Archive for gaby sanchez

After 7 disappointing years under Jack Zduriencik (which followed 5 soul-crushing seasons under Bill Bavasi), new Mariners’ GM, Jerry Dipoto, raced up I-5 with a mandate to bring consistency and a fresh approach to the Emerald City. Faced with a number of holes to fill, the former Angels exec has already made a series of moves signaling a shift in the Mariners’ philosophy towards defense and on-base ability, a welcomed change from that of the last regime’s affinity for low on-base, immobile power hitters who strike out a lot. Huzzah.

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We’re a third of the through the season, so I’d like to take a look at which players have provided the best production relative to their auction cost in ottoneu leagues…and by extension, probably much of fantasy baseball.  While this is specific to ottoneu, I think this will apply to most of fantasy baseball.

We’ll start today with catchers and corner infielders.  I’ll give you the top three values at that position, plus my pick for the player of those three that is least likely to regress (or, perhaps, the player likely to regress the least).   Avg. Cost is just their current average cost in ottoneu, whereas the “Performed As” number is essentially an measure of what the dollar value would be for performance at this level for an entire season (using the lwts-based FanGraphs Points system; methods description at the bottom).  Expect this to change by season’s end: these guys are all overperforming, and are all good bets to regress to some degree.

Catcher

My Pick: Ramon Hernandez Read the rest of this entry »

Here are two hitters with single-digit ownership rates who deserve more attention…

Gaby Sanchez, Marlins (owned in 5% of Yahoo Leagues)

A 2005 fourth-round pick out of the University of Miami, Sanchez is keeping first base warm for top prospect Logan Morrison. However, Morrison’s ascent has been temporarily slowed by a right shoulder injury, and Sanchez is performing well.

Owning a career .302/.392/.485 line in the minors, the 26-year-old righty batter is hitting .283/.362/.469 in 127 plate appearances, with a .365 wOBA. Known for a discerning eye that allowed him to walk in 12 percent of his PA on the farm, Sanchez has actually swung at a good deal of pitches out of the zone this season (32.8%, compared to the 27.3% MLB average in 2010). He still has a solid 10.2 BB%, though, and he’s showing more power than expected with a .186 ISO.

There’s not a ton of upside here: Sanchez is a mid-twenties prospect with mid-range pop at a position where players are supposed to mash. But he’s not a bad option in NL-only leagues.

Luke Scott, Orioles (7%)

Even after popping home runs against the Mariners on May 12 and May 13, Scott’s .232/.290/.475 triple-slash looks weak. However, the 31-year-old has gotten hosed on balls put in play. His BABIP sits at .246, compared to a career .295 mark.

Granted, Scott is venturing out of the strike zone more than he usually does. His outside swing percentage, 23.4 for his career, is 31.7 percent in 2010. That explains his career-low 7.5 percent walk rate. But in more than 1,900 career plate appearances with the Astros and O’s, Scott has taken a free pass 10.9 percent while batting .262/.346/.493 (.358 wOBA). It seems unlikely that he suddenly caught Francoeur-itis.

Scott’s rest-of-season ZiPS projection is .252/.335/.478, with a .356 wOBA. Given his multi-position eligibility (outfield and first base), he’s worth a roster spot in AL-only formats.

On their way to New York to play the Mets on Opening Day, the Marlins stopped in at Greensboro on Saturday, the home of their Single-A affiliate in the South Atlantic League. It was a big deal in Greensboro and it gave the city a chance to see major league talent up close. The big attractions were stars like Hanley Ramirez, Jorge Cantu and Dan Uggla. But just as important to the crowd was the chance to catch up with former members of both the Greensboro Bats and Greensboro Grasshoppers.

In all, eight players on the Marlins Travel Roster played minor league ball in Greensboro. Neither Josh Johnson nor Chris Volstad appeared Saturday, meaning that the biggest local star for the Marlins was 2009 Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan. The Marlins hope they will have another candidate for Rookie of the Year Award honors this year with Gaby Sanchez, who won the first base job in Spring Training.

Most people consider Logan Morrison to be the Marlins’ first baseman of the future but Sanchez gets first crack to establish himself in the majors. I got to ask some of the coaches about the two youngsters, the decision-making process and the future for both players.

Manager Fredi Gonzalez insisted that the first base job was up for grabs and that Morrison would have been the choice with a better Spring.

“(Sanchez) came into Spring Training in open competition with Logan Morrison, another Hopper,” Gonazlez said. “He won the competition. That’s not saying anything bad about Logan Morrison because he’s going to be a very good major leaguer. Gaby won that competition and is going to start the season with us. Now he’s got to produce. If it doesn’t happen, which I hope doesn’t happen, Logan Morrison is a pretty good backup plan.”

