Bullpen Report: May 7, 2017
It was another fun weekend for bullpen activity across the major leagues. There was some all-too-familiar drama for a few teams, an injury to a key closer, and a couple of spectacular performances by an underrated set-up man. Let’s get right into the report:
- Francisco Rodriguez melted down in consecutive games against the A’s this weekend. On Saturday, with a one-run lead and two outs and nobody on in the 9th inning, he issued a walk, a game-tying double, and a walk-off single. On Sunday, also with a one-run lead, K-Rod walked the leadoff man, allowed a game-tying double, then, after a lineout, Ryon Healy hit a walk-off home run. The Tigers closer is now just 7 for 11 in save opportunities, and he’s allowed 19 hits, 11 earned runs, and four home runs in 11 2/3 innings this year. He has a 8.49 ERA/6.55 FIP/4.79 xFIP, and he’s only gotten ground balls on 29.3% of balls in play against him compared to his career mark of 43.3%. Rodriguez’s job should be in jeopardy after the back-to-back blown saves and the overall poor performance this year. Set-up man Justin Wilson has been excellent this season, pitching mostly in the 8th. He has seven holds on the year, and a brilliant 1.32 ERA/1.65 FIP/2.03 xFIP to go along with a 45.7% K%. The situation is “red” in Detroit, with manager Brad Ausmus saying after Sunday’s game that the team is going to discuss its closer situation during tomorrow’s off day, which is usually a strong indication that a change is forthcoming.
- The Nationals’ Matt Grace and Matt Albers combined to allow three runs in the 8th inning to the Phillies that tied the game. Enny Romero cleaned up a two on and no out situation in the 9th, and escaped the inning unscathed. Blake Treinen loaded the bases with no outs in the 10th and allowed the winning run to score on a sacrifice fly after a strikeout. As Al Melchior noted on Friday, the bullpen is in total disarray for the Nationals, with Shawn Kelley and Koda Glover on the disabled list and Treinen not pitching well. Romero and Albers appear to be first in line for saves at the moment, but neither is necessarily worth owning in fantasy leagues, since neither has great peripherals and Glover is expected to be back within a week, and he should get save opportunities upon his return. Even then, the Nationals bullpen will likely remain a work in progress until they trade for an established closer.
- Corey Knebel picked up his 10th hold of the season in a scoreless 8th inning on Sunday, racking up three strikeouts in the process. It was the second game in a row Knebel has struck out three batters in an inning of work. He now has 25 strikeouts in 16 1/3 innings, along with just seven walks and no home runs allowed. He has a very strong 1.10 ERA/1.44 FIP/2.25 xFIP, and looks like a closer in the making. Despite blowing only one save in nine chances, Neftali Feliz has been shaky in the closer’s role this year (4.91 ERA/6.24 FIP/5.06 xFIP). The rebuilding Brewers will likely move at least someone from their bullpen by the trading deadline, but there’s no telling exactly who that will be. If Feliz is moved, Knebel could certainly see save opportunities in Milwaukee, and thrive in that role. He’s definitely worth owning in holds leagues, and he’s worth considering for those speculating for saves.
- With Zach Britton headed back to the disabled list with a left forearm strain, Brad Brach is once again slated for saves in Baltimore. Brach entered in the 9th with a 4-0 lead and two on and one out, and he induced a double-play grounder to wrap up the game. Brach is now 6 for 7 in save opportunities this year, and he has a sparkling 2.04 ERA (although he has just a 3.91 xFIP). His career strikeout rate (26.2%) is good, and he’s right there again this year at 27.0%. He should be a fine replacement for Britton, and he’s certainly worth owning with Britton’s health being an ongoing concern at this time.
- Sam Dyson entered a tie game in the 8th inning and allowed a go-ahead solo home run to Kyle Seager. It was the fourth home run Dyson has allowed in 10 2/3 innings this year, and it ballooned his overall numbers on the season to a 12.66 ERA/9.79 FIP/6.77 xFIP. Today was Dyson’s 29th birthday, but even that didn’t help him turn his disastrous season around. He likely won’t see many more high leverage situations until he figures things out.
- Kelvin Herrera allowed two home runs in what had was a tie game in the 9th inning on Saturday. After notching a career-high 30.4% K% in 2016, Herrera has just a 19.5% K% in 2017. Herrera is still throwing hard, so it’s not entirely clear why he hasn’t been able to strike batters out this year like he did last season. In the meantime, his job remains safe, but he’s someone to continue to watch as the season unfolds.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
Ben Kaspick is the host Locked On Giants, a daily San Francisco Giants podcast on the Locked On Podcast Network. Follow him on Twitter/X @BenKaspick.
