Third Base Tiers: May

“May Day” is actually an appropriate call for third base because, holy hell, it has been one trial after the last tribulation. Third base has been so tough to staff on some of you, the consideration of just going without has been more attractive than what’s available on the waiver wire. As far as putting this cast of misfits into tiers, I ought to just have Tier One and then “The Rest” as punishment to everyone outside of Detroit. There have been some pleasant surprises of course, so let’s get to it.

A quick note about this particular batch of tiers. In the past, I’ve always liked to temper the rapid movement up or down rankings in May, suggesting that the tiers should represent something akin to a “if the draft were held today…” line of thinking. But given the dearth of production from some players and the rampant injuries, I’d like to think these tiers are a happy median between on-field performance and what we should expect going forward. The stats after each player are the Steamer rest-of-season projections.

Tier One

Name PA HR R RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG
Miguel Cabrera 564 29 89 98 68 78 3 0.322 0.406 0.575

Yup. Why bother saying anything. A rest of season projection that most players would kill for over 162 games. Moving along…

Tier Two

Name PA HR R RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG
David Wright 542 17 70 68 67 101 14 0.282 0.373 0.466
Evan Longoria 469 24 67 75 56 86 4 0.278 0.369 0.526
Pablo Sandoval 446 16 60 67 36 56 2 0.301 0.358 0.504
Adrian Beltre 482 22 65 77 28 59 1 0.292 0.337 0.509

Wright, Longoria, and Sandoval all have been pretty much as advertised. You spent fairly high picks on them, but they’ve been reliable across the counting stats. You worry a little about Panda’s elbow, but assuming you don’t have any other options, just close your eyes and keep driving. Beltre, on the other hand came out of the gate rather slowly, but the power has certainly been there and you can’t count on a .191 BABIP for long. I think he starts hitting for better average shortly. Set the panic button aside.

Tier Three

Name PA HR R RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG
Chase Headley 557 15 65 63 63 122 11 0.264 0.35 0.419
Ryan Zimmerman 444 16 57 60 45 79 3 0.278 0.353 0.467
Aramis Ramirez 440 17 54 64 32 62 3 0.275 0.335 0.473
Todd Frazier 410 16 46 53 32 94 6 0.247 0.311 0.441
Mark Reynolds 449 23 57 61 58 134 3 0.231 0.338 0.464
Hanley Ramirez 499 16 65 60 47 91 16 0.269 0.343 0.44
Manny Machado 414 10 46 46 29 66 7 0.256 0.311 0.411

Headley, Ramirez, and Zimmerman both have missed significant time, but they’re likely to produce well given relative health from here on out. Zimmerman always seems to play through pain, but he managed to produce a pretty solid season despite needing shoulder surgery for the better part of 2012.  Ramirez owners, you weren’t expecting anything until June out of him anyway, so just keep running Trevor Plouffe or Pedro Alvarez out there for a little while longer.

Frazier and Reynolds have been pleasant surprises and in fact Reynolds has been among the most valuable third basemen in the league with his .295/.360/.625 line and eight home runs. Steamer isn’t so sure the average will continue, and I’d have to agree. He has been striking out less, but his swinging strike rate is still over 14% and his contact rates really haven’t changed at all from the old Mark Reynolds. Sell high.

Frazier is swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone and making better contact than he has in the past but his low line drive rate has contributed to a meager .258 BABIP, which is substantiated by his hit trajectory. He might wind up hitting 30+ home runs, but you’ll probably have to settle for a .240 batting average.

Machado, by virtue of WAR, has been the most valuable third baseman so far this season. He’s doing everything to reach the proverbial ceiling that the scouts described — hitting for power, average, with speed, and plus defense to boot. Dave Cameron made a tantalizing comparison to Miguel Cabrera at the same age. Hold on tightly to this one – he could be top tier in no time.

Tier Four

Name PA HR R RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG
Kyle Seager 508 12 57 56 40 82 8 0.264 0.325 0.411
Mark Trumbo 418 20 52 61 28 98 3 0.262 0.313 0.476
Brett Lawrie 448 13 54 55 32 75 10 0.271 0.328 0.442
Will Middlebrooks 403 17 48 55 22 96 5 0.262 0.306 0.46
Nolan Arenado 497 13 45 61 27 53 1 0.279 0.322 0.429
Mike Moustakas 494 16 56 62 34 80 4 0.257 0.313 0.43
Matt Carpenter 278 5 29 30 29 44 2 0.27 0.352 0.409
Josh Donaldson 331 10 37 39 27 59 5 0.256 0.321 0.426

There’s going to be some debate about this tier, and there ought to be. With the way he’s been hitting, Trumbo frankly belongs in the second tier but his second half swoon is still fresh in my head and I’d like to see more than a month of this version of himself.  Lawrie, Middlebrooks, and Moustakas have all struggled in one form or another. Middlebrooks is filling up the stat sheet in three categories, but killing you in batting average — and looking at his strikeouts and contact rates, that very well could continue. Moustakas has been popping everything up while getting a tad unlucky on balls in play. His strikeouts are down, walks up, and he’s recently started to come around — might be a good buy low candidate. Lawrie perhaps had unrealistic expectations after that rather magical 2011 run. I look at those rest of the season projections and just kind of make a face like I slugged a mouthful of warm, flat beer.