Hitting coach Jim Presley also said that it was a Spring Training decision.

“Two great young players going head-to-head,” Presley described the situation. “Obviously Gaby won that one, he hit over .400 and Morrison had a little bit of a struggle early. Gaby’s a little bit ahead of him right now but Morrison has a little bit of a bad hand from last year and I think that affected him a little bit. He’s going to be a great hitter. He’s going to be in the big leagues pretty soon and going to be there for a long time.”

Putting aside the wisdom of deciding a starting job based on 55 at-bats for Sanchez (.364/.410/.582) and 43 for Morrison (.209/.244/.326), the fact that Morrison was in line for a job after just 278 at-bats above A-ball shows how much the organization values the 22-year old.

“He stays inside the ball and has big-time juice,” Presley said of Morrison. “He hits the ball the other way so well we were trying to get him to turn on the ball in. He started doing that. He’s going to play in the big leagues, there’s no doubt about that.”

Last year, 12 of the 25 qualified first basemen in the majors hit 30 HR. Neither Sanchez nor Morrison projects with that type of power right now but Presley was unconcerned about that.

About Sanchez, Presley said, “Could he hit 20 in the big leagues? Sure. Will he hit 30? Probably not. He’s got the right approach and he’s going to hit .300 in the big leagues for you. He’s not your prototypical power hitting first baseman but he knows what he’s doing.”

The four projection systems on FanGraphs predict Sanchez to hit from between .270 and .279 this season. The big difference is playing time. Marcel gives him only 212 ABs while ZiPS projects 480. The most HR projected by any system is 15.

Presley noted that Morrison’s hand injury limited his chances to win the starting job this year.

“He was recovered from it but he didn’t get to play a lot and I think that affected him,” Presley said. “He had to take the winter off and kind of let it regroup. Guys trying to win a position, you want to see them go to Winter Ball and Gaby did that. He went to the Dominican and played and that made a difference.”

In 26 games in the DWL, Sanchez posted a .232/.333/.453 line in 95 at-bats.

Gonzalez indicated that the club has considered a plan to get both Sanchez and Morrison in the lineup at the same time.

“You could move Coghlan to second and put Morrison in left field and there you go,” Gonzalez said. “But who knows, down the road you make a few moves and that plan goes out the window.”

Bench coach Carlos Tosca agreed that if the two were to be in the same lineup, it would be Morrison as the one to switch positions.

“Mo would be more of a candidate to do that than Gaby would,” Tosca said.

While Tosca seemed doubtful of them both playing together, he did think either could be assets defensively at first base.

“Defensively they’re good first basemen. They play a little different. Gaby’s a little more of a routine type of guy while Mo is a little more fly by the seat of your pants type guy but they both have a chance to be good first basemen.”

Sanchez got off to a rough start defensively but he did deliver two hits on Opening Day. But even if he struggles offensively, expect Sanchez to get enough time to work out of any slumps.

“If you know anything about our manager,” Tosca said, “ he’s a very patient man. He’s going to give Gaby or anybody else an opportunity to show what they’re capable of doing.”

So Morrison finds himself at Triple-A New Orleans, which opens its season on Thursday. Gonzalez referenced Coghlan when asked about a potential promotion for Morrison in 2010. After putting up a .970 OPS in 25 games in New Orleans last year, Coghlan got the call to the majors in the second week of May.

The lesson for Morrison and his fantasy owners is that if he produces in Triple-A, he will get a shot. Of course, Coghlan came up to provide infield depth and because he produced he worked his way into the starting job in left field. So if Morrison does get a promotion, it does not necessarily mean that Sanchez is heading to the bench.

This year could be a make-or-break year for Sanchez, at least with the Marlins. If he does not establish himself as a starter this year, it will likely be much more difficult fending off Morrison after he has a full year in the high minors under his belt. But at the same time, fantasy owners of Sanchez should be encouraged that he will not get yanked at the first sign of trouble.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future.

Zach Stewart: A 2008 third-round pick out of Texas Tech, Stewart has had no problems dominating hitters in professional baseball. His up-and-down college career included stints in both the starting rotation and the bullpen. His pro career has been no different; Stewart spent his debut season in the ‘pen before moving to the rotation in 2009. He made seven starts in both high-A and double-A before moving back to the bullpen with a recent promotion to triple-A. That moves pretty much signifies that the Cincinnati organization views Stewart, 22, as a prospect that can help the club in the not-too-distant future. In double-A, the right-hander allowed just 29 hits in 37 innings of work while posting rates of 2.43 BB/9 and 7.54 K/9. He also does a nice job of keeping balls-in-play on the ground.

