The Atlanta Braves Bullpen: Kimbrel and Company

The Atlanta Braves can say they have one dominant bullpen arm in Craig Kimbrel. Beyond that, and this year’s squad is a bit more iffy. Last season the Braves pen was middle of the road with a combined 3.8 WAR, but when accounting for their second lowest in baseball mark of just 440.2 innings pitched, the ratio shows how well the staff pitched. Looking to this season, the fantasy options are more limited with the departures of David Carpenter, Jordan Walden and Anthony Varvaro, last year’s top three holds leaders in Atlanta. After Kimbrel the value drops off considerably, but there are other mildly interesting options to be had.

Closer
Craig Kimbrel

Setup
Jason Grilli
Jim Johnson

In the Mix
Josh Outman
James Russell
Luis Avilan
Jose Veras

Also Rans
Juan Jaime
Arodys Vizcaino

Closer
It’s hard to overstate just how good Craig Kimbrel has been for his career. His ups-and-downs have consisted of a seasonal worst 2.48 FIP in his rookie season where he threw all of 20.2 innings. Sure, Kimbrel was a bit fortunate with a .235 BABIP and 0.29 HR/9 rate last year, just know that his 1.61 ERA and 1.94 SIERA were no flukes compared to his other seasons. If Kimbrel is your first pitcher — not just reliever — drafted and it happens in the fourth round, you can do just fine.

Setup
The setup role is where questions really begin, as both Jason Grilli and Jim Johnson are probably anxious to put their 2014 seasons behind them. Grilli’s 4.00 ERA was considerably worse than his 3.28 SIERA, but after giving up four home runs in 20.1 innings with the Pirates last year, he didn’t surrender any with the Angels in 33.2 innings. As an extreme fly ball pitcher — Grilli’s 31.9% GB% is the ninth lowest among relievers since 2012 — he’ll give up the occasional home run, however he made up for it in recent seasons with a stellar strikeout rate. After posting back-to-back seasons with a 13+ K/9, last year Grilli saw his number dip to 9.50 K/9. His swinging strike rate in 2012-13 was above 14% both years and like his strikeouts, this past season saw a drop to 10.8%. Grilli did rely on his fast ball less often and his slider more, something that intuitively would lead one to imagine a higher SwStr% and K/9, though trouble with control hampered his numbers. Grilli’s walk rate rose while his first strike rate dipped last season, leading to a 3.50 BB/9, his worst tally since 2011. He should still generate a useful amount of swings and misses, but beware his occasional home run. Holds leagues should absolutely grab Grilli in the later rounds/dollar days.

Jim Johnson posted a 7.09 K/9 and an identical 7.09 ERA. One of those numbers is a bit below average for a reliever, the other is really, really bad. Fortunately for Braves fans, Johnson’s 4.33 SIERA — while still nowhere near elite — is at least not awful. A 5.09 BB/9 will torpedo just about anyone’s peripherals and Johnson was no exception. Add in a career worst .366 BABIP and it is easy to see how his season blew up. His ground balls will lend a higher than average BABIP due to his ground ball tendencies, career 57.8% GB%, but he should see a bounce-back. Johnson seems to be third in line to get saves as he’s never been a strikeout master and his walk rates were never elite either. For deep holds leagues an argument can be made to take Johnson, however beyond those types of formats it seems unlikely for him to be drafted.

In the Mix
Josh Outman appears to be the go-to guy if an Atlanta starter gets in trouble early as Outman has considerable experience in both a starting or relief role. He’ll get the occasional vulture win, as most relievers will, just don’t count on another sub-3.00 ERA. His 3.97 SIERA last year was mostly in line with his 4.17 career mark and while Outman does own a strong 10.5% SwStr% for his career, his 3.77 BB/9 hurts his value.

While James Russell did manage to get a save last year as a member of the Chicago Cubs, he really isn’t a proto-typical closer. He doesn’t offer much in terms of swing-and-miss stuff or strikeouts, though he has consistently posted a lower ERA than SIERA since 2012, spanning 179.2 innings. Russell is most likely to be the first lefty out of the pen when the team needs a LOOGY type, so he may get the occasional hold as a result.

Luis Avilan is the other main LOOGY option, and after Outman and Russell he represents the third left-handed relief option for the Braves. Not really a source of strikeouts and still giving up too many walks, partially due to his poor 50.1% first strike rate, Avilan is probably another one to leave to waiver wire.

The 34-year-old Jose Veras was given a minor league contract with an invite to spring training, though it seems likely he’ll make the team. He’ll still generate strikeouts given his 9.78 K/9 last year, though he did it with an average 8.5% SwStr%. Of his strikeouts, 32% were called punchouts, well above the 24.7% league average mark, though that number does include all pitchers.

Also Rans
Juan Jaime got a taste of the majors last year, getting callups throughout the season before spending all of September with the big league club. In his limited time, just 12.1 innings, Jaime flashed his strikeouts and walks, something that does not surprise given his minor league numbers. If any of the bounce-back candidates fall on their face, Jaime may be the first player to get called up.

The tale of Arodys Vizcaino is an interesting one. Drafted by the Yankees and traded to the Braves, then to the Cubs and now back to Atlanta, his stock has dropped as the years go by. Kiley McDaniel sees Vizcaino as a power reliever, but given his injury history, Vizcaino needs to show steady success in the upper minors before getting the call or being touchable in fantasy leagues.

After Kimbrel the questions marks get raised awfully quickly for Atlanta, though grabbing Grilli makes sense in holds leagues and Jaime is an interesting minor leaguer. Steering clear of most of the other arms is probably for the best. Of the relievers listed here, only Kimbrel appears on the Fantasy Pros ADP list of 78 relief pitchers. There are better options than the majority of arms Atlanta has to offer.