With the 2012 season just a few short weeks away, it’s time for the return of the Roto Riteup to the RotoGraphs lineup. If you were not reading the site late last season, this will be new to you. And you will enjoy it.

Now, onto the notes:

• – Hopefully you’ve heard by now that Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter is questionable for opening day after discovering he has a bulging cervical disk. Lance Lynn, previously slotted for the bullpen, will begin to prepare to open the season in the rotation just in case Carpenter can’t make it back. Lynn was a starter throughout his minor league career, but his results weren’t spectacular. His stats weren’t stunning, but his repertoire is nice. Lynn has a sweet power-sinker and a decent curve, so there’s no reason to think he couldn’t at least fill in as a starter. If you play in a dynasty or similar format, make sure to snatch Lynn up. At the very least, he’ll fill your RP slot with Ks and the occasional spot start. Read the rest of this entry »

Indeed, I’ve gazed deeply into my crystal ball to present to you yet another set of RotoGraphs bold predictions for 2012. I eagerly anticipate your commentary wrath.

1. Dan Haren wins 20 games. He had pretty rotten run support in 2011 and the Angels did a little something in the off-season that might affect run production. Haren had nine no decisions in which he posted a 2.90 ERA, 0.952 WHIP and an 8.0 K/9. There were 11 games in which the Angels scored two or fewer runs in and Haren won just three of them — but he posted a 2.12 ERA, 0.769 WHIP and a 7.8 K/9. Something’s gotta give, and I say he gets the better end of the wish bone in 2012.

Read the rest of this entry »

– Unofficial crowdsourcing question: Will Dan Uggla be overvalued next season because of his hitting streak, or will he be undervalued because of his extremely slow start? You may not say he will be valued appropriately, because we all know that never happens.

Read the rest of this entry »

To close out our series of looks at the values of players in ottoneu Pick Six, we look today at pitchers.  As before, the numbers below are based on weighted averages of THT’s Oliver and BPro’s PECOTA (more weight to Oliver b/c it includes this season’s data).  The numbers are FP (FanGraphs Points per IP), though keep in mind that for starters this number is divided by four to keep starters from being the only thing that matters in pick six.

Starting Pitchers

Elite Five (they cost a fortune, but they’re worth it)

Tim Lincecum, 5.33 FP/IP, $48
Josh Johnson, 5.21 FP/IP, $38
Felix Hernandez, 5.04 FP/IP, $49
Cliff Lee, 5.04 FP/IP, $43
Roy Halladay, 5.01 FP/IP, $52

Johnson’s injury risk has kept his value down in traditional ottoneu, but when he’s healthy (currently has shoulder ouchie), he’s the best value of this group.  But you can’t go wrong here: more than any other pitchers in baseball, these guys should give you lots of productive innings per start.

Read the rest of this entry »

For years I have preached about the immense depth at starting pitching.  You can find plenty of quality starters for cheap in your draft and, with the help of the waiver wire, can build a successful fantasy rotation without having to invest heavily in an ace or two.  With a nice complement of some quality relievers, you can go cheap on starters and, in turn, bulk up on better hitters.  In the end, your team dominates in the offensive categories, puts up a solid showing in almost all of the pitching categories, and leaves you at the top of your standings by season’s end. Read the rest of this entry »

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen, first basemen, third basemen, right fielders, left fielders and center fielders.)

Of course, when it comes to pitchers, the format suffers. We’re certainly not about to do tiered rankings for the top 75+ pitchers that get drafted every year in mixed leagues – that would be one long post. Instead, I’m going to cover the pitchers by their location on your team. The first group consists of pitchers that could or should be selected to be fantasy aces in 2010. Let’s take a look.

This is where I drop some caveats. Everyone has their preferences, so order this tier as you will. The first tier is meant to be the no-doubt-about-it group. All of these guys won’t give you the strikeouts of Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke, but they’ll come within a strikeout or two per nine innings. They won’t all have the miniscule WHIPs of Dan Haren or Roy Halladay, but none of them should break 1.2 in that category. They won’t all be the horse that CC Sabathia is, but they’ve all (so far) shown the ability to put close to 200 innings together. There are no guarantees when it comes to elbows and shoulders, but these guys look like bonafide studs.