Cody Satterwhite: Detroit loves big-time arms, and Satterwhite is yet another college product that fits the bill. A 2008 second round draft pick out of Mississippi, the right-hander’s results have never matched up to his stuff (He was heavily scouted coming out of high school too, with the same knock against him). Satterwhite has been moved aggressively through the system by the Tigers, not unlike Ryan Perry. Satterwhite, 22, has posted a 9.8 K/9 strikeout rate to this point in his career, but he’s also been too hittable (9.0 H/9), while also allowing too many base runners via the walk (5.4 BB/9). With Detroit’s pitching depth still pretty weak – and with the bullpen struggling and unproven – Satterwhite may get a taste of the big leagues before he’s ready.

Phillippe Aumont: Staying with the theme of rushing pitchers, you can’t write on the topic without mentioning the No. 1 club for rushing prospects: The Seattle Mariners. Aumont was a highly-regarded prep pitcher when he was drafted in the first round of the 2007 draft. Everyone knew he had great stuff but he was extremely raw as a pitcher after growing up in Quebec, Canada. Despite his rough edges, Aumont has had a lot of success in pro ball, including at the extreme hitter’s domain known as High Desert (high-A). Pitching in the offense-oriented California League earlier this season, Aumont posted a 3.24 ERA (3.53 FIP) and allowed just 24 hits in 33.1 innings of work. He also posted a walk rate of 3.24 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.45 K/9. Now in double-A, he’s continued to pitch well, leading to the possibility that he could help Seattle by the end of 2009 – or certainly early on in 2010.

Henry Rodriguez: Rodriguez deserves to be lumped in with the pitchers above because he’s a hard-throwing reliever, but he hasn’t flown through the minors like the others. In fact, he’s been teasing the A’s with his potential since Stewart and Satterwhite were freshmen in college. Rodriguez appeared to be on the verge of a breakout season with a dominating performance in high-A ball in 2008, but the wheels fell off with a promotion to double-A. Rodriguez is looking better in triple-A this season, although he’s thrown just 15.2 innings (with a strikeout rate of 14.36 K/9). Control continues to be his biggest issue (5.17 BB/9) and he’s still pretty much a one-pitch pitcher with a fastball that can touch 100 mph.

Bryan Petersen: In the pre-season, I highlighted Petersen as one of my favorite sleeper prospects because of his intriguing combination of power and speed. The outfielder got off to a bit of a slow start in 2009 at the double-A level, but he’s picked things up since the beginning of June and is hitting .395 in his last 10 games. Petersen is still not hitting for power (.085 ISO) but his average is up to .288 and he’s got his strikeout rate under control (19.8 K%). He could probably hit right-handed MLB pitchers right now (.309 average) but the left-handed hitter still struggles against southpaws (.211 in 57 at-bats). Petersen stands to benefit from Florida’s lack of minor-league outfield depth. He certainly has more upside than a player like Alejandro De Aza.

Gaby Sanchez: Staying with the Florida theme, you have to figure the club is going to realize the error of its ways with playing Emilio Bonifacio everyday at third base. With the club inches from first place in the National League East, the team could use some consistent offense from the position and Bonifacio has proven that he is not the player to provide it. Sanchez, a converted first baseman, has been playing third base at triple-A. He’s not going to win any gold gloves out there, but his defense is no worse than Bonifacio’s and his bat has much more potential. Sanchez is currently hitting .298/.366/.462 with seven homers in 171 at-bats.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future.

Tim Alderson: We hear a lot about Madison Bumgarner and deservedly so, but Alderson could very well beat the big left-hander to the Majors. Like Bumgarner, Alderson was drafted out of high school in the 2007 draft. Although his stuff is not as electric, he has better overall command and control. In fact, Alderson, 20, has walked just five batters all season (58.2 innings), including two in six double-A starts. If a spot is not open in the starting rotation for the right-hander, he could initially slide into the bullpen to offer some long relief.

Blake Parker: It’s been an interesting ride through the minors for the Cubs prospects, but he’s finally nearing his shot. Originally a 16th round selection in 2006 out of the University of Arkansas, Parker started out his pro career as a third base, but did not hit very well. With a strong arm, the club moved him to the mound and his career took off. The right-hander features a good sinker that can touch 95 mph and his secondary stuff, a slider and changeup, is improving rapidly. So far this season, he has yet to allow a home run in 24.1 innings and he’s striking out more than 11 batters per nine innings. His control (13 walks) still needs a little work.

Luis Perez: The Jays took a gamble on aggressively promoting Perez from low-A to double-A to begin the 2009 season. The southpaw was older (22) than the traditional Latin player when he came over to North America in 2007. He throws harder than most left-handers and he gets an incredible amount of ground balls to go along with a healthy dose of strikeouts. He has a ground-ball rate of 57.2% in 2009 despite the two-level jump and it was 60.6% in 2008. If he can sharpen his command just a bit more, he has the makings of a No. 3 or 4 starter. Worst case scenario, he could be a loogy, with left-handed batters hitting just .188 against him at double-A.

