. Casey McGehee, Milwaukee (.392 wOBA, .328 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
18. Martin Prado, Atlanta (.371 wOBA, .349 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
19. Alberto Callaspo, Kansas City (.361 wOBA, .340 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
20. Jose Lopez, Seattle (.237 wOBA, .312 ZiPs Ros wOBA)
21. Ty Wigginton, Baltimore (.432 wOBA, .357 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
22. Chris Getz, Kansas City (.237 wOBA, .316 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Once your season-long power slump is bad enough that it starts affecting your ZiPs RoS projections, it has to be noted. Jose Lopez isn’t even projected to put up his career ISO the rest of the way, so it’s looking like it might be a bad year for him. Because he’s shown more power in the past than Callaspo, he will probably outperform Callaspo… probably. At least the Royals showed confidence in Callaspo by demoting Alex Gordon. (That’s what they were doing, right?) I also know at least one commenter that will be happy to see Chris Getz on this list, and with 2% ownership in Yahoo, he might still be out there for the taking. He could still best his .275/20 SB projections because most of his slump so far looks BABIP-induced.

Time to update the second basemen, using Fans’ projected wOBAs for another week. Huzzah!

The Top Targets:
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.402 wOBA)
2. Ian Kinsler, Texas (.358 wOBA)
3. Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.360 wOBA)
4. Robinson Cano, New York AL (.370 wOBA)

Not too much to say here really, though it seems that Dustin Pedroia and Robinson Cano have probably moved past Brian Roberts for good by proving, at the very least, that they have not yet peaked. Roberts’ back issues may affect him all year long and dampen his speed, and the younger two guys are showing sweet power right now.

The Middling Veterans:
5. Chone Figgins, Seattle (.347 wOBA)
6. Brian Roberts, Baltimore (.356 wOBA)
7. Dan Uggla, Florida (.354 wOBA)
8. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.408 wOBA)
9. Aaron Hill, Toronto (.357 wOBA)
10. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati (.337 wOBA)

To be honest, it’s hard not to continue dropping Roberts further, but at least he’s in the right tier now. Chone Figgins has had bigger steals years more recently than him and belongs ahead of him anyway. In this week’s edition of Small Sample Size Surprises, Dan Uggla has maintained his overall power while striking out and walking about at about half of his 2009 rates. The most worrisome thing about Ben Zobrist’s poor start is his reduced walk rate, but even if the power regresses from last year’s probable peak, he’ll retain good value at shortstop.

Streaking Youth:
11. Gordon Beckham, Chicago (.361 wOBA)
12. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (.365 wOBA)
13. Ian Stewart, Colorado (.337 wOBA)

Gordon Beckham isn’t exactly streaking to the fore, but he’s still got the upside to move up the list. In the early going, he’s striking out and walking at almost the exact same rate as last year, but reduced power and a poor BABIP are holding him down. ZiPS RoS is still optimistic though. Rickie Weeks looks like he may be in the midst of a career year. While it’s early going, and his BABIP is unsustainable, there’s a lot to like in Weeks this year – he’s combining his best walk rate with his best strikeout rate and his highest ISO, but all three numbers are close to his career norms. Seems organic. The same can be said about Ian Stewart – his current career-best K% is closer to his minor league number than one might expect after last year’s whiffing. His bat is showing light-tower power at this point, too. All three of these guys have a great shot of outperforming the Middling Veterans.

The Leftovers:
14. Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (.321 wOBA)
15. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (.341 wOBA)
16. Jose Lopez, Seattle (.325 wOBA)
17. Orlando Hudson, Minnesota (.342 wOBA)

This group is pretty meh. Polanco looks to be enjoying the new park, but who knows how many home runs that will translate into. He’s a good contributor in runs and RBI though. Howie Kendrick is doing what we thought he could, but it’s still not going to mean a lot of home runs or steals.

Upside to Join the Top:
18. Casey McGehee, Milwaukee (.330 wOBA)
19. Martin Prado, Atlanta (.341 wOBA)
20. Kelly Johnson, Arizona (.338 wOBA)
21. Alberto Callaspo, Kansas City (.347 wOBA)
22. Ty Wigginton, Baltimore (.332 wOBA)

Casey McGehee probably deserves a post of his own, but there are still reasons for skepticism. That he’s showing this level of power for a prolonged period of time is, to say the least, unexpected. Kelly Johnson is showing that his poor 2009 was mostly poor BABIP-driven and is enjoying his new team. Alberto Callaspo is disappearing off of waiver wires currently, but Ty Wigginton that also deserves some attention. He’s got a little pop and everyday at-bats right now and is a great short-term add.

