Keeper Conundrums: Third Base
All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some third basemen.
Adrian Beltre
When it comes to Beltre, it may all depend on where he signs this offseason. Will he stay in a venue that fits his strengths? My guess is that after playing in Safeco, he won’t play in a pitcher’s park if he can help it. Also, can he perform without his next contract on the line?
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.330, 25 HR
Verdict: Keep. While it’s not star level production, I’ll take that from my starting third baseman.
Mark Reynolds
Believe it or not, you can swallow a .200 average if you’re getting 35 homers. But, is that worth keeping?
Crude 2011 Projection: .230/.340, 30 HR
Verdict: Keep. It’s hard to deal with him, but the power is hard to come by.
Pedro Alvarez
His rookie year has been right in line with my expectations, but a hot September has me dreaming of so much more. He’s still young, and very raw, but the potential is enormous. Can he learn to control the stick with more precision during the offseason? My gut says yes.
Crude 2011 Projection: .265/.345, 24 HR
Verdict: Keep. An above-average 2011 goes down smooth with a great 2012.
Ian Stewart
2009 showed us Stewart’s power potential, while 2010 showed us his improved ability to hit for a decent batting average. If he can put it all together and continue to get a majority of the playing time against righties, he’ll have value.
Crude 2011 Projection: .260/.340, 20 HR, 5 SB
Verdict: Keep. See a pattern yet?
Chase Headley
Headley’s move back to third base proved to be a prudent move by the Padres, as he’s been close to a 5 win player this year. His stolen base numbers have been a big surprise, but his ability on the basepaths will be a key part of his value since he doesn’t hit for much power. He should be entering his peak shortly, so there is no better time than the present for Headley to improve.
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.340, 15 HR, 13 SB
Verdict: Keep. Those numbers are pretty good for a guy who’ll slip in a lot of drafts.
Aramis Ramirez
Even after a horrendous start, Aramis somehow managed to end the season with a decent fantasy line. He still has a lot of problems to work out during this offseason, but he could be a nice option next year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.330, 25 HR
Verdict: Cut. He won’t be worth what you have to pay to keep him, but don’t be afraid to snatch him back up in the draft.
If you have a third basemen you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
Jose Bautista?
Keep. You didn’t pay anything for him, so I don’t why it’s even a question.
What about Bautista in a 15 team deep league where guys not drafted can only be kept with a 5th round pick?
Pablo Sandoval
Good one. He’ll be included next week.
Casey Mcgehee? Will he be somewhere inbetween 2009 and 10?
Does it matter if Prince is traded?
Mike did something on McGehee last night. Read that.
Scott Rolen
Viciedo? Josh Bell? (deep AL only league)
Alex Rodriguez–assuming he has a high keeper cost (e.g. 2nd or 3rd round / 15% of the auction budget in a 14-team mixed league.
Not worth it.
How about A-Rod in an AL-only using standard 5categories plus OBP at 15% of total cap?
I disagree, A-rod in his worst season still consistantly outperforms other 3rd basemen.
or you could expect beltre to do this again, laff.
I have two keeper spots between Carlos Gonzalez, Ryan Braun, and Ryan Zimmerman. I know 3rd base is very thin, but I honestly go back and forth between all three and can’t choose. Any thoughts?
Zimmerman for sure. Close between the other two, but I’d lean toward Braun because I expect Gonzalez to regress.
Might depend on the keeper format. If you can keep a player long-term, I might choose Gonzales and still have me a first round pick!
I read the McGehee piece and I plan on keeping him; but McGehee or Alvarez? Though I could just demote Alvarez to the minor leagues if his K% doesnt come down.
Michael Young
Dan Johnson will actually qualify for 3B in my 20-team Dynasty League next year, and my starter is (gulp) Ty Wigginton. Also, it’s a league that uses OBP in place of average. Am I insane, or does the Great Pumpkin actually have a snowflake’s chance of helping me out next year?
Chris Johnson?
Michael Cuddyer has 3B elig. on Yahoo.
David Freese: for those of us who hung on to him despite the injury.
Michael Young, in a 12-team league with 10 keepers per team.
Second time I’ve heard Young, so on my list he goes.
David Freese – he’s in my minor system but I either have to play him or cut him next year. 12 teams, two 3B per team, no reserve players. He’d only cost me $1 of my $100 cap and I have Wright as my other 3B.
keep. he showed glimpses of a productive player early in 2010, and with the lack of depth at 3b, the cardinals are counting on him being a primary player. Assuming he stays healthy and isn’t restrained by his injury, his cheap value in such a deep league makes it worth it.
I’ve got Freese also, and no other 3B. I’m undecided. I’d like to have seen a bit more power.
Any thoughts on Chris Johnson?
nice 1 keep it up.
Thanks for informative post.