Chris Heisey: Everyone just keeps waiting for Heisey’s hot streak to come to an end. Cincinnati’s double-A outfielder, though, just keeps getting stronger with a line of .370/.446/.621 in 219 at-bats. He also has 11 home runs and 11 stolen bases and has walked more than he’s struck out (1.17 BB/K). Heisey hit .338 in April, .404 in May, and he’s well above .300 in June so far. It’s about time for Cincinnati to find room in triple-A for the 24-year-old prospect.

Michael Brantley: One of the pieces that Cleveland acquired for C.C. Sabathia, Brantley just keeps doing what he does best: Hit. Only 22, he’s already playing in triple-A and has a line of .275/.354/.381 with 19 steals in 218 at-bats. The left-handed hitter has a career .306 average and he has stolen 123 bases in 154 attempts (80%). He’s also walked 50 times more than he’s struck out in his career, which bodes extremely well for a top-of-the-order hitter. Brantley’s biggest weakness is his below-average defense in the outfield.

Scott Sizemore: Detroit desperately needs depth in the minor league system, so it’s nice to see a prospect improving his value in the upper levels of the minor league system. Sizemore has advanced through the system rather slowly for a college-drafted player but he’s almost MLB ready now. The second baseman has shown improved numbers in 2009 with a line of .306/.403/.532 and nine homers in 216 at-bats. The 24-year-old infielder has the potential to produce at least a few above-average offensive seasons, especially with his increased power numbers (perhaps stemming from being healthy after a hand injury in 2008).

Gaby Sanchez: The Florida Marlins team has had a tough year and the club has quickly slid down the standings in the National League East. If the team continues to struggle, current first baseman Jorge Cantu could find himself on the way out of town in return for some cheaper talent. If that happens, Sanchez could earn a shot as the everyday first baseman. He almost earned the opening day assignment (with Cantu manning third), but a poor spring doomed him to triple-A and then he was sidelined with an injury. Now healthy, he’s hitting .337/.409/.515 in 21 games.

Leading up to the beginning of the 2009 season, Rotographs will be looking at the top 30 prospects (in no particular order) who enter the season having the best chances to make an impact at the Major League level this year.

The Florida Marlins organization is no stranger to relying on rookies. The club has a revolving door at just about every position, and that door starts swinging about the time a player enters his first or second year of arbitration eligibility. The first-base position is no different this season, with Gaby Sanchez as the favorite to replace the dearly-departed Mike Jacobs, who was traded this past off-season to Kansas City for reliever Leo Nunez.

Sanchez was a fourth-round selection by the Marlins out of the University of Miami in 2005. He was originally drafted as a catcher, but moved out to first base and has spent just 13 games at his former position. Sanchez has also played third base in the minors but had a .938 fielding percentage – and below average range – in 62 games at the hot corner at Double-A in 2008.

Offensively, Sanchez has had a solid minor league career and sports a career line of .305/.397/.487 in four minor league seasons. Aside from his 2008 MLB stint, he has not played above Double-A. In 2008 at that level, he hit .314/.404/.513 with an ISO of .199 in 478 at-bats. Sanchez also stole 17 bases (but was caught eight times) and posted solid rates: 12.6 BB% and 14.6 K%. In his MLB debut, he appeared in just five games and went 3-for-8 (.375) with two doubles and two strikeouts.

As mentioned earlier, Sanchez will be replacing Jacobs, who mashed 32 home runs last season and posted a line of .247/.299/.514 with 93 RBI in 477 at-bats. Jacobs’ ISO was .266 and he posted rates of 7.0 BB% and 24.9 K%. The Marlins (likely) new first baseman will not be able to compete in the home run or RBI departments, but he will provide a much better average, as well as some other secondary stats.

Among the projection systems at FanGraphs, the consensus seems to be that Sanchez, 25, will hit about .272/.346/.430 with 15 home runs or so. Personally, I would expect a higher average, perhaps around .285, along with 15-17 homers, 30-35 doubles, and 65-70 RBI depending on his line-up position. He should also be good for about 10 stolen bases, with is a nice little bonus for a first baseman.

Sanchez’ biggest competition for playing time appears to be former Angels’ prospect Dallas McPherson, who had an excellent Triple-A season in 2008 and hit 42 home runs in 448 at-bats, while playing in a very good hitter’s park. Non-roster invitee Jay Gibbons could also see time at first base, if he looks good this spring. Long-term, the first base job will likely belong to prospect Logan Morrison, 21, who will open 2009 in Double-A. Sanchez obviously has a fairly narrow window in which to establish himself, so keep that in mind in keeper leagues.