It’s time for another episode of “You can get with that, but this is where it’s at,” boys and girls. This week, we take a look at the heroes manning what may prove to be the thinnest position on the diamond. Where shortstop had such frugal luminaries as Everth Cabrera, Ryan Theriot and Elvis Andrus, and catcher featured thrifty backstops like Miguel Montero and A.J. Pierzynski, we may have a harder time finding values at the hot corner.

As usual, we’ll start in the first tier. You can’t really fault anyone for going big with Alex Rodriguez (despite the hip and the age, 3.37 ADP), David Wright (despite the power outage, 14.76 ADP), Evan Longoria (I don’t see a problem here, 10.28 ADP) or Mark Reynolds (the king of the whiff, 20.17 ADP). Why is Ryan Zimmerman being drafted at the end of the third round (39.78 ADP)? I guess people are suspicious of his career high .233 ISO (and 33 home runs) last year. I take the view that nothing seems out of place for a 25 year-old top prospect with a .229 minor league ISO and a slowly increasing fly ball rate, who is also on the correct side of his peak. Sign me up for some of that in 2010.

The next tier has some svelte athletes (Pablo Sandoval, 44.83 ADP), some slow-footed plodders (Chone Figgins, 77.84 ADP) and some low-contact sluggers (Michael Young, 93.51 ADP). Scarcasm aside, why not take a player with possibly the same amount of risk (and yet bundles of upside) a little bit later than the fellow members of his tier? Gordon Beckham (93.87 ADP) had a good rookie season despite a low line drive percentage (16.6%) that kept his BABIP down (.294), and therefore his batting average (.270). But look at the good side, if you prorate out his stats, he had a 21-home run, 11 stolen-base kind of year, and his line drive rates were much higher in the minor leagues. Even if he just finished out the pro-rated string next year, he’d be an ADP value in his tier. Bend it like Beckham!

Let’s move past mixed metaphors to the final tier. This tier makes you realize how turdly third base truly is this year. You can gamble on next year’s Mark Reynolds with Ian Stewart (131.84 ADP) or put your grandfather Larry Wayne Jones (ADP 134.39) in the position and cross your fingers. The projection systems don’t like the bearded wonder Casey Blake (ADP 162.64) for good reason, as late bloomers are usually early exits. You could say the same about Mark DeRosa (ADP 246.44), really. Who’s to like in this tier?

The answer, in the immortal words of Homer Simpson, is “I… don’t… know.” I’d probably try to avoid the whole situation altogether by drafting a third-sacker earlier. But I think I might take a pair of players from the bottom, and those two might be Adrian Beltre (ADP 199.55) and Alex Gordon (245.03). Some may say that splits aren’t statistically significant, but perhaps that’s not true in Beltre’s case, who has a grand total of 3272 away at-bats away from pitcher’s havens in Los Angeles and Seattle. In those (probably significant at-bats), he’s put up a .287/.338/.488 career line (compared to a .726 OPS at home). I’d just cover my butt with a post-hype sleeper like Gordon, who had been making nice strides in walk rate, strikeout rate, ISO, line drive rate, and reach rate before injury sidelined him last year. I’ll be owning him more than once this year, I’d reckon.

Ah! Let me stop you right there. Jorge Cantu is ranked as a first baseman.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen and first basemen.)

These rankings are for 5×5 rotisserie fantasy baseball. Eligibility was determined by where the player had the most at-bats last year.

To be absolutely precise, there should be down arrows next to Alex Rodriguez and David Wright because they used to be in a tier of their own and now have a little company at the top of the leaderboard. Despite his injured hip, Rodriguez basically replicated his 2008 season and an offseason of rest can only help. RJ Anderson and Dave Allen both covered David Wright and his power outage, and both agree the power should return. The only addition that I have, however crude, is that according to the hittracker, Wright would have only lost two of his 2008 home runs had he played in Citi Field that year. With power and speed, those two still rule the roost, if not as definitively as they have in the past. Ryan Zimmerman and Evan Longoria have joined them at the top and there’s not really much to say other than they just don’t boast the speed upside. They’re still pretty good players, though.

Aramis Ramirez used to be in the top tier. He could still be there. But last year just reminded everyone that he’s a 32-year-old third baseman that has dealt with injuries his whole career and is clearly post-peak. He’s fallen into a tier with some exciting names with risk attached. Pablo Sandoval is everyone’s favorite Panda, but as a BABIP outlier (.356 career, .317 career xBABIP) even his most ardent fan has to admit the risk that the batting average falls and leaves him as a slightly under-powered third baseman minus his best tool. There’s no risk with Mark Reynolds‘ power, but there’s also little likelihood of a nice batting average to go with his power/speed combo. As Dave Allen noted, he makes it work, but you’ll also need to make it work by making up for his batting average if you pick him. Dave Cameron showed how Chone Figgins has upped his walk rates through his career and made himself into a better player, but any 32-year-old that makes his living with his feet carries inherent risk. Plus, he offers no power. Gordon Beckham has a nice power/speed package going, but he’ll need to hit more line drives (16.6%) next year in order to get the batting average up. Michael Young doesn’t have the batting average problem, but he has power that oscillates from poor to mediocre.

