Analyzing Rookie Pitchers Part II

This season, this short, crazy, and insane season has seen a lot of rookie pitchers. With all of these call ups this has been one of the more compelling MLB seasons we have seen in a long time. It seems like every week new pitchers are being called up to grab a spot start. Pitchers who haven’t even reached the AAA level are getting called up! This is the second and final part of analyzing some of these rookie pitchers, how they are performing, and what their future holds.

Sixto Sanchez 

The name Sixto Sanchez has been around for a long time. He has been a highly-touted prospect for some time now. Last year in AA he had an impressive 2.53 ERA, 2.69 FIP, and 23.6 K%. With a shortened season the Marlins took the opportunity to bring him into the rotation and skip AAA. This turns out to be probably the smartest decision they made all season. 

In six starts Sanchez has the fantasy baseball industry booming because he has produced a 2.75 ERA, 3.30 FIP, and 22.0 K%. The best thing about Sanchez is his love for the game. After throwing what he knows is a good pitch he sometimes does a little shimmy or even fist pump bringing some excitement to the game. 

What makes Sanchez so much fun to watch besides the on mound shenanigans is his electrifying pitches. His changeup has been stellar with a -23 wRC+ against, 19.5 SwStr%, and impressive horizontal movement. His changeup is so good that no matter if the hitter is right-handed or left-handed its batting average against is under .150. When he isn’t throwing his changeup he pumps in his fastballs (sinker and four-seam) at 97 and 99 MPH. While the sinker produces ground balls his four-seam he uses as a strikeout pitch. Lastly, he throws a slider but he has issues commanding it and it’s a work in progress. Overall every one of his pitches is well above league average in velocity making him very hard to hit. 

 

With a three-pitch arsenal and another one on the way, Sanchez’s small sample size seems to be legitimate. Before his recent blow up against the Nationals he had yet to allow more than three runs in any start. Being a rookie tough starts will happen and Sanchez should be in everyone’s lineups against the Braves this week. As for next year the hype might make him too expensive on draft day. One would think he is bound to struggle at times next year as well.

Casey Mize

In 2019 Casey Mize crushed the minor league competition posting a 0.88 ERA in A+ and a 3.20 ERA in AA. He was a big name coming into 2020 and someone a lot of people thought would have instant success. Well through six starts and over 23 innings pitched Mize hasn’t looked too great. He currently holds a 6.08 ERA, 5.98 FIP, and 9.9 K-BB%. 

Mize has a deep arsenal as he throws four pitchers over 15% of the time. His four-seam has arguably been his best pitch this year becoming his main swing and miss pitch at 12.3%. It has a lot of armside run with above-average horizontal movement making it tough for any competitor. His sinker and cutter have been just average as he struggles to command them at times. The cutter he mainly uses against right-handed hitters (RHH) because it breaks outside of the zone and becomes a quality strikeout pitch. Where as he uses the splitter as a strikeout pitch against left-handed hitters (LHP). Speaking of his splitter this pitch is awesome in terms of movement. With excellent vertical break and a .421 BABIP against this pitch, it is bound to take a step forward next year.  

With all of that said about his arsenal scouting reports show his fastball, splitter, and cutter to be plus pitches. He was also known for having great command with all three of those pitches. This might be jitters or a whacky season getting to Mize. With the splitter and four-seam already proven to be above-average expect the cutter and command to come around as well. All in all Casey Mize will probably be at a nice discount coming into drafts for 2021.

Keegan Akin

Keegan Akin started in the bullpen this year with the Baltimore Orioles but has since moved to the rotation. So far it has been paying off for the Orioles as the rookie has been nothing short of impressive. In four starts Akin has produced a 2.35 ERA, 1.62 FIP, 36.4 K%, and 15.5 SwStr%. What is even more impressive is who he put those numbers up against. In those four starts he has faced the Yankees twice, the Braves, and the Blue Jays. All very formidable offenses. 

The only issue with Akin besides the small sample size is that he lives in the zone a little too much. He has a low O-Swing% of 26.3% which means hitters aren’t chasing him outside of the zone. With command issues stemming from the minors he also might be hesitant to live outside the zone and risk walking too many hitters. This is definitely something we have to monitor.  

Akin’s main strength is his fastball which has above average movement in both vertical and horizontal movement. While it doesn’t have much velocity the movement of the pitch makes up for it. He also places it well trying to place it high in the zone as often as possible. That fastball is paired with a changeup that straight up fools hitters. It comes in 10 mph slower than his fastball with late vertical drop at the bottom of the zone. His changeup currently holds an impressive 20.3 SwStr%.

As for 2021 Akin will be an interesting pitcher to evaluate. A very small sample size alone puts a lot of this into question. But with what looks like a solid fastball/changeup combination he will be worth a shot towards the end of drafts.