Archive for fantasy relief pitchers

Another exciting night of bullpen activity with full slate of games on Friday…

• Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto indicated in an interview on Fantasy Sports Radio that 26-year-old James Pazos could be first in line for save opportunities while Edwin Diaz works through mechanical issues that led to his demotion from the closer’s role earlier this week. Pazos has intriguing numbers across the board in 18.2 innings this year: he boasts a strong 30.9% strikeout rate, a 60.9% ground ball rate, and a tidy 2.41 ERA/2.66 FIP/2.78 xFIP. Diaz was so dominant last season that it remains likely he will eventually harness his mechanics and find his way back into the Seattle bullpen’s most prominent role. He pitched two scoreless innings on Friday, in which he allowed two hits and notched two strikeouts in the eighth and ninth innings of a tie game at home. Despite the scoreless outing, Pazos is worth a speculative add in most formats in case he gets an opportunity to close and runs with it. His numbers seem to indicate that he’s capable of doing so.

• Seung Hwan Oh blew a one-run save opportunity against the Giants on Friday. He allowed two singles and a go-ahead two-run double. Oh is now 10 for 12 in save opportunities, a nice recovery in that department after a very shaky start to the season. However, Oh’s peripherals point to a problem: his 16.3% strikeout rate this year is roughly half of the 32.9% K% he put up last season. He’s also allowed three home runs and nine walks in 21.1 innings. Add it all up, and Oh has an unsightly 4.91 FIP and 5.70 xFIP. Meanwhile, former closer Trevor Rosenthal has been mostly terrific in a set-up role (although he was charged with a blown save in Wednesday’s extra-inning loss to the Red Sox). Rosenthal has a 44.3% strikeout rate in 15.1 innings, and he should represent a threat to the struggling Oh. If Oh can’t turn it around soon, the Cardinals may have to make a move. The situation has been updated to yellow.

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Aroldis Chapman, Zach Britton, Mark Melancon, and Jeurys Familia are on the disabled list. Edwin Diaz, Seung Hwan Oh, Kelvin Herrera, and Sam Dyson have had major difficulties. Greg Holland, Justin Wilson, Corey Knebel, and Bud Norris have been unexpected studs.

If you find yourself frustrated with the volatility of relief pitcher performance, you’re probably not alone. The names above represent just a handful of seemingly dozens of unexpected developments in the relief pitcher landscape that take place throughout the course of season and affect major league rosters and fantasy teams alike.

For example, a few weeks ago, I traded $6 Edwin Diaz and $3 Carter Capps for $9 Mitch Haniger in an Ottoneu fantasy league. Later, I flipped the $9 Haniger for a $9 Gary Sanchez. Read the rest of this entry »

Most of this report was done on Saturday, but there was one major piece of news on Sunday:

• Aroldis Chapman was placed on the 10-day disabled list with rotator cuff inflammation. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said that Chapman will rest for a minimum of two weeks, at which time his condition will be re-evaluated, and that Chapman is “probably looking at [missing] a minimum of a month if everything goes right.” Chapman has reportedly been experiencing discomfort in the shoulder since late April, and he had to be removed mid-inning in his last two outings due to ineffectiveness. In Chapman’s place, Dellin Betances will have an opportunity to prove his worth as a closer. Yankees president Randy Levine and Betances’s agent had a public spat in February over the pitcher’s arbitration hearing that determined his 2017 salary. Levine vocalized his opinion that Betances sought too much money for a non-closer. Whether or not he’s accruing saves, Betances is an elite reliever, and now he will have a chance to prove it, at least for a month. If Betances wasn’t already owned in all formats, he should be now. Meanwhile, Chapman should be held onto in all formats, because he is arguably the best reliever in baseball when healthy. The Bullpen Report will continue to provide updates on the situation as they become available.

Now for the notes from Saturday: Read the rest of this entry »

It was another fun weekend for bullpen activity across the major leagues. There was some all-too-familiar drama for a few teams, an injury to a key closer, and a couple of spectacular performances by an underrated set-up man. Let’s get right into the report:

• Francisco Rodriguez melted down in consecutive games against the A’s this weekend. On Saturday, with a one-run lead and two outs and nobody on in the 9th inning, he issued a walk, a game-tying double, and a walk-off single. On Sunday, also with a one-run lead, K-Rod walked the leadoff man, allowed a game-tying double, then, after a lineout, Ryon Healy hit a walk-off home run. The Tigers closer is now just 7 for 11 in save opportunities, and he’s allowed 19 hits, 11 earned runs, and four home runs in 11 2/3 innings this year. He has a 8.49 ERA/6.55 FIP/4.79 xFIP, and he’s only gotten ground balls on 29.3% of balls in play against him compared to his career mark of 43.3%. Rodriguez’s job should be in jeopardy after the back-to-back blown saves and the overall poor performance this year. Set-up man Justin Wilson has been excellent this season, pitching mostly in the 8th. He has seven holds on the year, and a brilliant 1.32 ERA/1.65 FIP/2.03 xFIP to go along with a 45.7% K%. The situation is “red” in Detroit, with manager Brad Ausmus saying after Sunday’s game that the team is going to discuss its closer situation during tomorrow’s off day, which is usually a strong indication that a change is forthcoming.

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It was a busy weekend for bullpen news around the major leagues. As such, this report is broken into two sections, one for each day.

Saturday:

• Cam Bedrosian (groin) was placed on the 10-day DL on Saturday. In his stead, Bud Norris allowed just a single in an otherwise clean 9th inning to record the first save of his career. Norris has been pretty good this year for the Angels, and he looks to be first in line for saves in Bedrosian’s absence.

