Archive for fantasy pitchers

With only a two month season, it makes sense to look into pitchers who were gaining momentum in the final month. Of course, taking a small sample isn’t always ideal but perhaps a pitcher started to gain velocity, made a pitch mix change, or were just plain unlucky in the first month. These tangible changes could mean something and could hint at who will carry their success over into 2021.

Here are the top 30 ERA leaders in the last month:

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This season, this short, crazy, and insane season has seen a lot of rookie pitchers. With all of these call ups this has been one of the more compelling MLB seasons we have seen in a long time. It seems like every week new pitchers are being called up to grab a spot start. Pitchers who haven’t even reached the AAA level are getting called up! This is the second and final part of analyzing some of these rookie pitchers, how they are performing, and what their future holds.

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Movement

Pitch movement is simply measured by vertical and horizontal movement. Some websites do differ in the number of inches as some include gravity while others don’t. Movement on a pitch can mean everything. Think about it – of course the more a pitch moves the harder it is to hit. But on the other end, that also means it is harder for the pitcher to command. Below are two pitchers who have seen an increase in movement on one of their pitches. So what does this mean for these pitchers moving forward? Check it out below!

Trevor Bauer

Trevor Bauer has been like a sour patch candy the past two years. In 2018 he was sweet and put up a 2.21 ERA with the underlying metrics to support it. In 2019 he turned sour and put up a 4.48 ERA and again had the underlying metrics to support it. Coming into 2020 it was impossible to make rhyme or reason on what the heck happened to Bauer. Personally I thought his four-seam seemed to over-perform in 2018, thinking his 2020 wouldn’t be far off from his 2019. Boy was I wrong.

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Hey everyone! Before we get started on pitch mix changes I figured I would introduce myself since this is my first article on Fangraphs. When I learned I would be writing for Fangraphs it felt like I had just won the lotto. As people would say these days, my mind was blown. For those who don’t know me, you can mainly see my work on my own blog and I am extremely active on twitter. I have an obsession with pitching, am a Mets fan (unfortunately), and my favorite pitcher in today’s game is, of course, Jacob deGrom. The baseball community is the best in the world and I couldn’t be more excited for this new adventure!

In this shortened season we sadly won’t be able to rely on a ton of metrics when analyzing pitchers. The sample size just won’t be big enough, but one factor that could be telling is pitch mix. We have seen numerous pitchers suddenly lean on different pitches, creating a significant difference in their performance (looking at you Patrick Corbin). Below are four pitchers who appear to be changing things up for the 2020 season. The question is, what does this mean for their future?

Danny Duffy

Danny Duffy came into 2020 with the mindset of keeping a pitch mix change he made towards the end of last season. In July and September (hurt in August) of 2019, Duffy started to get comfortable with his changeup. Most notably in September, he threw his changeup over 20% of the time, the first time he did that all season. In that month he threw for 30.1 innings while producing an impressive 2.37 ERA and 3.61 FIP.

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Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com, which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate). I’ve listed the players in order of interest.

Note: * denotes that ESPN ownership rates were used, as rates on FantasyPros were unavailable.

Must-Start

John Means (11-11, 3.54) at BOS |42%

Means has been a master at inducing soft contact this season, both on flies and liners (90.7 mph EV) and grounders (82.5 mph EV). Now he gets to face a Red Sox offense that ranks in the bottom third in ISO and wOBA for September. They may also still be adjusting from playing in high-80s temperatures in Texas to cool, damp weather in Boston. Means is a must-add and must-start.
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Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com, which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

Note: * denotes that combined ESPN/Yahoo! ownership rates were unavailable on FantasyPros.com, so ESPN’s rate was used.

Pick Him Up!

Zac Gallen (3-6, 2.81) at SD | 51%

Gallen and his 28.7 percent strikeout rate take on the Padres at PETCO Park? It’s a matchup made in Strikeout Heaven. He’s a must-start and a must-add wherever available.
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When Julio Teheran takes the mound against the Mets at SunTrust Park on Thursday night, he will be looking to extend a hot streak that extends back to the beginning of July. Over his last seven starts encompassing 42.1 innings, Teheran has registered a 1.91 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. Since July 1, Teheran ranks 30th in Roto value among starting pitchers (per CBSSports.com rankings), and he would place in the top 20 if not for inconsistent run support and a Luke Jackson blown save that cost him a win against the Nationals on July 19. Despite excellent ratios, Teheran is just 2-1 over this stretch.

When a pitcher gets more strikeouts and reduces walks and home runs, an increase in fantasy value is to be expected, and Teheran has recently been accomplishing all three things. The decrease in his walk rate is the most dramatic of the improvements and also the most needed. Over the preceding season-and-a-half, Teheran’s walk rate was a lofty 11.7 percent, but over his last seven outings, that rate is a slightly-below-league-average 8.1 percent. He did not have a home run problem over the first three months of this season, as evidenced by his 1.05 HR/9, but since then, he has been even better at keeping the ball in the park with an 0.85 HR/9.
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Just when it seemed like Tuesday night’s three-team blockbuster was going to be the marquee deal of this year’s deadline trades, Mike Hazen needed someone to hold his beer in the final hours of trading. In dealing Zack Greinke to the Astros for four prospects (which, incidentally, included Seth Beer), the Diamondbacks’ executive vice president and general manager may have helped to change the complexion of this year’s postseason, but in terms of impacting the fantasy landscape, Greinke was going to be a must-start pitcher whether in Arizona, Houston or anywhere else.

However, Hazen made two other trades involving pitchers that will likely have an effect on some fantasy owners. Meanwhile, the trade involving possibly the largest impact on a pitcher’s fantasy value will get less notice for its real world consequences.
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There is no getting around the fact that Blake Snell had a miserable, short outing against the Yankees on Wednesday afternoon. He had little control and wasn’t fooling any of the hitters he faced. I do give Gary Sanchez credit for hitting an outside changeup for an opposite-field home run, and the weak grounder DJ LeMahieu hit for a leadoff single had just a 23 percent chance of becoming a hit (per Baseball Savant). Still, Snell owns the four walks he issued, which is a true feat considering he faced only five other batters besides Sanchez and LeMahieu.

For those who have Snell on their fantasy rosters, the month of June has been a difficult one. He did have a strong outing on June 9 against the Red Sox in Boston (one run allowed in six innings with seven strikeouts), but across his other three starts, the lefty gave up 16 runs (15 earned) in only eight innings.
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The Giants are not exactly one of the tougher matchups for a pitcher, and especially not for a lefty, as they rank dead last in wOBA against southpaws. Even so, I did not see Jason Vargas tossing a complete-game shutout against them on Wednesday night.

Given the lack of resistance we have come to expect from the Giants’ lineup, that start alone probably would not have made me take notice of Vargas as a fantasy option going forward. Wednesday’s outing in combination with his previous start — a seven-inning, one-run affair on the road against the Dodgers — does give me reason to pause. Looking even further back, Vargas had been effective over a five-start run that was interrupted by an IL stint for a strained hamstring. During that stretch, he posted a 2.74 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP, and though he did not last more than 5.1 innings in any of those starts, he recorded three game scores above 50 and never fell below a 45 game score.
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