The next group ain’t too shabby themselves. The first three only have question marks because they’re young and haven’t been doing this for ages. Despite my worries about Jon Lester’s walk rate in the minors, he hasn’t shown any problems since he made his cancer recovery. Felix Hernandez broke out last year, and just needs to show it again. Justin Verlander seems to have fixed his delivery, but will what broke before break again? The next two guys have question marks are about age and health. Chris Carpenter is a walking question mark, and his ongoing health issues make him overvalued after strong years and undervalued after injured years. In other words, I owned him often last year and may not own him once next year. Instead, I may own Johan Santana often this year, who should be next year’s Carpenter, despite his worrisome declining velocity and strikeout rates. Cliff Lee never had great strikeout rates to begin with and is going to the tougher league, but he may get some support for a higher ranking.

Originally, there was a tier between Lee and Adam Wainwright, but that tier was born more of intuition than anything in the numbers. Wainwright made just as big of a leap forward as King Felix in some ways, why should he be in another tier? Perhaps this imaginary tier has a combination of questions. Wainwright broke out – and has durability questions. Josh Johnson can probably repeat his performance, given his history, but he has definite durability questions. He’s put together just 364 innings total from 2007-2009. Josh Beckett is a favorite of mine, but for some reason he keeps putting up ERAs that are much higher than his FIPs, and maybe that’s just how he rolls. Ubaldo Jimenez induces mad ground balls and strikes out plenty, but his stats are still borderline. Aw, heck, put that tier back in.

The “just off” tier gives you a preview of some nice SP2 values that you could pair with a late SP1 for your best strategic approach. Consider that the number one pitcher on this list is projected by Bill James to put up an 2.80 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with 261 strikeouts, while the tenth guy may “only” contribute 3.08 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 224 strikeouts. That, my friends, is why you wait to draft your starting pitchers.

Recently, reader Pat left a comment on an article, asking:

“Can’t alot of pitchers HR/FB rates be expected to increase in the second half just due to the weather? … [T]herefore it would seem like a good strategy in a points league to stack pitching in the first half (and then look to make moves around the allstar break to acquire hitters).”

The reasoning here is that since bats tend to heat up as the weather gets warmer, hoard pitching early and then pick up hitters when the season is in full swing and 80 and 90 degree days are the norm.

Seems like a reasonable strategy, but would it work?

Since we would hoard pitchers early, let’s look at the top 20 starting pitchers, as determined by the final dollar values from the RotoTimes Player Rater, and check out their monthly HR and HR/FB data.

If HR prevention is the goal of this strategy, 16 of our 20 top pitchers had a HR/FB rate less than 11 percent in the final month of the season. Even August, the month last year where more HR by far were hit than any other, saw eight of our 20 pitchers have a HR/FB rate beneath 11 percent.

And this does not even take into account that the pitchers who were ranked top 20 at the beginning of the year often are nowhere to be found near the top of the leaderboard at the conclusion of the year. Using my friend Troy Patterson’s 2009 Starting Pitcher Rankings, here are the ones that did not make the top 20 at the end of the year:

Johan Santana (1), Brandon Webb (4), Jake Peavy (5), Cole Hamels (8), James Shields (10), Roy Oswalt (11), Ervin Santana (13), John Lackey (14), AJ Burnett (15), Edinson Volquez (16), Scott Kazmir (17), Carlos Zambrano (18), Chad Billingsley (19) and Daisuke Matsuzaka (20).

If you went into your draft convinced to load up on pitching, you could have wound up with a staff of Santana, Webb, Peavy, Hamels, Oswalt, Lackey and Burnett and at the All-Star break found other owners willing to offer you very little hitting in return.

Now, let us look at how pitchers as a whole fared in 2009. Here are the first and second half splits for all of the pitchers in MLB in 2009:

1st half – 4.32 ERA, 1.389 WHIP
2nd half – 4.33 ERA, 1.391 WHIP

It does not always work out this close, but this is yet another example of how easy this strategy could go awry.

Finally, you also have to consider how your league will handle trading with you when you have such an obvious need for hitters. Will your league-mates be willing to help you out and offer fair or even somewhat reasonable trades given how needy you are for offense? In friendly leagues that might not be a problem but it would likely be a bigger issue the more competitive your league is.

The best pitchers can dominate (or like Rodriguez in June – get lit up) at any point in the season. Stacking up on pitching only to turn around and deal it for hitting at the All-Star break seems like the fantasy baseball equivalent of market timing and not the best way to ensure long-term success.

Stock Up

Joe Mauer, Twins

I know, everyone reading this site is well aware of Mr. Mauer’s exploits this season. But as Dave Cameron recently noted, we’re entering historic territory here; Joe could be having the best offensive season of any backstop, ever.

