Archive for fantasy prospects

On Wednesday I reviewed the results of the first three rounds of a new dynasty league prospect draft.  I’ll continue that review today with rounds 4 – 6, where some deeper, more interesting prospects appear.

Dynasty Prospect Draft Review: Rounds 1 – 3

This draft should help you “discover” a few names to keep an eye on going forward.  If you have specific questions about players or the thought process of why they were selected, fire away in the comments section, as I’ve asked each owner in the league to be on standby to provide feedback as we review the rounds.

Before I review my own thoughts on the draft, you should know this Ottoneu league uses the “FanGraphs Points” scoring system based on linear weights, so offense is heavily slanted towards wOBA skills (and speed is almost a non-factor).  We also somewhat arbitrarily removed the Top 12 overall offensive prospects to save them for the standard 40-man auction next spring.  Otherwise, any minor league player without one (1) MLB PA or IP is eligible to be drafted.  You can read more about the custom rules of this dynasty league here, and follow along with the draft here.

Many of the prospects below are also featured on the 2018 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects list.

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Recently I created a new dynasty baseball league customized around the basic game of Ottoneu.  The more you play Ottoneu the more you come to appreciate how deep the player pool really is, and the longer I play fantasy baseball the more interested I become in the minor league development process.  While there is still plenty of luck involved, the satisfaction of “discovering” the next Rhys Hoskins before everyone else is a feeling that keeps me coming back to the game over and over.

In addition to the standard economics of Ottoneu where each league consists of twelve owners and 480 rostered players (minors and majors), our league will roster an additional 180 minor leaguers (15 extra per team) in an attempt to “develop” successful franchises for years to come.  Since the regular MLB season is wrapping up soon and many fantasy owners are starting to look towards 2018, I thought it might be helpful to review our prospect draft over the next several posts to give you some insight into the valuation of these minor league lottery tickets.  If nothing else, this draft should help you “discover” a few names to keep an eye on going forward.  If you have specific questions about players or the thought process of why they were selected, fire away in the comments section, as I’ve asked each owner in the league to be on standby to provide feedback as we review the rounds.  

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The San Francisco Giants of recent history have mystified the baseball world. Three unexpected World Series championships in five seasons will have that effect on people. In the mid-2000s, Giants fans endured teams that were Barry Bonds or bust. When Pablo Sandoval was named an All-Star in 2011, he became the first homegrown Giants position player to be so honored since Matt Williams in 1996.

All that has changed. Call it what you wish: Devil Magic, Pixie Dust, or Just Plain Luck. Any way you slice it, the modern Giants have churned out above-average position players at an above-average rate. Sandoval, Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, and Matt Duffy have all made their mark on the big leagues since 2009, and most have been unexpected contributors to unexpected title runs. Read the rest of this entry »

Jon Gray.  Alex Bregman.  Michael Fulmer.  Edwin Diaz.  Yoan Moncada.  Willson Contreras.  Josh Bell.  Blake Snell.

The young players listed above are hot commodities right now in keeper leagues like Ottoneu. These players are the building blocks of hope for many eager fantasy owners looking to turn the corner from rebuilding to contention over the next season or two.  Each of these players were also well outside the top 50 prospects listed in Chris Mitchell’s KATOH Top 100 prospect ranking posted almost oneyear ago.

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Earlier this season I introduced the Prospect Scorecard as a way of better comparing and identifying the best fit prospect value for your specific fantasy league.  Today I’ll get a head start on my own 2017 prospect rankings by using the Scorecard methodology to rank the current top 50 prospects for Ottoneu. Even if you don’t play Ottoneu specifically, the 4 x 4 and FGPTS prospect rankings can serve as a good proxy for most OPS or wOBA-centric fantasy leagues, and the traditional 5 x 5 prospect rankings should cover a large portion of the rest.

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I’ll pick up on the prospect theme that Justin and Tom touched on in this week’s podcast: helium watch.  In other words, here are a four somewhat under the radar prospects that have caught my eye this year that could have increasing value over the second half of the season and turn into real assets in the near future in Ottoneu (and other deep leagues).

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I’ve recently completed two deep Ottoneu minor league drafts and am reminded just how difficult successful “prospecting” can be.  Regardless of how informed you may feel heading into an MiLB draft, you’re often left selecting players based upon small sample sizes, second hand reports, maybe a few brief videos and, as much as we want to deny it, a bias towards “scouting the stat lines”.  At the end of the day you’re making a decision using limited information that could have serious long term consequences for your dynasty team.