• Since Hector Neris and Joaquin Benoit had each pitched in back-to-back games, Edubray Ramos was tasked with finishing off the Braves on Saturday. The Phillies reliever couldn’t get it done: he served up a game-tying solo home run to Brandon Phillips with two outs in the 9th. Neris had notched two consecutive saves, but still hadn’t been named the team’s closer. Phillies manager Pete Mackanin said on Friday that he feels comfortable with both Neris and Benoit in that role. Neris is younger and more intriguing than Benoit, but the Phillies may want to go with Benoit in that role so they can trade him for a greater return at the deadline, and because preventing Neris from accruing saves would likely save them money in arbitration.

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With about a week of 2017 baseball data in the books, there are already thousands of innings, plate appearances, and batted balls to parse through. We’ve seen a perfect game bid, a cycle, multi-home run performances, and a huge lead blown in the ninth. Unfortunately, something else we’ve seen are injuries to key players. Like the crack of the bat and pop of the glove, injuries are a part of the spot. They’re bad for the player, the team, the fans — and fantasy owners.

When a key player on your fantasy roster gets injured, it often leaves you scrambling to fill the unexpected hole. The following exercise is designed to help you survive such situations. We’re going to look at viable players who are readily available in most fantasy leagues. To qualify for this list, a player must be owned in less than 50% of all Ottoneu fantasy leagues, based on the Ottoneu Average Salaries page. He also must be able to help your team right now (i.e., no prospects).

Getting right to the list, here are of five players worth a shot in an emergency who are owned in less than 50% of Ottoneu leagues, along with their positional eligibility, average salary, and owned percentage: Read the rest of this entry »

If you were inclined last spring to target an elite closer in your fantasy drafts, the 2016 season served as a cautionary tale as to why that might not be an advisable strategy the next time around. Several popular targets, most notably Wade Davis and Craig Kimbrel, didn’t quite deliver on their promise, while largely undrafted relievers like Seung Hwan Oh, Alex Colome, Sam Dyson and Edwin Diaz became reliable saves sources.

Brandon Maurer could be added to that list as well, though he won’t likely have the same appeal as the aforementioned closers. That’s because Maurer finished with a 4.52 ERA and 1.26 WHIP that would not only scare off ratio-conscious owners, but also signal his vulnerability to losing the closer’s role. After all, the Padres can also call upon lefties Ryan Buchter and Brad Hand, who had impressive 2016 seasons, or Carter Capps, once he completes his recovery from Tommy John surgery.

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The Atlanta Braves can say they have one dominant bullpen arm in Craig Kimbrel. Beyond that, and this year’s squad is a bit more iffy. Last season the Braves pen was middle of the road with a combined 3.8 WAR, but when accounting for their second lowest in baseball mark of just 440.2 innings pitched, the ratio shows how well the staff pitched. Looking to this season, the fantasy options are more limited with the departures of David Carpenter, Jordan Walden and Anthony Varvaro, last year’s top three holds leaders in Atlanta. After Kimbrel the value drops off considerably, but there are other mildly interesting options to be had.

Closer
Craig Kimbrel

Setup
Jason Grilli
Jim Johnson

In the Mix
Josh Outman
James Russell
Luis Avilan
Jose Veras

Also Rans
Juan Jaime
Arodys Vizcaino

Closer
It’s hard to overstate just how good Craig Kimbrel has been for his career. His ups-and-downs have consisted of a seasonal worst 2.48 FIP in his rookie season where he threw all of 20.2 innings. Sure, Kimbrel was a bit fortunate with a .235 BABIP and 0.29 HR/9 rate last year, just know that his 1.61 ERA and 1.94 SIERA were no flukes compared to his other seasons. If Kimbrel is your first pitcher — not just reliever — drafted and it happens in the fourth round, you can do just fine. Read the rest of this entry »

Contributing to RotoGraphs’ Bullpen Reports last year brought me much joy: opening infinite Brooks Baseball player cards for sabermetric outcomes and watching glorious GIFs. Oh, Marcus Stroman’s Two-Seamer:

GIF: Marcus Stroman’s Two-Seam Fastball from last week’s outing. It may be our favorite of the year – http://t.co/vyJM8ltUir

— Pitcher List (@ThePitcherList) August 31, 2014

Mmm.

My last Bullpen Report from October looked at possible closers through outcomes and presented BABIP differentials (actual BABIP versus expected BABIP using Inside Edge data).

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The San Diego Padres have probably created more buzz than any other Major League Baseball team this offseason. New GM A.J. Preller added to his club a few position players who are pretty good in fantasy baseball terms – a couple of them really good, a couple of them who could be (but could also not be). The change in home venue for each doesn’t really affect his projection on offense negatively, either. The new guys all used to play in pretty pitcher-friendly yards.

A cool fantasy baseball thing related to the new guys’ pitcher-friendly yard, Petco Park, is that it has long helped its team to be a sort of fantasy goldmine. When fantasy baseball players search for pitching sleepers and fliers, they usually check San Diego’s roster for youngsters, retreads, and anyone else the Friars might give a shot that year. Petco Park has always had good park factors for hurlers, and the club’s coaching staffs (latest edition led by manager Bud Black and pitching coach Darren Balsley) have good reputations, too.

Now, :-(. The source of the Padres’ newfound buzz will make the cool fantasy baseball thing less cool. Perhaps a lot less.

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