Archive for Chicago Cubs

It’s an interesting thing to think about that as far as MVP candidates go, Kris Bryant has managed, in the span of a year, to go from the choice for National League MVP to not even in the conversation. What’s even stranger about such a situation is that it’s not like Bryant has fallen off dramatically from a sophomore campaign that featured a WAR over 8. In addition to the early inconsistencies that his team experienced, some of the changes in his game might be leading to him being somewhat of an overlooked quantity at this point, even with the Cubs serving as one of the best teams in baseball since the All-Star break.

Despite his virtual exclusion from any sort of Most Valuable Player discussion, Bryant has actually managed to improve in a number of ways. Sure, there are a couple of aspects in which he’s taken a modest step back, but overall, we’re still talking about a player that ranks at or near the top of the third base category in a number of ways on the offensive side of things. In fact, as far as his Off rating alone is concerned, Bryant ranks at the top of the 26 qualifying players at the hot corner, with his park-adjusted offense coming in at a 142 mark that trails only Justin Turner. Turner is also the only player that bests Bryant in reaching base overall, as Bryant has posted a .402 mark to date that has been the result of some adjustments he made over the course of last year’s offseason.

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Regardless of the events that transpire on Wednesday night in Cleveland, the evening will conclude with a 2016 Champion of Major League Baseball being crowned. The elation that one club and its fans will experience with an extensive drought ending will only be matched in its intensity by the devastation felt by the club and the fans on the other side at seeing their own drought continue. As such, I would be remiss if I didn’t touch on and reflect on the third base matchup that the evening will entail.

Game 7 will feature the overwhelming favorite for the National League Most Valuable Player award in Kris Bryant, while his counterpart, Jose Ramirez, has ridden a breakout regular season to a key role on this gritty Cleveland squad. Bryant represents the best of the best at the hot corner. He’s a member of the elite. Ramirez was mired in an obscure role until Michael Brantley’s injury allowed him an opportunity to crack the everyday lineup. He’s seized that opportunity by utilizing his high contact and baserunning abilities, as well as some clutch play.

While the overall skill set and season statistics obviously favor Bryant, in glaringly obvious fashion, it’ll certainly be interesting to see how each performs at the most strenuous point of the game’s brightest stage. Across a nine inning game, we’re talking about the most minuscule of sample sizes. But it’s still worth wondering what challenges each could present for his opponent, particularly in regard to their ability to make contact, their ability to make strong contact, and the threat that they represent on the bases.

Here’s a broader overview of their regular season performances.

In some regards, they’re not quite as far apart as one might initially think. Both are able to reach base at a really nice clip, but what Ramirez has going for him is his ability to get on base and utilize that speed, while striking out a at a far lower rate. Whereas Bryant represents the significantly more impactful bat in the power game. Ramirez embodies that scrappy type of play that has become the Cleveland narrative. As such, he won’t be an easy out at any point for Kyle Hendricks, especially with his success against the changeup. It’ll be interesting to watch Bryant against Corey Kluber for a third time as well, with Bryant having found his groove at the plate over the last pair of games.

In terms of the ability and type of contact we’ve seen from both, refer to the graph below:

Ramirez has been one of the higher contact guys throughout the season. He’s been aggressive in his approach, and he’s been able to utilize that speed effectively in notching a few extra hits because of it. Bryant may strike out more regularly, but his contact rate is also significantly improved from 2015 and his contact ends up being far harder and, subsequently farther, than that of Ramirez. If what we’ve seen thus far in the series is any indication, Ramirez will use that high contact and baserunning ability to be a thorn in the side of Chicago, and if there’s a big time hit to be made on the part of the Cubs, it could very likely come off the bat of Bryant.

It should be relatively well known at this point what each can do on the bases, as the pair rank 1-2 in BsR. Ramirez sports an 8.8 mark, while Bryant comes in not far behind, at 7.3. Ramirez is a legitimate threat to go, with 22 swipes on the season. This could prompt the Cubs to go with David Ross in order to try and slow he and the other Cleveland runners to an extent. While Bryant isn’t as active in the run game, with only eight steals, he’s still a capable baserunner who has been lauded for his intelligence on the basepaths.