Prospecting is actually a lot like another critical business skill: hiring good employees.  The inputs might be a little different (scouting reports might be job references, batting practice videos might be one hour interviews, and stats, however limited, might be the resume sitting on your desk), but the challenge is the same: make an important, timely decision based on limited information, first impressions, and gut feel.

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Red Sox outfield prospect Bryce Brentz made headlines recently when he accidentally shot himself in the leg while cleaning a gun. The injury wasn’t severe and he’s already returning to practice, but who knew cleaning a handgun could be as dangerous as standing in front of Robin Yount? Thankfully for dynasty owners “firearm handling” is not a category in most fantasy leagues. So what can Brentz do for your fantasy team?

The Breakdown

I was able to see Brentz a few times during the 2012 season. Defensively he is a prototypical corner outfielder and his strong arm makes right field a nice, cozy fit. The athleticism doesn’t stand out but he’s not a bad runner. The speed plays better in the outfield than it does on the base paths and his stolen base totals will likely be in the low single digits each season. As he ages his thick build does have the potential to become more of an issue and slow him down to some degree. I still expect Brentz is going to qualify in the outfield until he’s well into his 30’s.

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Every Thursday throughout the regular season, we’re going to take a look at the some of the players in the minor leagues who are on the cusp of helping out Major League Baseball teams (and by association – Fantasy Baseball managers) in 2009. This week it is the all-hitter edition.

Matt LaPorta: We wrote about LaPorta last week, but the big man keeps knockin’ on the door to the big leagues. He’s at .368/.436/.706 in 68 at-bats for Triple-A and has hit .405 in his last 10 games. In a positive sign for a slugger, LaPorta’s strikeout rate is on the decline for the third straight season, despite facing better competition. Both Ryan Garko and Travis Hafner have been hitting well, which has helped keep LaPorta in the minors, but the latter player just hit the disabled list. Keep your eyes on the transaction wire.

Matt Wieters: The top hitting prospect in the minors missed a handful of Triple-A games after suffering a minor injury on April 17. He’s back now, but he’s hitting just .238 (5-for-21) since his return. On the season, the catcher has a triple-slash line of .267/.382/.378 in 45 at-bats. With Baltimore’s No. 1 catcher, veteran Gregg Zaun, hitting .111/.238/.185 in 54 at-bats, there isn’t much between Wieters and the beginning of his MLB career.

Adrian Cardenas: Oakland needs some serious offensive help, or the club is going to fade off into the AL West sunset. The team is last in the American League in batting average (.233), runs scored (75), doubles (24) and home runs (with a paltry eight, or one less than MLB leader Adrian Gonzalez of the Padres). Offensively, Cardenas would be a step up at second base, third base, or shortstop, where the trio of Mark Ellis, Eric Chavez and Orlando Cabrera have combined for a .201 average and zero homers. Cardenas, 21, is currently hitting .355/.410/.579 with 14 extra base hits, as well as a healthy dose of walks.

Wilkin Ramirez: Ramirez, 23, could offer Detroit an offensive boost, but where should the club play him? The outfield is full right now – although everyone but Josh Anderson is scuffling. Carlos Guillen is clogging up the designated hitter’s spot, but he too is struggling. As a result, Ramirez will have to bide his time in Triple-A and wait for an injury. The converted third baseman is currently hitting .313/.371/.438 with just one homer and six stolen bases. He missed the 20-20 club by one home runs in Double-A last season, and also hit more than .300.

Bryan Petersen: If the Florida Marlins organization decides center-fielder Cameron Maybin needs a little more seasoning in the minors (.190 avg, 38.1 K%), it might look like the club would have to rely on the likes of Brett Carroll, Jai Miller, or Alejandro De Aza. But take a look down into Double-A where a young prospect by the name of Bryan Petersen is currently playing. He’s more of a corner outfielder, but he has the speed to play center – at least in the short term. Things really started to click for Petersen, 23, in the second half of last season and that success has carried over into the 2009 season. The left-handed hitter is currently batting .288/.355/.424 with five stolen bases in 66 at-bats. The biggest negatives in his game right now are the strikeouts (22.7 K%) and the average against southpaws (.188). Petersen, though, has 20-20 potential.