The final tier is where the veterans go to finish their careers. Ian Stewart is the only upside play of the bunch, and he needs to strike out a little less (32.5% in 2009, 27.6% career) and hit some more line drives (14.1% in 2009, 18.2% career) so that the batting average can find its way to respectable. Obviously, he has power. Chipper Jones is the best of the post-peak guys, but he carries the most injury risk as well. Casey Blake, Mike Lowell, Mark DeRosa and Adrian Beltre can be picked out of the same bag using a blindfold. Admittedly, Beltre will cost the least, but getting him out of Safeco may mean that he will contribute similar stats to the other veterans in this tier.

In general, this is one of the more shallow positions in fantasy baseball. In a roto league, an owner betting on a final-tier third baseman is a step behind. The top two tiers offer some good value, but make sure you get your third baseman relatively early in 2010.

As you’ve probably already heard from some of the other great sites covering minor league baseball around The Net, the annual Futures Game rosters have been announced. And, as usually, both the U.S. roster and the World roster are stuffed with talented prospects.

One interesting name of the U.S roster is second baseman Eric Young Jr. of the Colorado Rockies. For whatever reason, though, the Rockies organization is not nearly as enamored with the infielder as I am… which is odd given the marketing angle with Young Jr.’s father Eric Sr. having been the Rockies’ first ever second baseman back in 1993. The younger Young also has a proven minor league track record of success at the plate and on the base paths, which should make this a match made in heaven.

The 24-year-old speedster is still plugging away in triple-A midway through the 2009 season, despite the fact that be performed very well in double-A last year, as well as in the Arizona Fall League. This season, Young has a triple-slash line of .292/.383/.413 in 264 at-bats, along with 43 stolen bases in 51 attempts. The switch-hitter also has a respectable walk rate of 11.1% and has decreased his strikeout rate by three percent over last year to 16.3%.

Currently, the Rockies’ MLB roster boasts three players who are capable of playing second base: Clint Barmes (.275/.322/.470), Omar Quintanilla (.222/.344/.259), and Ian Stewart (.218/.300/.479). Not one member of the trio has played well enough this season to warrant a regular gig. Obviously, Quintanilla would be the easiest player to jettison, while leaving Barmes to back-up the middle infield and Stewart to back-up the infield corners.

Barmes has seen the most playing time at second base this season and he has an OK batting average, but he’s not really providing much else – just slightly above-average power and limited base-stealing skills. Young, on the other hand, could provide some much-needed speed to the Rockies lineup with his ability to steal 40-60 bases over the course of a full season. He also has surprising pop, which could be aided by the Colorado air.

Looking ahead, Barmes will be entering his second year of arbitration eligibility this winter and is already making $1.6 million. Perhaps the Rockies could save some money by flipping Barmes to a contender (like the Mets? Or Cincinnati?) before the trading deadline and receive back a B-level prospect. The worst case scenario would have Young falling flat on his face, which would mean that the club would have to toss $1.5 to $3 million at a veteran second base in the off-season, which be about the same amount it would cost to keep Barmes in the fold for the 2010 season.

Hopefully you were able to pick up Gavin Floyd and trade Mark DeRosa last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Ian Stewart – Last year Stewart had a .364 BABIP in the majors. This year he checks in with a .244 mark in the category, so there is a lot of room for growth in his low average. Obviously, he cannot keep up his insane power numbers, either the .286 ISO or the 21.6 percent HR/FB. But Stewart has claimed a full-time job, has cut down some on his strikeouts from last year and either has or is on the doorstep to eligibility at both 2B and 3B depending on your league format. And if you think he is simply a Coors Field product, Stewart is batting just .120 with only four of his 11 HR in his home park.

Scott Baker – Yes, the home runs are absolutely killing him. Hopefully, his 2.26 HR/9 rate will fall significantly. But even with that HR rate, his FIP is lower than his ERA and the 64.2 percent strand rate shows he has had some bad luck, too. And his WHIP and K numbers are already solid.