Is there an update on the White Sox pecking order? Nate Jones is injured.
Just updated the chart. Kahnle, who’s been spectacular this year, moves up a notch, and I added Swarzak, at least for now, because he’s also been really good. Kahnle is the guy to target: he’s been superb.
The insanity that was the Dodgers’ game on Saturday has to be mentioned. Dodgers have a 5-1 lead and in the 8th Kershaw puts a couple guys on with walks and Pedro Baez puts another guy on with a walk. Bases juiced and now it’s a save situation, so Dave Roberts goes to Jansen for the 4 out save. Jansen proceeds to whiff Hunter Renfroe on 6 pitches. Pretty routine so far.
In the top of the 9th, the Dodgers score 5 runs thanks in part to Cody Bellinger tomahawking one over his head out for a grand slam. It’s now a 9 run game and Jansen’s spot coming up. If you’re Dave Roberts, do you:
– pinch-hit for Jansen because, well, it’s a 9 run game and there is not a good reason to send your best reliever out to protect a 9 run lead, or
– let Jansen hit for himself and send him back out to pick up his “save”?
Right, you let Jansen hit and send him back out. Jansen gives up a couple singles wrapped around 2 K’s and then induces a ground ball that should have ended it except. . . . .Justin Turner throws it away to keep the inning alive and make it a 10-2 game. It also means that Jansen has now thrown an extra 27 pitches bringing his total to 33 (remember, this was a 9 run game to start the inning). Roberts finally realizes this is insane and goes and gets Jansen. Chris Hatcher gets the last out on the very next pitch.
It was maybe the most blatant example of a manager being a slave to the save I have ever seen. It was absurd.
Oh BTW? Over Jansen’s last 17 batters faced he has 13 K’s, 3 singles and 1 fielding error. That’s right, he has zero outs in the field. Jansen could have pitched his last 4.1 IP with a team of Fangraphs readers and done just as well.
Over his last 31 batters he has 20 K’s, 5 singles, that 1 fielding error, and 5 outs in the field.
The only logic I can see is that Jansen hadn’t pitched in a couple days, and only once all week, so maybe this was viewed as ‘getting some work in’
I’m sure that would be Dave Roberts’ rationale since he had only pitched once since 4/30. However, in a larger sense he had pitched twice in the prior 5 days at the time Roberts made the decision since he had just faced a hitter not 10-15 minutes before then. Yes it was only 6 pitches but it was still getting work in.
Plus, at the time Roberts made the decision the Dodgers’ schedule was for a game every day for the next 15 days. Their next scheduled off day is 5/22. Now, it worked out since the game yesterday was rained out, but there really isn’t a good reason to send Jansen out there in a 9 run game knowing you might need him a bunch over the next 2 weeks without any off days for rest.
K-rod officially a red situation.
https://twitter.com/evanwoodbery/status/861374470107181056
Flashing red, indeed.
Netfali has to be yellow, right? The guy has been well, Netfali the past couple of weeks. Not “K”-Rod bad, but he’s still not great. Who’s the guy to own next? Knebel(walk issues), or Barnes?
The guy to own is Knebel as noted by the author of this post. By the way, Barnes’ walk rate is near 5 per 9, while Knebel’s is under 4 per 9. Barnes has been terrible lately and Knebel has been great.
Except I failed to add in my post is that Counsell used Barnes and NOT Knebel in a save situation. So far, Knebel has just been an outstanding 8th inning guy.
Joe Biagini made a start today/yesterday (5/7) and will make at least one more (per: https://twitter.com/bnicholsonsmith/status/861316147135868928), so I doubt he’ll set up any time soon for Osuna. Smith set up for Osuna today/yesterday, and I’d be willing to be Grilli is the 7th inning guy right now, even though he’s been awful so far this season.
While I’m not huge on being obsessed with chart colors, I also have to agree with chri521 and TroutMask that Detroit seems bright red to me. A discussion about closer usually means changing the closer, and Rodriguez has been bad. A likely change at closer with it being unknown who will close the next game (likely Justin Wilson, of course, assuming they remove K-Rod) seems like the brightest red situation possible to me.
Scribner has been on the DL since April 29th, and now he’s off to visit Dr. ElAttrache, so he’s not second-in-line in Seattle.
Thanks, I updated the chart.
Not that Kimbrel would lose his job other than due to injury, but isn’t Hembree (1.15 ERA/3.46 xFIP, 0 HR) clearly ahead of Barnes (3 HR, 4+ ERA/xFIP, 5 BB/9)?