Carpenter and Donaldson have been obviously terrific, but those projections for the rest of the season remind you that they weren’t really supposed to be here. Considering the relative lack of third base talent, you could venture to sell high, but I’m not so sure there would be too many buyers. You’re probably best off riding them until they run out of gas.

Tier Five

Name PA HR R RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG
Martin Prado 551 12 70 56 36 57 7 0.283 0.33 0.425
Kevin Youkilis 346 12 42 43 38 72 1 0.253 0.35 0.442
David Freese 419 12 48 50 38 88 3 0.278 0.35 0.433
Jedd Gyorko 472 12 58 55 37 104 4 0.253 0.311 0.39
Chris Johnson 270 7 28 32 15 64 2 0.268 0.313 0.426
Conor Gillaspie 130 3 14 14 11 19 1 0.262 0.326 0.4
Pedro Alvarez 473 20 54 62 47 137 1 0.239 0.316 0.436
Michael Young 470 9 52 50 31 61 2 0.289 0.336 0.418
Trevor Plouffe 372 14 40 45 28 74 3 0.238 0.303 0.423

Prado probably belongs up in tier four, but you’re likely using him as a second baseman anyway. Youkilis had a nice little run until he reminded us that he’s 80. Freese has been awful. It’s the antithesis of what he did last season where he hit the tar out of the ball in April with five home runs and 20 RBI. His plate discipline actually looks better right now if you can believe it — and if you look at his hit trajectory, you can see why he still lacks a home run. Only 15% of his balls in play are fly balls and he appears to be just driving everything into the turf. This seems unlikely to continue to me, unless he’s hurt and we don’t know it. I’d target him as a buy-low if you’re hurting at third.

Then there’s Chris Johnson and his .352/.374/.500 line. Atlanta looks brilliant for throwing him into the Upton deal. You should throw him into a deal too.

The Rest

Name PA HR R RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG
Lonnie Chisenhall 384 12 41 46 23 68 2 0.253 0.304 0.421
Eric Chavez 170 6 19 22 14 32 1 0.266 0.331 0.448
Luis Valbuena 178 5 18 20 17 34 1 0.245 0.322 0.395
Chris Nelson 266 7 29 32 17 53 2 0.276 0.325 0.437
Yuniesky Betancourt 60 1 6 7 2 7 0.257 0.287 0.397
Jeff Keppinger 441 7 49 43 27 35 2 0.276 0.322 0.387
Matt Dominguez 285 7 29 30 18 35 1 0.254 0.305 0.397
Juan Francisco 234 10 25 31 12 65 1 0.255 0.295 0.449
Jamey Carroll 404 1 41 31 38 54 7 0.275 0.346 0.343
Placido Polanco 311 3 29 26 21 25 1 0.269 0.322 0.349
Adeiny Hechavarria 330 4 27 29 17 56 5 0.247 0.288 0.35
Ian Stewart 267 9 29 32 28 67 3 0.229 0.316 0.411
Alberto Callaspo 321 5 34 32 31 35 3 0.264 0.336 0.379
Ryan Roberts 239 6 25 25 22 46 5 0.237 0.31 0.374
Greg Dobbs 206 4 18 20 12 37 2 0.255 0.301 0.371
Sean Rodriguez 194 5 21 21 16 41 3 0.239 0.313 0.388
Mike Olt 147 5 16 17 15 40 1 0.228 0.309 0.395
Kevin Frandsen 128 1 12 12 5 12 1 0.279 0.32 0.383
Jerry Hairston 188 3 17 19 15 22 2 0.26 0.323 0.375
Luis Cruz 279 5 25 29 10 37 2 0.25 0.282 0.368
Chad Tracy 131 3 13 14 10 24 1 0.25 0.314 0.391
Jose Lopez 136 4 14 16 6 18 1 0.26 0.295 0.41

Probably not fair to have Chisenhall in “the rest” but his season has been just sooooo bad so far and I guess I was perhaps a little too high on him coming into the season. So there’s some personal bias and retribution there — hammer me in the comments all you want. Matt Dominguez is probably the most interesting player listed in there. The projections on Yuni are hilarious — if you trust his April outburst, then you’ve probably never seen him play before. Chris Nelson is now a Yankee, so he’ll probably get plenty of playing time and an honorary degree in Gerontology. Hechavarria is in here almost entirely because someone freaked out that I left him off the preseason list, so — you’re welcome. Ian Stewart might never make it out of AAA. Luis Cruz is a black hole. Jose Lopez has no job but I thought it was funny he had a projection.

Obligatory gif of the longest home run by a third baseman:

trumbo0001





Michael was born in Massachusetts and grew up in the Seattle area but had nothing to do with the Heathcliff Slocumb trade although Boston fans are welcome to thank him. You can find him on twitter at @michaelcbarr.

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Kip
10 years ago

Where does A Rod come into play here – or he doesn’t?

Kip
10 years ago
Reply to  Michael Barr

Happy Friday. Was just wondering and thanks for the reply. I have M. Carpenter as my 3B and picked up Youk just for security (right before he stopped playing) and we know how far that got me…third is so thin this year, I think I have to hold onto Youk (even with only one available DL slot and three guys already on the DL). My team is really good/doing well otherwise, so am I crazy to hold onto Youk? Cheers.