Archive for Chase Headley

“May Day” is actually an appropriate call for third base because, holy hell, it has been one trial after the last tribulation. Third base has been so tough to staff on some of you, the consideration of just going without has been more attractive than what’s available on the waiver wire. As far as putting this cast of misfits into tiers, I ought to just have Tier One and then “The Rest” as punishment to everyone outside of Detroit. There have been some pleasant surprises of course, so let’s get to it.

A quick note about this particular batch of tiers. In the past, I’ve always liked to temper the rapid movement up or down rankings in May, suggesting that the tiers should represent something akin to a “if the draft were held today…” line of thinking. But given the dearth of production from some players and the rampant injuries, I’d like to think these tiers are a happy median between on-field performance and what we should expect going forward. The stats after each player are the Steamer rest-of-season projections.

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When we do this thing where we categorize players into tidy little compartments it tends to bring out the monsters in many of you. Had I given more attention to some of my cultural anthropology or experimental psychology courses, perhaps I’d have an explanation as to why. But nonetheless intrepid reader, I’ll attempt to put forth my best tiered assessment of the available third basemen to you on draft day.

As you no doubt know, the tiers shift. They move like like an Omar Vizquel with Arthur Rhodes on the mound. But I know that many of you like to aim for top three tier material at as many positions as possible, so perhaps this will help you assuming you haven’t already put together your squads. If you already have and your guy is in tier five, well, condolences.

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Looking at the recent ridiculously early mock draft from a stony selection of the Rotographs raconteurs, I was A) quite pleased that I didn’t participate and subject myself to the scrutiny of the learned readers here and B) struck by the fact that third base continues to give me the heebee jeebees.

Third base has generally been my beat over the last twelve months for Rotographs and the implications of the 2012 season haven’t helped me rest well when thinking about the hot corner. While this year might welcome Chase Headley to the fantasy super-duper we also saw the departure of Jose Bautista due to eligibility, Kevin Youkilis due to Kevin Youkilis, Alex Rodriguez to the girl in the fourth row, and Michael Young to relevance.

And this gives me pause.

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Pop quiz, hotshot. Guess where Chase Headley, our 2012 National League Fantasy Most Valuable Player, was ranked among third basemen prior to the season by Yahoo! Sports. 10th? 15th? Try 22nd, below Michael Young, below Emilio Bonifacio, even below Ryan Roberts.

Now, guess where Headley finished the season at Yahoo!, but not just among his position, where he easily came in as the most valuable third baseman in the NL (and fourth overall); guess where he’s ranked among all players in both leagues, pitchers included: 12th overall. That’s right, the man who couldn’t crack the top 250 players before the season ended up being more valuable fantasy-wise than Robinson Cano, Fernando Rodney, & Gio Gonzalez, at least if you believe Yahoo! Read the rest of this entry »

First off, I’d say no. Very loudly, no. No, no, no. It’s a fools errand if you think you can predict a .399 slugging percentage into .498; a .110 ISO into .212; a HR per-at bat rate of 95 (!) to just 19. Nuts.

However, were there some lingering details about Chase Headley’s batting profile that should have made fantasy owners perhaps a little more bullish on his 2012 prospects? Probably.

Back in December, I suggested you might take a chance on Headley. An excerpt:

“I simply do not accept that Headley’s true talent, even considering the Petco effect, is something in the low 100′s in ISO. He’s turning 28 in May, he’s demonstrated much more power in the past, and if I were a betting type, I’d say we could see something more in the .140′s — which doesn’t turn him into a masher, but it would certainly portend more home runs in the future.”

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With the addition of a second wild card team for each league, the decision to be a buyer or seller at the trade deadline becomes a bit more difficult, despite it being just two weeks away. For the San Diego Padres, however, the decision is neither difficult nor complicated. Sitting 14 games out of both first place in the NL West and the final wild card slot, the Padres will most definitely be sellers over the next two weeks and while collectively, they can’t seem to put it all together, individually there’s some value to be had. It’s time to bring the jalopy to the chop shop and make some money selling off the parts. Read the rest of this entry »

Wasting time with the proverbial series of tubes one day, I stumbled upon one of the dumbest questions I’d seen in a Yahoo! forum. Some sad human being actually asked “how many dimes are in a dollar” on Yahoo, the top response was “How many do you want there to be?” No fooling.

Now, as dreadfully Homer Simpson as that might sound, I actually found sort of a terrifying similarity when looking at one of my fantasy squads. I’ve had such a run of terrible luck at third base that I rather feel like I’m getting about five dimes on the dollar in return for my investment, and well, I’d like there to be more. While I’d prefer to have a neat-and-tidy lineup where I’ve got a stalwart at each position, I’ve had to scramble in a way that has forced me to think well outside the box. Like taking the blue pill kind of outside the box.

Enter the terrible, horrible, no good, very bad home/road split for Chase Headley.

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When he slid into second and immediately grabbed his knee, my heart dropped.  The sickening taste of bile crept up my throat and into my mouth as I anxiously awaited for him to stand up, dust himself off and signal to the trainers that he was fine.  When that didn’t happen and he gingerly limped off the field, immediate thoughts of a torn ACL raced through my head.  In three different leagues I grabbed Evan Longoria at the tail end of the first round and until that moment, I wasn’t giving third base another thought.  Now, with news of a partially torn hamstring and a six to eight week recovery period, I’m left here staring at my computer screen, feeling like Kramer when the Kenny Rogers Roasters sign was finally turned off. Read the rest of this entry »

Tiers seem to unearth the mighty wrath of fantasy baseball enthusiasts, but since we’ve already seen the third base consensus rankings and my general reactions to them thereafter, it’s time to categorize the gentlemen at the five into tidy little compartments of descending desirability.

As you well know, the tiers are not hard and fast — they change (sometimes dramatically) over the course of the first few months of the season. In fact, there’s been movement in these tiers even before I had a chance to publish them! It’s important to remember that these are not keeper tiers — they simply attempt to arrange rough approximations of value in standard 5×5 leagues as you prepare for what might be your final draft(s).

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You’ve probably noticed by now that some of the gentlemen of Rotographs got together in their virtual forum to pull off a 12-team keeper draft over the weekend. Due to other obligations, the lists of participating managers didn’t include yours truly, so hopefully that will give me a bit more objectivity as I make a few observations.

I’ve been the resident third base scribe for the past year, so I’ll dedicate this short post to some of the more interesting picks involving the hot corner.

It didn’t take long for the debate to get brewing as Evan Longoria was selected as the overall #4 pick followed by Jose Bautista, overall #6. Longoria, coming off an injury-shortened season had an usually low batting average at .244, no doubt dragged down by miserable fortune (.239 BABIP). He has been a pretty remarkably consistent player, demonstrating the ability to hit for good average with a take-it-to-the-bank 30 HR’s and 100 RBI profile, assuming you toss out his career low 11% HR/FB from 2010. Bill James currently projects a .275/.370/.535, 35 HR, 116 RBI, 101 run season for Longoria, which probably earns him a #4 overall slot.

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