Archive for fantasy baseball

The mystery of the Cubs’ bullpen usage from Tuesday night was solved on Wednesday. The team placed closer Pedro Strop on the IL with a strained left hamstring, which helps to explain why Joe Maddon went with Steve Cishek in the top of the ninth inning in a 2-2 game with the Marlins.

Maddon turned to Cishek for an actual save situation on Wednesday, but only after Kyle Ryan started off the top of the ninth to face switch-hitter Neil Walker, whose 14 plate appearances against lefties had produced one single this season. Ryan departed after allowing Walker’s second single against southpaws this season, so Cishek came in and still needed three outs to preserve a 2-1 lead. A Starlin Castro single, a wild pitch and a Miguel Rojas RBI groundout later, Cishek was tagged with his first blown save of 2019. The Cubs ultimately prevailed in 11 innings with Carl Edwards Jr. getting the win.
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Apparently if you get the save against the Blue Jays, they name the building after you. So probably because the portion of the Jays’ lineup that was due up against the Twins called for a lefty reliever, rather than a righty, their home park is not called Parker Centre.

With the Twins up 3-0 heading into the bottom of the ninth inning, Rocco Baldelli summoned Taylor Rogers to handle Justin Smoak (.216 Avg, .135 ISO versus lefties), the right-handed Randal Grichuk (.317 Avg, but a .122 ISO vs. LHP) and Rowdy Tellez. The choice nearly backfired, as Grichuk singled and then Rogers stayed in to face Vladimir Guerrero Jr. after retiring Tellez. Guerrero singled, putting runners on the corners, but Rogers induced a Billy McKinney grounder to end the game.
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After a 2018 breakout season, Kyle Freeland gave us a lot to be confused about on draft day. As a rookie in 2017, Freeland defied conventional wisdom about Rockies pitchers, posting a lower-than-average HR/FB ratio at Coors Field (10.3 percent), and then he did it again last season (12.6 percent). He even took a relatively modest 92.0 mph average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives (EV FB/LD) at home and lowered it to 91.2 mph. While Freeland had been especially effective at limiting homers with his four-seam fastball, last season, he was able to hit another level by getting more whiffs on his cutter.

We owners didn’t know exactly what to do with a pitcher who had consistent success at Coors Field. We didn’t treat him like the top 25 starter that he was in 2018, and for good reason. Skepticism about his home splits aside, Freeland benefited from an 82.8 percent strand rate that he was almost sure to regress from significantly. He had earned enough trust to be among the top 175 players taken overall on average, according to both FantasyPros and NFBC ADP. Even with a lower strand rate on the horizon, Freeland’s 3.67 FIP and 200-plus innings showed the potential value he could have for owners this year. To buy into the FIP and the innings, though, you had to buy into his homer-thwarting abilities.
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Max Muncy mashing lefties? Alex Verdugo, David Bote, Wilmer Flores and Yangervis Solarte picking up some extra playing time? It’s just part of what’s been going on in National League lineups lately. Here is this week’s rundown.

Arizona

The only change of note for the Diamondbacks in recent days is that Jarrod Dyson may be falling out of favor against righties. In two of the team’s last five games against right-handed starters, Ketel Marte has gotten the nod in center field, with Flores taking over at second base. Flores is starting to heat up, going 5 or his last 12, so maybe this trend has some lasting power.
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Heading into Tuesday night’s game with the Pirates, Jose Leclerc had not pitched in a high-leverage situation in nine days. His two most recent appearances occurred in blowouts, as he tried to work out the command issues that had plagued him for much of the season. Chris Woodward ended Leclerc’s sabbatical from closing on Tuesday night, deploying him in a save situation, as the Rangers held a 3-0 lead going into the top of the ninth.

Leclerc had actually been highly effective against righties this season, holding them to a .130 Avg prior to Tuesday, but to shut down the Pirates, he had to run the gauntlet of switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds and Cole Tucker and left-handed Adam Frazier. He did not retire any of them, and Frazier’s single scored Reynolds, cutting the Rangers’ lead to two runs. Leclerc was on the verge of getting out of the jam, striking out Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco in succession, but Josh Bell (another switch-hitter) laced a game-tying double into left center. Fortunately for Leclerc, Bell unsuccessfully tried to extend the double into a triple, so he avoided further damage.
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Last week, Paul Sporer had some highly encouraging things to say about Hunter Dozier in his piece on early batter breakouts. Paul noted that Dozier has radically changed his approach in the early going, and with another week’s worth of data to consider, at least one of his changes remains staggering to ponder. Last season, Dozier was more aggressive than the typical major league hitter, swinging at 50.1 percent of the pitches he saw. Just over a month into this season, he has become extremely selective, lowering his Swing% to less than three-fourths (37.0 percent) of what it was in 2018.

The improved production that we have seen from Dozier — the higher walk rate, lower strikeout rate, higher Avg and OBP and possibly also the increased power as well — can all be traced back in part to this one change in approach. It’s still early enough in the season that it is more than reasonable to ask if his improvement is for real. If we answer that question by looking at the peripherals that underlie Dozier’s improved fantasy stats, we’d have to say it does look real.
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The fog seems to be clearing from the Padres’ outfield situation, but even with Matt Kemp out, it’s not apparent whether or not the Reds have a timeshare in center field. Also, the playing time situations for Colin Moran, Alex Verdugo and Raimel Tapia bear watching. Details are just below.
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For the second night in a row, Emilio Pagan notched a save for the Rays against the Royals, tossing a perfect inning in both contests. He is not anywhere near the top of the most-added lists on ESPN and CBS, but he is at the very top of Yahoo’s list. Pagan was called into closer duty on both occasions because the usual candidates — Jose Alvarado and Diego Castillo — were unavailable due to heavy workloads over the weekend.

Because Kevin Cash sent us a strong signal that Pagan is next-in-line for saves after Alvarado and Castillo, he now sits behind the Rays’ two main high-leverage relievers in our closer grid. Even without saves, Pagan is not a bad reliever to own in holds leagues and deeper formats. He gets swings-and-misses (career 14.1 percent SwStr%) and a ton of popups, and he throws strikes, making him a reliable bet to post a low WHIP.
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I know it’s early, but I think we can spot a pattern with Mychal Givens.

It’s fair to call Givens the Orioles’ primary closer, but a better (if not catchier) title would be “guy who comes in to clean up a mess in the eighth inning.” On Thursday night, and for the fifth time this season, Givens was called upon with runners on base in the eighth inning. Paul Fry and Evan Phillips had already allowed the Rays to whittle a 5-2 lead down to 5-4, but Givens restored order by getting the final two outs. In coming back out for the ninth inning, Givens had a chance to collect his first save of the season, but a one-out solo shot by Avisail Garcia ruined that.
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We are now three full weeks into the season, and managers are starting to respond to players’ hot and cold starts. That gives the fantasy owners of players like Brian Dozier, Kyle Schwarber, and Ender Inciarte something more to think about, and owners of Yasmani Grandal and Manuel Margot something to feel good about.

Here are the lineup and batting order trends of note for each of the 15 teams in the senior circuit.
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