The 26 year-old with the silky-smooth lefty swing has performed like a Ted Williams/Josh Gibson hybrid, batting an unfathomable .378/.449/.638, with a .457 wOBA. Despite not making his 2009 debut until May 1st, Mauer has accumulated 6.6 Wins Above Replacement. That leads all major league players. That’s like a sprinter giving his competition a head start, and then dusting them all anyway, running the last quarter of the race backwards for kicks.

I’m not going to delve too deeply into MVP voting philosophy here-the reason for an ostensibly individual award being tethered to team performance has always evaded me. Should we penalize Mauer for not being able to put Delmon Young on base via telekinesis? But, here’s a quick Mauer/Teixeira comparison, with their respective ranks in WAR among hitters:

Mauer: 6.6 WAR, 1st
Teixeira: 4.1 WAR, 24th

Chris Carpenter, Cardinals

Carp essentially didn’t pitch the past two seasons, yet he has returned with a vengeance in 2009. He has been fortunate with a .268 BABIP and a 5.8 HR/FB%, but even when one corrects for those numbers, the 34 year-old is among the very best in the game. In 145.2 IP, Carpenter owns a 3.38 XFIP (based on a pitcher’s walks, strikeouts and a normalized HR/FB rate). Only Lincecum, Vazquez and Haren can top that mark in the NL.

Carpenter does everything that one desires from a starter: he misses a decent amount of bats (6.86 K/9), is extremely stingy with the walks (1.42 BB/9) and wages a ground-based assault on opposing batters (54.7 GB%). Everything in Carp’s bag of tricks is working: his 93 MPH fastball (+2.13 runs/100 pitches), 87 MPH slider/cutter (+1.89 runs/100) and 75 MPH curve (+1.82) give hitters fits.

Matt LaPorta, Indians

What’s a guy got to do to get a promotion around here? LaPorta (the centerpiece of last summer’s Sabathia blockbuster with Milwaukee) posted a robust .299/.380/.530 at AAA Columbus. The 6-2 right-handed batter worked the count well (11.1 BB%), lowered his whiff rate (16.6%) and also posted a .231 ISO. Yet, LaPorta received only a small cameo with the big club earlier in the year. Manager Eric Wedge also made some mildly alarming comments about the slugger back in April:

“LaPorta is so young, just out of college. He’s off to a good start, and his day will come.” (Ohio.com)

Why is that alarming? Well, 1). LaPorta is 24 years old, 2). he’s a polished hitter out of the University of Florida, and 3). he was a senior sign, as an injury during his junior season caused him to slip in the draft, and 4). LaPorta has a career .291/.384/.557 line in the minors. That profile looks about as major league-ready as possible.

LaPorta’s ultimate position has yet to be determined, but he should provide plenty in the secondary skills department (walks and power) for Cleveland and fantasy owners alike.

Charlie Haeger, Dodgers

Perhaps more than any other sport, baseball features an eclectic mix of human beings. Within the confines of one clubhouse, you may well find a guy tall enough to play power forward in the NBA, and another who couldn’t scrape the “You Must Be This Tall To Ride” sign at an amusement park. There are ivy-league educated players, guys signed out of Latin America at age 16 and Far East Imports. That clubhouse likely has a bonus baby with a seven-figure bank account, and a minor league journeyman used to crashing at Motel 8’s and chowing down on peanut butter sandwiches.

In short, baseball is a sport full of atypical people. And flutterball specialists have a special place in the hears of most fans. Haeger, a former White Sox prospect who also briefly appeared with the Padres, has made two pretty successful starts for the Dodgers. The soon-to-be 26 year-old did posted a 4.67 FIP at AAA Albuquerque, and has allowed 3 runs with a 9/4 K/BB with the Dodgers in 14 frames. For more on Haeger, check out Erik Manning’s post here.

Matt Holliday, Cardinals

So much for the whole..”can’t hit outside of Coors” thing. Holliday has long been a quality hitter, cozy home ballpark or no. He posted an average of +41.8 Batting Runs per season from 2006-2008 (that’s park-adjusted), and his obscene hitting with the Cardinals has boosted his 2009 Batting Runs total to 28.6. He’ll likely finish the season somewhere around +35 to +37 Batting Runs, pretty close to his production in the sudsy wonderland of the Rockies. The pending free agent is a superstar, no matter where he plays his ball games.

