Streaming Starters: September 21, 2019

Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com, which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

Note: * denotes that combined ESPN/Yahoo! ownership rates were unavailable on FantasyPros.com, so ESPN’s rate was used.

Pick Him Up!

Zac Gallen (3-6, 2.81) at SD | 51%

Gallen and his 28.7 percent strikeout rate take on the Padres at PETCO Park? It’s a matchup made in Strikeout Heaven. He’s a must-start and a must-add wherever available.

Has Some Appeal

Anthony DeSclafani (9-9, 3.93) vs. NYM | 34%

Though DeSclafani has been pitching to contact over his last five starts (7.1 percent SwStr%), the approach has been agreeing with him. He has lasted at least six innings in each of the outings, and four of them resulted in quality starts. He has induced grounders at a 58.3 percent rate over this 33-inning span and given up only three home runs. If the trend continues, that could help him towards another quality start, but in facing the Mets (19.0 percent K%, last 30 days), DeSclafani will have a hard time getting strikeouts.

Johnny Cueto (1-0, 0.00) at ATL | 40%

Though his first two starts back from Tommy John surgery have gone better than one could have reasonably expected, Cueto has managed to toss 10 scoreless innings in spite of low-90s velocity and a 7.1 percent SwStr%. The Braves should be a much tougher test than either the Pirates or Marlins, whom he faced in his first two outings. Some caution is warranted here, especially if you’re in a tight race and can’t afford a disastrous start.

Justus Sheffield (0-1, 5.40) at BAL | 12%

Sheffield has been seemingly erratic over his five starts and has exceeded five innings only once. In facing the Orioles at Camden Yards, Sheffield will contend with the most homer-friendly environment he has seen to date, but he can neutralize the home run threat with his four-seam fastball, which has a 63.8 percent ground ball rate this season. If he can avoid walks — something that should not be too hard to do against the Orioles — Sheffield could be in for a productive start. He has 30 strikeouts in 26.2 innings to go along with a .245 xBA and a .324 xwOBA, which tell us he has been much better than what his surface stats would suggest.

Tyler Alexander (1-3, 4.87) vs. CHW | 1%

The flyball-leaning lefty has been too amenable to allowing extra-base hits (.209 ISO), but he has been good at getting batters to chase out-of-zone pitches (33.7 percent O-Swing%). That plays into one of the White Sox’s greatest weaknesses, as only the Tigers and Marlins have posted higher O-Swing rates. Alexander is coming off an encouraging four-game stretch (one start, three long relief appearances) during which he has produced a 2.12 ERA with 15 strikeouts and one walk over 17 innings. The schedule has not been easy, as it has required him to keep the Yankees, Athletics and Astros in check. He could wind up with a quality start — and then some — against the White Sox.

Long Shots

Elieser Hernandez (3-5, 5.03) vs. WAS | 5%

If only you could combine Hernandez and DeSclafani into one pitcher, borrowing only their best traits, you would have a fantastic streamer. Hernandez has been adept and missing bats (11.6 percent SwStr%, 24.1 percent K%), but he is one of 11 pitchers to have thrown at least 80 innings this season with an HR/9 of at least 2.00. Even at Marlins Park, his HR/9 is a bloated 1.83, and he has an extremely challenging matchup in facing the Nationals there. Hernandez is only an option for fantasy owners who are chasing strikeout upside.

Zach Davies (10-7, 3.70) vs. PIT | 34%

Davies draws a favorable matchup in this start, and his most recent outing against the Padres (5 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 4 K) suggests he can fare well when the competition is not too stiff. However, he did not have a good start against the Marlins on Sept. 11, so Davies is hardly a lock to succeed here. He also has not pitched more than five innings in any start since lasting seven frames against the Diamondbacks on July 18.

Zach Plesac (8-6, 3.64) vs. PHI | 38%*

Plesac’s first quality start in more than a month was a gem, as he pitched a complete-game shutout against the Angels on Sept. 10. That 114-pitch outing earned him some additional rest, as he will be making his first start in 11 days. On the surface, Plesac may appear to have similar appeal to Davies, as a pitch-to-contact type who has managed to prevent runs. Davies has been genuinely better at preventing home runs and hard ground ball contact, though. If you must start a Zach, go with Davies, who also has the better matchup.