As one-sided as it may seem based off of name recognition alone, it’s still a fun matchup that we’ve been able to watch at the hot corner. You have two players in the top eight in WAR at their position, with both bringing different skill sets to the table. While Bryant obviously represents the higher quality player in a variety of ways, the ways in which both could find a way to impact Game 7 in Cleveland on Wednesday night are countless. Bryant with the big power bat, Ramirez with the high contact ability. With perhaps only nine innings remaining in the 2016 Major League year, this will be one fun matchup in a multitude of things to watch in Wednesday’s final tilt.

My original intention for this week’s column was to continue on with examining some of the 2016 performances of third basemen. However, given recent events, I am now presented with an opportunity to examine a versatile (and, as such, a third base-eligible) player that has easily emerged as one of my favorite players to watch, in all of baseball. This has been a growing trend for me, and many others with North Side loyalties, over the past couple of years. The rest of the country, however, spent the National League Division Series matchup between the Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants learning just what Javier Baez brings to the table.

We’re not going to talk about the glove here. For one, it really speaks for itself. Javy Baez might have the best set of hands I’ve ever seen a baseball player possess. His instincts are off the charts, along with a strong arm. Toss in the athleticism and the versatility, and it’s really no wonder that Joe Maddon is comfortable deploying him at the five different positions at which he appeared this year. He maintains fantasy eligibility at second, shortstop, and, of course, third base.

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As surprising as it may seem, given his immense success in his less than two years at the Major League level, Kris Bryant has come a long way as an offensive player. He’s cut down on his strikeouts. He’s improved his contact rate. These developments have helped to culminate in his status as the top position player in the National League thus far in 2016, according to WAR. But as we saw against James Shields on Tuesday night, which always seems to be the case when the two players meet, there are still some respects in which Bryant could stand to improve.

Now, given where my Major League sympathies lie and the undeniable success that Bryant has experienced in such a short time, it should remain relatively apparent that none of this is meant to disparage the Chicago Cubs third sacker in any sort of manner. And even if one wanted to do so, it’d be very difficult. He’s cut down on his strikeout rate by about seven percent (down to 23.3%, with a decreased swinging strike rate of 13.9%). His overall contact rate is up about five percent (to 71.4%). He’s sporting a .261 ISO. There’s not much of anything to dislike, and that’s just in regard to his offensive game.

But what was abundantly clear on Tuesday night, as Bryant served as the team’s designated hitter, was that he still struggles against the offspeed stuff. In striking out three times against James Shields, just as he did in his Major League debut, Bryant found himself peppered with changeups from the veteran hurler, as he fell to just 1-for-10 with seven punchouts against him in his short career. The goal here is to simply illustrate Kris Bryant’s battle against the offspeed pitches that Shields registered so much success with on Tuesday.

It isn’t that Bryant’s struggles have been magnified beyond that game on Tuesday on the South Side. But it did help to spark acknowledgement of what he has turned in against offspeed pitches throughout his time at the Major League level. The following represent the distribution of pitches that Bryant has seen, swung, and whiffed, respectively:

As is typically the case, offspeed pitches represent the lowest percentage of pitch type that Bryant has seen. And with the exception of an outlier of a month or two over the course of the last two seasons, his swing trends have been relatively consistent in a general sense, regardless of pitch type. Even with those ideas in mind, offspeed pitches have represented the largest percentage of pitches at which he’s swung and missed on a fairly consistent basis.

An additional trio of graphs helps to further illustrate Bryant’s issues with the offspeed stuff, specifically changeups, based off of Tuesday night:

Again, while the percentage isn’t high, low offspeed does represent the majority where Bryant actually see that stuff, in terms of location. Mainly because if you’re a pitcher leaving offspeed up for a hitter like Bryant, you’re probably looking for that ball in another area code. And while he obviously loves the high offspeed (and what Major League hitter doesn’t?), he’s also demonstrated a pretty high Swing% on those low changeups. And he’s demonstrated a low contact rate on those pitches that he’s shown something of a penchant for swinging at, even if the overall amount of times he actually sees offspeed pitching is relatively low. But, again, the purpose here is to illustrate a potential trend more than anything else.