Stock Down

Kyle Lohse, Cardinals

Lohse did not appear fully healthy upon returning from a forearm strain. He was blasted for.320/.353/.547 opponent line in August, and now heads back to the DL with a groin strain. In the first year of a 4-year, $41 M deal, Lohse has provided 0.8 WAR ($3.7 M worth of value). The Cardinals have to hope he’ll bounce back, as Kyle is owed about $8.9M in 2010 and roughly $11.9M in both 2011 and 2012.

Alfonso Soriano, Cubs

There’s a laundry list of reasons as to why the Cubs currently have less than a 1-in-17 chance of making the playoffs. Aramis Ramirez and Geovany Soto suffered injuries. Milton Bradley’s power was abducted by aliens on the way to Wrigley. The mileage on Big Z’s arm at a young age appears to be making him increasingly fragile.

Soriano’s sordid 2009 season has contributed to the mess as well. After posting wOBA’s of .380 and .374 during his first two seasons with the Cubs, Soriano has fallen off a cliff to .313 this year. Some of that dip might be poor luck on balls put in play- Soriano’s BABIP is .278, and according to this expected BABIP calculator, Alfonso’s BABIP “should” be around .305.

That still doesn’t fully explain Soriano’s season, though. His HR/FB% has fallen from 17.1% in 2008 to 11.4% in 2009. He’s still hitting fastballs well (+0.67 runs/100 pitches), though not at his usual prolific level (+1.93 career). However, Soriano has posted negative run values (curves and changeups have been particularly poisonous) against every other pitch except for cutters.

Soriano will make $18 million annually from 2010-2014, his age 34-38 seasons. If a win above replacement is worth roughly $4.5M on the free agent market, then Alfonso must produce a full 4 WAR per season for the Cubs to break even on the exchange. Color me skeptical that he’ll come anywhere near that level.

Michael Bowden, Red Sox

Bowden’s placement here isn’t really about his debacle of a relief appearance against the Yankees on August 21st (though I’m sure he would like to erase the 2-inning, 7 R disaster from his memory bank, Men In Black-style). Rather, it’s about his larger body of work in the minors this season.

The 2005 supplemental first-rounder wreaked havoc on batters in a 2008 season split between AA Portland and AAA Pawtucket (144.1 IP, 8.1 K/9, 1.8 BB/9), but 2009 has been more of a shrug-inducing effort. That’s not to say that Bowden has been bad, but his numbers with the Paw Sox (115.1 IP, 6.4 K/9, 3.4 BB/9) are a little underwhelming.

The 6-3, 215 pound righty has a quality curve and changeup, but he tends to use a fastball of modest velocity and movement up in the zone. That leads to boat loads of flyballs- Bowden’s GB% in AAA was just 31 percent. An extreme flyball pitcher, in the AL, is going to need more than average control to perform well (Bowden’s Major League Equivalent FIP in his time with Pawtucket was 5.13).

John Lannan, Nationals

Lannan’s ERA in 2008 (3.91) was considerably lower than his XFIP (4.47), and he has outdone his XFIP again this season (4.03 ERA, 4.74 XFIP). However, the gap is closing, with the lefty getting drubbed for 19 runs in 18 August frames. He has issued 11 walks, while punching out nine batters.

The 24 year-old boasts above-average control (2.97 BB/9 in 2009) and groundball tendencies (51.3 GB%). However, his strikeout rate has dipped from slightly below average in 2008 (5.79 K/9) to an untenable 3.75 per nine frames. Compared to last season, hitters are chasing fewer of his pitches (26.1% in ’08, 21.3% in ’09; 25% MLB avg.) and are making more contact (83.1 contact% in ’08, 89% in ’09; 80.6% MLB avg). He’s certainly a serviceable back-rotation hurler, but Lannan is more of a 4.50 ERA+ guy than the high-3, low 4 ERA pitcher that we have seen so far.

Alex Gordon, Royals

The ethics of service time manipulation has become a hot topic of late. We have seen potential “Super Two” players down the road (guys with more than two but less than three years of service time, in the top 17% of service time among players in the class) being kept down until the financial coast is clear (think Travis Snider) and other established young vets like J.J. Hardy being farmed out in order to push back free agency by a year.

Gordon falls into the discussion now. By sending the former Nebraska star back to AAA, the Royals delay Gordon’s free agency by a season. While the timing is awfully convenient, the 25 year-old has endured a nightmarish season. He missed a considerable chunk of the year following hip surgery, and has posted a paltry .290 wOBA in 110 PA. He often rolled over on the ball, hitting grounders at a 51.5% clip. Gordon was supposed to be a star by now, and he appeared to make progress in 2008 by upping his walk rate considerably. He’s no sure-fire stud anymore, but I don’t think it’s time to write him off, either.