Jason Vargas (6-8, 4.48) at CLE | 11%

Over his past six starts, Vargas has put up some reasonable peripherals (19.7 percent K%, 7.9 percent BB%, 1.0 HR/9), but he has been sunk by a largely-undeserved .372 BABIP and 59.4 percent strand rate. With a favorable matchup, Vargas would be worth more consideration as a streamer, but not against an Indians offense that has scored 87 runs in 17 September games.

Cal Quantrill (6-8, 5.33) vs. ARI | 12%

Things have turned sour quickly for Quantrill, who began the second half by compiling a 1.79 ERA over his first 40.1 innings. Since then, he has allowed 28 runs over 16.2 innings. While he is sure to rebound from a .433 BABIP and 41.7 percent strand rate over that stretch, it’s hard to trust Quantrill when he has induced swinging strikes on only 6.7 percent of his pitches in those appearances.

Patrick Sandoval (0-3, 4.91) at HOU | 1%*

Sandoval has yet to exceed five innings in an appearance, and he has reached that threshold only twice in eight tries. His 14.2 percent SwStr% is tantalizing, but there is not much potential for strikeouts when Sandoval may only pitch three or four innings. The ceiling for strikeouts is even lower, given that he is facing the Astros.

Must-Avoid

Iván Nova (10-12, 4.83) at DET | 17%

Nova often goes deep into games, but he has not gone six innings or more in a start since his Aug. 13 complete game against the Astros. Granted, he was used as an opener in his most recent outing, but the bigger issue has been Nova’s propensity for allowing home runs (six in his last 29.1 innings) and line drives (29.3 percent rate during the same stretch). Even with a desirable matchup, Nova is just not worth the risk.

Glenn Sparkman (4-11, 6.02) at MIN | 1%

Sparkman’s greatest fantasy asset is his efficiency (3.76 P/PA), and that has allowed him to make three starts of seven inning or more. Then again, ineffectiveness has played a role in him making eight starts of fewer than five innings. You never know when Sparkman may toss a quality start, but it’s generally not a winning bet, especially against the Twins.

James Marvel (0-2, 9.00) at MIL | 0%*

After a decent debut against the Cardinals, it looked as if this righty might have some appeal, but two starts into his career, Marvel has a comically-low 9.3 percent strikeout rate. Maybe there is more strikeout potential against a Brewers team that has a 29.0 percent K% in September, but there is not much to be gained from starting Marvel for this outing.

Asher Wojciechowski (3-8, 5.38) vs. SEA | 5%

Wojciechowski grabbed our attention with a pair of outstanding starts in late July against the Red Sox and Angels, but since then, he has a 6.64 ERA and a 16.7 percent strikeout rate. For awhile, starting Wojciechowski felt like trading off ERA to get strikeouts, but he hasn’t really held up his end of that bargain. He didn’t offer fantasy owners much in his last two starts, against the Tigers and Rangers, which appeared to be good matchups, so there is little point in using him against the Mariners.

T.J. Zeuch (1-0, 4.61) at NYY | 0%

Zeuch will draw the Yankees for the second time in six days, and there is little reason to think he will fare as well as he did last Sunday, when he held them to three runs (two earned) on five hits and three walks over 5.1 innings. The sinkerballer has not been throwing strikes (39.5 percent Zone%) and has put up an abysmal 21.1 percent O-Swing%. He can’t afford to clog up the bases against this lineup.

Brock Burke (0-1, 5.19) at OAK | 15%*

Burke started off his career with three quality starts, but he relied heavily on an 85.7 percent strand rate. Regression has treated the lefty harshly in his last two starts, as he has yielded 12 runs in eight innings. A 5.0 percent SwStr% and a 2.08 HR/9 is a bad combination, and that’s what Burke will bring to Oakland.

Chi Chi González (1-6, 6.23) at LAD | 1%*

While González won’t make this start in Coors Field, facing the Dodgers at their park is not an easy assignment. There is not much, if anything, that recommends him for this start. González has been contact-friendly (7.1 percent SwStr%), walk-prone (12.7 percent BB%), homer-prone (1.73 HR/9) and inefficient (4.11 P/PA).

Statistical credits: FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, Baseball Savant.





Al Melchior has been writing about Fantasy baseball and sim games since 2000, and his work has appeared at CBSSports.com, BaseballHQ, Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster and FanRagSports. He has also participated in Tout Wars' mixed auction league since 2013. You can follow Al on Twitter @almelchiorbb and find more of his work at almelchior.com.

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Jimmember
4 years ago

“Marvel has a comically-low . . .”

Good one.