Josh Whitesell: Poor Mr. Whitesell. He just cannot catch a break. The left-handed first baseman just turned 27 and he has a total of seven big league at-bats. Whitesell hit .328/.425/.568 in Triple-A last year and is tearing the cover off the ball again at the same level in ’09 with a line of .364/.475/.545 in 66 at-bats. He hits for average, power, drives in runs and walks more than his fair share. What does a guy have to do to get a break? Ah, but the D-backs have 36-year-old Tony Clark filling the pinch hitter/back-up first baseman role. After hitting .206/.338/.333 for Arizona last year, Clark is now following up that very successful campaign with a line of .160/.250/.400 and 13 strikeouts in 25 at-bats.

Every Thursday throughout the regular season, we’re going to take a look at the some of the players hackin’ and chuckin’ away in Minor League Baseball who have a good chance of making an impact at the MLB level in 2009. With that said, let’s get this party started.

Matt LaPorta: The Cleveland Indians might be tempted to shake things up with the club stuck in last place in the AL Central. He could fill a role at either left field, first base or designated hitter. The club is actually hitting fairly well right now and Travis Hafner is having an early-season resurgence, so he’s not going anywhere. The player most likely to lose a roster spot to LaPorta would appear to be left fielder Ben Francisco (.220/.304/.366). The former Brewers prospect is currently hitting .362/.423/.660 in 47 Triple-A at-bats.

Eric Young Jr.: Infielders Jeff Baker (.111 AVG) and Omar Quintanilla (.143) are both struggling for the Rockies and Young Jr. is continuing the hot hitting that he displayed last season. At Triple-A, the son of former Rockies’ second baseman Eric Young Sr., is hitting .298/.313/.340 with nine stolen bases in 10 attempts. His lack of walks (He has zero) hurts his overall value, but he could be a source of cheap steals (87 SB is his MiLB career high) and he would provide more defensive flexibility than Baker.

Andrew McCutchen: Nyjer Morgan is going to have to keep playing like his pants are on fire to keep this former first round draft pick in the minors. The Pirates, though, could get cute and play the center fielder out of position to make room for him. Neither Brandon Moss nor Craig Monroe are hitting that well. Delwyn Young was also brought in recently from Los Angeles, but his defense will not wow anyone. McCutchen, on the other hand, is a gifted outfielder who is currently hitting .315/.373/.630 with five triples and three steals in 54 at-bats.

Bobby Wilson: The Angels have two pretty good young catchers on the MLB roster already, but the organization also has one of the best No. 3 catchers around… and Wilson is stuck playing in Triple-A until an injury occurs. If an opportunity presents itself, though, Wilson could be a valuable addition for fantasy league managers. Along with being a solid defensive catcher (which doesn’t help in most fantasy scenarios), he’s never hit below .268 in the minors leagues and he’s currently batting .346 in 26 at-bats after managing a .312 average at the same level last season. Wilson also has three home runs.

Daniel Bard: With an already-dominating bullpen, Boston could get even more scary with the addition of Bard. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, he’s not likely to get involved in many impact scenarios (ie. saves) due to the depth in front of him in the big league pen. He could, though, earned some vulture saves while piling up Ks. So far in Triple-A, Bard has allowed just one hit and three walks in nine innings. He’s struck out more than half (16) of the 27 batters he’s retired.

David Huff: With veterans Fausto Carmona and Carl Pavano struggling, Cleveland may need to dip down into the minors yet again for some pitching help. With Aaron Laffey having already been promoted, Huff could be the next Triple-A starter to get the call. He has a 3.94 ERA through three starts and has allowed 14 hits and seven walks in 16 innings. The left-hander has also struck out 12 batters. Another player to keep an eye on is Hector Rondon, who is one of the fastest rising prospects in the game. He’s currently at Double-A with a 1.10 ERA through three starts.

Jess Todd: Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa is not know for his patience with young pitching. If Jason Motte continues to struggle into the beginning of May, Todd may get his opportunity to shine in the St. Louis bullpen. The former second round draft pick out of the University of Arkansas has had little trouble with pro hitters and he currently has 12 strikeouts in 9.1 Triple-A innings. He’s also allowed just five hits. Right-handed hitters are batting just .120 against him.

David Price: It’s not 2008 anymore and the Rays are currently stuck in last place in the AL East. The organization may live to regret not going with its best 25-man roster, which would have included Price, right from the get-go. The left-hander has been solid – but not dominating – at Triple-A with a 2.63 ERA in three starts. He’s allowed 10 hits and four walks, with 15 Ks, in 13.2 innings of work. MLB starters Jeff Niemann and Andy Sonnanstine are a combined 1-4 with ERAs above 5.40.