You’ll have to forgive Cardinals fans who became nostalgic yesterday afternoon, watching former pitching messiah Chris Carpenter twirl a seven-inning masterpiece versus the hapless Pirates. For one game anyway, it was 2006 all over again.

The fact that Carpenter is even able to take the mound at this point in his career is a testament to modern medicine. Carp suffered a torn labrum as a Toronto Blue Jay back in 2002, which Baseball Prospectus med-head Will Carroll called “a professional death sentence for pitchers.”

Of course, the big right-hander did not go silently into the night, eventually establishing new heights with the Cardinals. Carpenter showed promise with the Jays, generally posting Fielding Independent ERA’s in the low-to-mid fours, but he morphed into a bona-fide ace with the Red Birds. Carp was once supposed to team up with Toronto stud Roy Halladay to form a dynamic one-two punch north of the border. While that didn’t occur, Carpenter essentially became a Doc Halladay doppelganger from 2004 to 2006:

2004: 182 IP, 7.52 K/9, 1.88 BB/9, 52.2 GB%, 3.85 FIP
2005: 241.2 IP, 7.93 K/9, 1.90 BB/9, 54.5 GB%, 2.90 FIP
2006: 221.2 IP, 7.47 K/9, 1.75 BB/9, 53.3 GB%, 3.44 FIP

Carpenter’s pro career reached its apex in ’06: not only did he celebrate a World Series title, but he also inked a lucrative contract extension that winter. The Cards locked up their mended ace for five years and $63 million, plus a 2012 club option.

Unfortunately, his stardom was once again put on hold. The immense workload shouldered during Carpenter’s Cy Young 2005 season and championship-winning 2006 campaign had taxed his body. He went under the knife for Tommy John surgery, but as Carroll explains, his path back to the majors has been rife with sharp left turns:

“During his rehab, though, things have gone anything but predictably. He had a shoulder strain as well as nerve issues in his elbow (a common TJ complication) and in his shoulder, a combination which doctors have called “unprecedented.” The nerve transposition in his elbow is perhaps the most controversial element of what was done in Carpenter’s surgery; most surgeons currently move the ulnar nerve as a part of the Tommy John procedure to avoid this kind of setback, but it was not done in Carpenter’s case.” (Will Carroll’s Under The Knife: Chris Carpenter, March 11, 2009).

While it’s anyone’s guess as to how well the 34 year-old will hold up in the long run, Carpenter was stellar in his season-opening start against the Bucs. He did not allow a hit through 6.2 frames, whiffing seven and walking none. Here’s a quick look at Carp’s Pitch F/X data for the game:

Carpenter broke out all of his pitches versus the Pirates, mixing in fastballs, sinkers, cutters, curves, sliders and a couple changeups:

(X is horizontal movement, Z is vertical movement. FB= fastball, SI= sinker, FC= cutter, SL= slider, CB= curveball, CH= changeup).

FB: 93.1 MPH, -10.5 X, 5.39 Z, 27 thrown
SI: 92.6 MPH, -11.55 X, 4.97 Z, 15 thrown
FC: 89.1 MPH, -1.05 X, 6.13 Z, 13 thrown
SL: 88.5 MPH, -0.66 X, 4.4 Z, 16 thrown
CB: 75.5 MPH, 6.6 X, -9.9 Z, 19 thrown
CH: 85.9 MPH, -10 X, 7.3 Z, 2 thrown

Carpenter’s fastball had an absurd amount of tailing action in on the hands of right-handed hitters, with good velocity to boot. He also used the cutter/slider to keep lefties honest, while buckling knees with his dastardly curveball. Look at the movement on that Uncle Charlie: nearly 10 inches of drop, with over six and a half inches of side-to-side movement as well. Think about the plight of the righty hitter for a moment: Carpenter could toss you a fastball that runs right into the nub of your bat, or he could flip a curve way in the opposite direction that just falls off the table. How do you hit that (I suppose you don’t, eh Pirates)?

Keep in mind that this was just one outing, but Chris Carpenter seemingly picked up exactly where he left off in October of 2006. He threw a cornucopia of quality offerings, befuddling batters with a bowling-ball heater and a curve worthy of Vin Scully’s “Public Enemy No. 1” designation. Don’t get too worked up, but Carpenter sure did look like his old self on Thursday afternoon. The Cardinals (on the hook for $43.5 million over the next three years) can only hope it continues.