Obviously, there’s plenty to note here. In summation:

• He demonstrates a lower contact rate vs. offspeed than other pitch types.
• The percentage in which he does see offspeed could be increasing ever so slightly.
• BUT..
• He sees offspeed less than other pitch types.
• AND ULTIMATELY..
• Kris Bryant is still a very, very good hitter of baseballs.

At the end of the day, is the offspeed stuff a cause for concern? Not necessarily in any real regard. Bryant typically has the type of approach that can prevent him from falling into a void like he did on Tuesday, thus largely avoiding offspeed pitches. One thing certainly is worth noting, though, that he’s seen offspeed stuff at an average of 13.33% of the time over these past three months, which represents the highest percentage of his short career over any span. It’ll be interesting to see if Major League pitchers continue to make that adjustment, and if they do, it’ll be equally as interesting to see how Kris Bryant makes his own.

People that know me away from the world wide web know that if there’s one thing that I have a soft spot for, it’s super utility types. I have an unabashed love for the guys that you can plug in anywhere and still get a little bit of offensive production from. Ben Zobrist, Josh Harrison, Brock Holt. Love ’em. This is a list that has since grown to include Javier Baez, and while I chose to focus on a member of the Chicago Cubs in my column last week, let’s circle back to the North Side to examine a player that is becoming an intriguing fantasy option each time he finds his way into the lineup. Which is becoming quite a bit of late.

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On Monday against Cincinnati, Kris Bryant had a literally historic night for the Chicago Cubs. In smashing three home runs and adding a pair of doubles against the Reds, Bryant became the first player in Major League history to achieve the feat. It was the latest chapter in what has been one of the greatest starts to a career for any player, ever. That doesn’t mean that Bryant’s short career to this point hasn’t been without those who have attempted to disparage it, of course.

Some predicted a sophomore slump could be in the cards for Bryant, pointing to a lack of contact, a high strikeout rate, and a reliance on the big fly as potential causes of such a scenario. Additionally, one of the primary criticisms for those who had insisted in disparaging Kris Bryant had been his inability to find consistent success on the road. And to a very realistic extent, his home/road splits in 2015 certainly did lend themselves to that very trend.

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In 2015, Kris Bryant put together one of the better rookie campaigns in recent memory. He served as a catalyst for an upstart Chicago Cubs team that reached the National League Championship Series, while taking home National League Rookie of the Year honors. The numbers for a then-23-year-old were remarkable for a player pressed into his first big league action.

Bryant posted a slash of .275/.369/.500/.877, with 26 home runs, 99 runs knocked in, a .213 ISO, and a wRC+ of 136. He maintained a quality approach throughout the year, generating a walk at the plate 11.8% of the time. Of course, there were those who pointed to his outlandish .378 BABIP and frighteningly high 30.6% strikeout rate as potential cause for concern, or at least cause for something of a regression, heading into the 2016 campaign. But having established himself as one of the elite third basemen in baseball already, both in the fantasy realm and otherwise, Kris Bryant hasn’t done anything to scare off owners thus far in 2016.

And it’s thanks to some adjustments that were made over the course of the winter.

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Jason Hammel was never an elite prospect with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, but there was a level of expectation for production that he seemed to fall short of which eventually led to his being traded to Colorado. Predictably, he didn’t flourish there (though he also wasn’t a nightmare, either) and was again traded, this time to Baltimore in 2012. To this point in his career, Hammel was a slightly below league average arm who lacked that reliable offering to thwart lefties consistently and he wasn’t anywhere near dominating righties as a way to make up for it. The move to Baltimore started to turn that tide.

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It’s probably safe to say Anthony Rizzo has silenced skeptics this season. After showing tremendous amounts of promise upon receiving a call up in 2012, he struggled in 2013, but the sky didn’t fall; his peripherals were still good, even improving a little. Still, questions remained, and they were fair. The two largest questions, to me, were: could he hit fastballs? and can he perform versus lefties? Read the rest of this entry »

With the fantasy baseball season coming to an end, we can all now sit back, relax and enjoy the MLB playoffs. If you’ve got a dog in this hunt, I wish you nothing but the best. If not, then pick someone you’ll at least enjoy watching should they win the whole thing. This should be a fun October. But in the meantime, it’s my turn to step up and review the 10 Bold Predictions I made back in late March. I felt pretty good about them going in, and here’s how they ended up coming out… Read the rest of this entry »