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The Phillies, Red Sox and Twins have made it difficult to know who we can rely on for saves, but that’s been pretty much by design. Suddenly, the Braves’ bullpen has become possibly the toughest one to figure out.

When the Braves placed Arodys Vizcaino (shoulder) on the IL on Sunday, that appeared to actually simplify their bullpen situation, as A.J. Minter figured to inherit virtually all of the save opportunities. The lefty fared well enough on Sunday night, pitching a perfect ninth inning in a Braves 7-3 win over the Mets. The stakes were a little higher on Tuesday night, as Minter was charged with keeping the score knotted at 6-6, giving his offense a chance to top the Diamondbacks in the bottom of the ninth inning with a single run. It took only two pitches for Minter to allow the Diamondbacks to surge ahead, as Christian Walker drove a cutter in the middle of the strike zone for a solo home run. He was charged with two more runs when Jacob Webb allowed an Adam Jones double that brought in two inherited baserunners.
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After Monday’s smallish slate of games, there have been a total of 241 games played so far this season. That’s 9.9 percent of the total schedule. By the time Tuesday’s games are done, the status bar will have moved to 10.5 percent. For a very brief moment, we still have the opportunity to say, “we’re not even 10 percent through this season!”. That’s something of a comfort when coping with the angst that comes with having drafted players who underperform early in the season.

Mike Podhorzer has looked into a number of slow starters in separate columns for hitters and pitchers, and a couple of the subjects from the latter column have been particularly concerning to me. Mike pointed out that Carlos Carrasco and Miles Mikolas are both posting a lower SwStr% so far this season, but what had caught my eye about them was where they were ranking on Baseball Savant’s leaderboard for exit velocity on flyballs and line drives (EV FB/LD).
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Perplexing bullpen situations did not get less perplexing on Sunday.

After the Phillies’ 3-1, 14-inning win over the Marlins, I am leaving their portion of the closer grid untouched, but that hardly means that the saves picture is getting clearer. Brian Anderson‘s home run in the bottom of the sixth inning knotted the game up at 1-1, and it would stay that way for seven-and-a-half innings. Because the Phillies were the visiting team, it’s hard to read too much into Gabe Kapler’s choice to use Pat Neshek in the seventh, Adam Morgan and Hector Neris in the eighth and David Robertson in the ninth and 10th.
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The past week in lineups has featured some interesting developments, including a couple of bottom-of-the-order hitters being highly productive and the outfield mixes for the Padres and Giants shifting a bit. I’m breaking the lineups down, team-by-team, starting…now.

Arizona

With Jake Lamb (quad) out for at least five more weeks, first base appears to belong to Christian Walker, as he had started every game since Lamb went on the IL up until Thursday night’s game against the Padres. Jarrod Dyson has started six of the seven games with a right-handed starter, all in center field. That hasn’t resulted in a reduced role for Ketel Marte, as he has started every game so far, playing second base when Dyson is in center field. It’s Wilmer Flores who has gotten squeezed out of playing time, starting only seven of the team’s 13 games.
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We often begin this column with the grisly details of the latest reliever meltdown. So why not start things off this time with some good news?

A pair of closers who had forgettable 2018 seasons are off to a nice start in 2019. Ken Giles recorded his third save in as many tries on Tuesday, securing the Blue Jays’ 7-5 win over the Red Sox. He has yet to allow a run in 5.2 innings, though this appearance was a little more eventful than his past ones from this season. Giles issued his first walk of the year, which came on the heels of a Dustin Pedroia leadoff single. Then he needed all of three pitches to retire Blake Swihart and Andrew Benintendi, and after going to a full count on Mookie Betts, Giles finished him off by getting him to chase a low slider.
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Trevor Williams ranked 32nd in Roto value for standard 12-team mixed leagues last season. Yet the Pirates’ righty typically went undrafted in those formats this year (292 FantasyPros ADP), and it’s not hard to figure out why. Williams was below average as a strikeout pitcher (18.0 percent K-rate) and didn’t stand out as a control pitcher or inducer of chases or ground balls. His .261 BABIP and 76.6 percent strand rate were just favorable enough to make owners suspicious.

I liked the 2018 version of Williams. I drafted him in my 12-team Head-to-Head points league and wish I had picked him up in a few more places. Last season, there were three pitchers who allowed at least 500 batted balls, averaged less than 91 mph on exit velocity on flyballs and line drives and averaged less than 83 mph on exit velocity on ground balls. They were Williams, Zack Wheeler and Miles Mikolas. In research I conducted this offseason with Alex Chamberlain, we learned that EV FB/LD has been positively correlated with HR/FB over the last four seasons and EV GB has positively correlated with BABIP. Both EV measurements have also had statistically significant (p < .05) year-to-year correlations.
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Having recorded his second save of the season, Ryan Brasier has surged into lead for saves in the Red Sox’s bullpen. However, there will be no such surging into the lead spot in the Red Sox’s portion of the closer grid.

It appears that Alex Cora may trust Matt Barnes to handle the highest leverage situations, and over the long haul, that could translate into more saves for him than for Brasier. On Sunday, as soon as the Red Sox took a 1-0 lead against the Diamondbacks on Mitch Moreland’s homer in the top of the seventh inning, Cora installed Barnes to pitch in the bottom of the inning to face the 4-5-6 portion of the Arizona order. He stayed on to pitch the eighth inning as well and retired all six batters he faced. With the top of the order due, Brasier came in to finish off the Diamondbacks and did so, allowing only a David Peralta double.
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We went into Thursday’s skimpy slate of games with eight of the majors’ closer situations marked as committees in our grid, and we are now up to nine. A.J. Minter (shoulder) made his return from the IL on Thursday, and while he did not pitch in a save situation, he was called upon with one out in the ninth inning after Chad Sobotka let a 9-0 lead over the Cubs shrink to a 9-3 lead. Prior to Thursday night’s game, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that Minter would share save opportunities with incumbent closer Arodys Vizcaino.
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Heading into the season, there were a number of playing time situations that were still unsettled. Now that we have a week’s worth of games behind us, some of the mysteries have been solved — or at least recognizable lineup patterns are starting to take shape.

Let’s take a trip around the National League and see what’s been happening on lineup cards.
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The Yankees have seemingly endured a season’s worth of hardships in less than a week, but through their first four games, they didn’t have to worry about Aroldis Chapman. He tossed scoreless innings in each of his first two appearances, but in Tuesday night’s game against the Tigers, Chapman was at the center of the drama.

Not able to muster much offense against Jordan Zimmermann, Daniel Stumpf and Joe Jimenez, the Yankees found themselves knotted with the Tigers at 1-1 heading into the top of the ninth. Chapman entered the game and started off well enough, striking out John Hicks on three pitches. The tide turned quickly, though, as he walked Niko Goodrum and then allowed a first-pitch RBI double to Dustin Peterson. Chapman would give up two more singles in the inning, including a Jordy Mercer hit that brought in Peterson.
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