Is Javier Baez a Viable and Reliable Entity?

People that know me away from the world wide web know that if there’s one thing that I have a soft spot for, it’s super utility types. I have an unabashed love for the guys that you can plug in anywhere and still get a little bit of offensive production from. Ben Zobrist, Josh Harrison, Brock Holt. Love ’em. This is a list that has since grown to include Javier Baez, and while I chose to focus on a member of the Chicago Cubs in my column last week, let’s circle back to the North Side to examine a player that is becoming an intriguing fantasy option each time he finds his way into the lineup. Which is becoming quite a bit of late.

The first thing of note about Javier Baez as a fantasy option is that he holds positional eligibility at three different spots: second, shortstop, and third base. The versatility alone makes him an intriguing option. The fact that he demonstrates that versatility in real life has allowed him to find his way into the lineup on a near-daily basis, which helps to eliminate one of the potential drawbacks of Baez ownership: the lingering question of is he an everyday player? That’s a question that could help to shed some light on why Baez is owned in a mere third of ESPN and Yahoo! leagues combined. Even after the team is healthy, we will likely still see plenty of Kris Bryant
in the outfield and Baez at third base.

Throughout his short career, Baez has built up a reputation as the freest of swingers. He lacks plate discipline, and while it is improving in a sense, he still sports a strikeout rate just a touch over 23%, while walking at a rate under four percent. His overall body of work doesn’t necessarily lend itself to confidence from fantasy owners, but he’s shown impressive growth as the season has worn on and his plate appearances have gone up:

PA AVG OBP OPS ISO wRC+
April 31 .310 .355 .838 .172 124
May 67 .219 .254 .551 .078 45
June 95 .292 .337 .899 .270 135
July 21 .300 .333 .833 .200 121
Total 214 .272 .313 .773 .188 104

Another important note in relation to his performance throughout the season is that he started late, with only 11 appearances in April due to injury. May clearly represented something of an adjustment period, but he’s been a relatively consistent threat at the plate since finding a rhythm in June. Baez has always been lauded for his batspeed and raw power, two things that he’s demonstrated in spades throughout the bulk of his 200+ plate appearances thus far in 2016, and two elements that are very necessary given his (lack of) approach.

That batspeed has been his friend in his ability to make contact on pitches outside of the zone, where he’s still hacking like a madman, another thing that might represent something of a deterrent for prospective fantasy owners. Jeff Sullivan has a nice writeup on his ability to make contact on those pitches. It isn’t so much an “ability” as it is that less than half of the balls he’s put into play have actually come on pitches inside the strike zone. Which is really quite remarkable. And while it does speak to his lack of discipline, it could, in a way, quell some concerns over his ability to make consistent contact.

Here’s his contact rate, illustrated:

Baez

That same penchant for hacking at pitches outside of the strike zone is obviously still ever present, even if not appearing quite as prevalent. His 42.9% O-Swing% ranks third among players with at least 200 plate appearances. His 64.0% contact rate on those pitches, however, actually represents a significant increase from the 48.6% mark he posted last season. So while he hasn’t necessarily adjusted his approach, his increased experience is allowing him to make more contact while still maintaining a reputation as a freeswinger. He’s also decreased his swinging strike rate, with a 14.6% mark that is down two percent from last year. It’s not too significant, but does help to generate positive ideas about what Javier Baez is becoming at the plate.

Where fantasy owners might find a particularly intriguing element of Baez’s game is in his flyball rate. He has it up about eight percent from last year, with a 39.2 FB%. His 16.1 HR/FB ratio is 12th among 32 third basemen with at least 200 PAs. You’d like to see more hard contact from Baez than his 29.6% Hard% would indicate, but he’s also coming off of a month in which he posted a figure of 37.5%. A formula of hard contact and flyballs from a player like Baez could mean massive production. His ISO for June sat at a cool .270, and he’s at .200 five days into the month of July.

The headline here posed two questions: is Javier Baez even a viable option, let alone a reliable one? In terms of his viability, he’s getting enough plate appearances to be considered. He has 101 PAs over the last 30 days, which is ahead of starting caliber third basemen like Jake Lamb and Adrian Beltre. He’ll continue to maintain that eligibility at the hot corner, but will find his way into the lineup nearly everyday with the Cubs in some form or fashion. But does he actually do enough at the plate to warrant an addition?

His plate discipline is a deterrent, to be sure. He swings at too many pitches, and while he makes a reasonable amount of contact, he still strikes out quite a bit. He’s never going to be a really high-OBP guy, unless his approach improves significantly. At the same time, as an injury sub or depth addition, he provides high upside as a power guy. He hit six home runs in a nearly full-time role in June, his first really healthy month after an adjustment period in May. His power potential alone makes him an intriguing option. As he continues to make adjustments and gets that swing a bit more under control, he should demonstrate ongoing improvement. With Baez so widely available, now might be the time to pounce for a high-upside, depth piece, as he has the potential to be so much more.

Which is exactly what fans on the North Side also believe.





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CJ03
7 years ago

I’m using Espinosa until his magical fairy dust runs out, and then Baez looks like a pretty good replacement when that happens. Do you think the Depth Chart RoS projection for Baez is a fair representation of what we’re going to see? 8HR, 23R, 26RBI with .254/.303/.450?