Almost Mid-season Check In: 10 Bold Predictions

I’ve never done a mid-season check in on my bold predictions, but I’ve also never gotten a single one right, so there’s that. Without further self-deprecation, let’s take a look at where I stand on my preseason predictions.

1. Josh Donaldson will score 120 runs (or post 130 RBI)
Originally I had this pegged specifically for 120 runs, but the comment section told me Donaldson would be hitting fifth most of the season, despite my original thoughts. Since I’m a pretty easy going guy, I decided to make this a flexible post and included the 130 RBI possibility. The commenters were correct for the first week, but then after a bit of moving around, Donaldson has settled in at the two hole. At this point the Blue Jays have played 77 games and Donaldson has scored 67 runs and tallied 48 RBIs. Good thing I made this an “or” rather than an “and” post, as I’m about 50 percent confident Donaldson will actually score 120 runs. Given that neither Edwin Encarnacion or Jose Bautista are showing any sign of slowing down at ages 32 and 34 respectively, I’m optimistic I can get this one correct.

2. Jeff Samardzija finishes outside the top-3o of starting pitcher
I failed to specify which type of league this will be, so let’s dive into some of the possibilities. Using standard 5×5 values according to ESPN, the shark currently ranks 91 out of available starting pitchers. In a custom points league I joined with Zach Sanders, Samardzija ranked 45th heading into yesterday’s start. In my home league, a custom 6×6 format, well I won’t even mention his ranking. He’s been on the raw end of a .329 BABIP and his 4.56 ERA come attached to a much better 3.67 FIP. Still, it would take A. a herculean effort in the second half of the season or B. a ton of injuries to pitchers currently ranked ahead of him for Samardzija to crack the top-30. I think I can almost comfortably call this one a win. Of course, with the White Sox struggling, it’s possible he gets traded to a team with a much friendly home park and a better bullpen to preserve wins and wipe out inherited runners for him. Thus the “almost” comfortable part.

3. Jung-ho Kang finishes with more 5×5 value than Xander Bogaerts
Going back to the ESPN rater, Agent X is ranked sixth and Kang is down at 20th at shortstop. Woof. Kang’s power just hasn’t translated the way I imagined it would, and as a result this prediction is all but lost.

4. Wilin Rosario hits 25+ home runs
A strong .313/.328/.493 line aside, Rosario has just five homers in 137 plate appearances this year. His triple slash is largely powered by a .366 BABIP and his walk rate has collapsed. Unless there is a team currently playing on the moon and Rosario gets traded to them, I don’t think there is much to say about this one.

5. Ryan Zimmerman will have a higher 5×5 value than Freddie Freeman
I bought into Zimmerman staying healthier at the less stressful first base position, but that hasn’t happened. Freeman is also on the disabled list, but their hitting has been miles apart. For the laughs, thus far Freeman has been the seventh most valuable first baseman in 5×5 settings. Zimmerman rates as the 43rd best. So, yeah. After starting out (a possibly) 2-for-2, I’ve slumped to 2-for-5. Regression, you are a cruel mistress.

6. Anthony Gose steals 40 bags
Gose has been caught stealing six times.

That’s bad.

He has a total of 17 attempted steals.

That’s good.

He’s attempted just four steals this month.

That’s bad.

The Tigers have the sixth most steals in baseball.

That’s good.

Collectively, they’ve attempted 20 steals in the past 30 days, and have been caught nine times… That’s bad.

Can I go now?

7. Ryan Braun continues to decline; finishes outside the top 60 overall
Looking back, I still don’t think this was an outlandish thought. Braun clearly disagrees, as his power is just fine, despite my thoughts of his thumb injury slowing him down. His 15 home runs have pushed him to being the 38th best player in standard 5×5 leagues, despite his .259 average. At this point he’ll probably mash 30 dingers and get his average up to .280 because I’m not allowed to have nice things.

8. Gerrit Cole is more valuable in 5×5 than Cole Hamels
Another straight forward comparison. Right now G. Cole has been the sixth best starter in the bigs. Hamels hasn’t slouched either, as he rates as the 25th best starter this season. The 11 wins of Cole push him past the modest five wins Hamels has collected, though Cole also has the better K and BB rates. I think this will finish as a win for me.

9. Rick Porcello posts another sub-3.50 ERA season
Alright, move on. Nothing to see here. 

10. Andrew Cashner sets a career high in innings pitched
With 96 innings already banked for my boy Cashner, he only needs another 79 1/3 to make this come true! He’s been snakebit by the home run and a nasty .331 BABIP so far this year, but I think my spirit animal will pull through for me.

If Cashner can stay healthy (don’t laugh) and G. Cole can continue cruising, I might just go 4-for-10 on these this year. My career average would still be 4-for-30, but I have intangibles that don’t show up in the box score, I swear!