Laynce Nix – In the early part of the decade, Nix was one of the top prospects in baseball. John Sickels called him “a potential Seven Skill player” following the 2002 season and Baseball America ranked him on their Top 100 Prospect List (85) following the 2003 campaign. And then the injuries started piling up. Now Nix is finally healthy, getting playing time and producing. The AVG is as high as it is going to get but anyone looking for a cheap source of power should invest here. The updated ZiPS projection shows him finishing with 21 HR in 362 AB and he is likely to get more playing time than that.

Mike MacDougal – The one-time Kansas City closer is now the closer in Washington. There is no guarantee as to how long he will have the job, but Joel Hanrahan has already lost the position twice. Owned in fewer than two percent of ESPN leagues, MacDougal could be an easy source of saves.

Trade

Michael Young – It is time to look to sell high on Young. He has great stats, name recognition and multiple position eligibility, so there should be no problem finding a taker. He also has a .361 BABIP and a career-best .200 ISO, thanks in large part to a HR/FB mark of 14.3 percent, also a career-best and virtually double the mark he posted in 2008.

Erik Bedard – Another sell-high candidate, Bedard has pitched great this season. But his FIP is a run higher than his ERA and his 83.6 percent strand rate is the seventh-highest mark in the majors. Like Young, Bedard should still be a valuable fantasy player even if/when regression hits. Trading them now is just trying to maximize their value and not any indictment of their skills.

Mike Lowell – A hot start by Lowell, combined with an injury to Jed Lowrie and the decline of David Ortiz, has caused the 35-year-old third baseman to play 55 of the first 57 games for the Red Sox. In his first 30 games, Lowell batted .314 with six HR in 117 AB. Since then he is batting .275 with three HR in 102 AB. That could easily be random fluctuation. But combined with the collapse of his walk rate, a career-low 3.9 percent, following back-to-back years of 8.3 percent, it may be a more ominous sign.

Josh Outman – The production of the A’s young pitching staff has been a wonderful story the past few weeks. Unfortunately, Outman’s peripherals do not match his 4-0 record nor his 3.17 ERA. His FIP checks in at 4.20 and as you might guess, his BABIP is .246 and his strand rate is 74.8 percent.

Derrek Lee – A hot streak the last three weeks, in which Lee hit .364, has his AVG for the season up to .262 after it was beneath the Mendoza Line in mid-May. But Lee is still hitting for even less power than he did the past two seasons. ZiPS now forecasts him to finish the year with 17 HR. And the SB which helped prop up his value last year are missing, too. Lee currently has zero steals.

In 2008, Ian Stewart posted a .259/.349/.455 line with ten homers in 266 at bats. However, Stewart also struck out in 35% of his at bats. His .259 batting average was inflated by a .362 BABIP – yes, he hit line drives on 25% of his balls in play, suggesting that his BABIP was not abnormally high, but that line-drive percentage was well out of line with line-drive percentages that he had put up throughout his career, and there’s no reason to think that it (or the high BABIP) will continue next season. Thus, it would follow that Stewart’s batting average should fall.

But no so fast. Stewart struck out a LOT this year – in fact, only five players with at least 200 plate appearances struck out more often. However, Stewart’s plate discipline from this year, as well as his minor league track record, both suggest that he will not continue to strike out as often in the future.

In triple-A this year, Stewart struck out in 25.7% of his at bats. Last year in triple-A he struck out in 22.2% of his at bats. In fact, throughout his minor league career Stewart struck out in 23.6% of his at bats, despite being young for his level most of the time.

Of course, it’s more difficult to hit in the majors than in the minors. That being said, Stewart’s plate discipline numbers also suggest that his strikeout rate will come down in the future.

Stewart only swung at 28.5% of pitches out of the strike zone – right at major league average in 2008. Even more telling, however, is his contact percentage. Stewart made contact with 71.3% of the pitches he swung at – a low number, yes, but higher than other players with similar strikeout rates. For example, Mark Reynolds, Jack Cust, and Ryan Howard made contact with 62.3%, 65.1%, and 66.5% of the pitches they swung at, respectively.

Furthermore, Stewart is only 23 years old. Yes, he will probably strike out a lot in the future, but he is quite unlikely to strike out in 35% of his at bats, as he did this year. Therefore, even if his BABIP falls next year (which it probably will), his batting average may not fall if he indeed strikes out less often.

Stewart also hit a high proportion of fly balls this year, both in the majors and the minors. However, last year more than half of his balls in play were grounders. If Stewart can maintain his high amount of fly balls, Coors Field will allow him to hit a lot of homers. If he reverts to his groundballing ways, his power will suffer.

While Stewart is raw and rather risky, he has a lot of upside, especially given the fact that he plays for Colorado and will qualify at third base. If he can cut is strikeout rate, his batting average won’t fall too much even after his BABIP falls, and if Stewart can continue to hit lots of fly balls he could produce excellent power numbers.