Archive for B.J. Upton

Though our tools may not always be at their sharpest, we can still use them in concert to find truth in the fog. Yes, the 2010 projections are not up yet at BaseballMonster, but we have a sweet set here and can use their standard-deviation weighted-category-based rankings to help compare players with different skill sets. Yes, the ADP values on MockDraftCentral are flawed and skewed by their proprietary pre-ranks, but until we have more sources, they’ll have to do (Yahoo ADPs go live February 18).

The flaws of our tools were revealed when we looked at the first couple of center field tiers on Thursday, but the middle tier awaits and we will not be deterred from our goal of finding the strongest values at each position (and yes, we’ll do a post to gather all of these values into one place eventually).

Melvin Bossman Jr Upton is being taken the earliest (59.88), but after reading Dan Budreika’s breakdown of the difficulty of projecting his season (especially his power, in my opinion), I have to think that’s a little early for him. Adam Jones (89.04) comes next, but with most projections having him around 18 and 10 with an okay batting average, that seems a little high for a guy that won’t be a major plus in any category. Andrew McCutchen (91.08) may yet grow into his power, but as Paul Bourdett pointed out here, our perception of the current level of his power might have been skewed by a burst late last year. The fact remains that his minor league ISO was in the .130s, not the .180s like last year. Without plus power, he looks like a Shane Victorino (74.25) who I also believe is going too high (unless he finally steals 40+).

I hate to be so obvious about my man-crushes, but Carlos Gonzalez (124.70) has all the tools to fly past all the center fielders in his tier. We’ve talked extensively about him on the site, but I’ll just add a couple more points. CarGo is in a crowded outfield, yes, but the team hasn’t shown the willingness to make Seth Smith an every-day player, so it really looks like Smith and Dexter Fowler are the ones battling for playing time. CarGo played almost every day down the stretch down last year and I expect that to continue. Second, it makes me drool when a toolsy former top prospect makes good on his tools by improving his walk rate, strikeout rate, reach rates and contact rates across the board, while also returning his ISO to his minor league days of promise. The stars are aligned for CarGo to Go CarGo.

The speed-only tier creates a trio of players that are seemingly projected (by CHONE) to be virtually the same players next year:

Player A: .268, 4 home runs, 37 steals
Player B: .281, 3 home runs, 29 steals
Player C: .270, 4 home runs, 31 steals

What if I added that Player B actually stole 42 bases last year with a 71% success rate? Well, then you’d probably want him, wouldn’t you? Congratulations, you just bought Nyjer Morgan at bargain-basement prices (130.21 ADP). He would almsot certainly make a better value than Michael Bourn (72.45 ADP), and should sport a better batting average (and more guaranteed playing time) than Rajai Davis (171.44 ADP) in that crowded house that is the Oakland outfield.

We may have to go to a part three here to discuss the fantasy fault line (thanks to reader Johnny Tuttle for that wording, which may become a feature here shortly) between Shane Victorino and Denard Span.

Two years ago it seemed as if B.J. Upton was on top of the world. He had just concluded his first full season in the big leagues at age 22 and he posted a .387 wOBA in 129 games. Then the Devil Rays became the Rays and Upton hasn’t been the same since.

Upton didn’t match his 2007 performance in 2008 but he clubbed seven homers in October to help Tampa Bay reach the world series. He experienced some shoulder woes that year and had surgery after the Rays were defeated by the Phillies in the series.

The stage was set last year for Upton to put together a huge season but the exact opposite happened. He missed the first week of the season and the left shoulder that he had operated on in the off season never regained full strength. This all amounted to an extremely frustrating season for Upton as he wrapped up the year with a paltry .310 wOBA over 560 at-bats. His .241/.313/.373 triple-slash was very underwhelming.

Upton has regressed over each of the past three seasons at the plate. Below is his wRC+ trend line over the past three seasons:

wRC+
2007: 139
2008: 119
2009: 89

That’s a consistent and scary trend. Upton’s production has decreased heavily from each season to the next since 2007 and it’s extremely unlikely that he continues such a dreadful trend in 2010.

Luckily for the Rays his plus defense still makes him a valuable player but if he could ever rediscover his stroke at the plate then he would be an extremely valuable player again.

Upton’s entering his 25-year-old season and there is much reason for optimism. A strong and healthy left shoulder should be helpful but there’s also some interesting and telling information that lays in the data. Upton will always strike out at a healthy clip but his career-low 9% walk rate is a point of concern. He walked at higher rates over the prior two seasons.

Upton’s BABIP cratered to .312 last season. Where is his true talent level? That’s hard to tell from his varying samples over the past three seasons. But the helpful BABIP calculator from the Hardball Times tells us another story. Here are his xBABIPs over the past three seasons according to the calculator:

2007: xBABIP- .338. Actual- .399. Difference- +61
2008: xBABIP- .353. Actual- .351. Difference- -2
2009: xBABIP- .338. Actual- .312. Difference- +26

The calculator cuts down on Upton’s BABIP spread over the past three years. The range of his xBABIPs is 15 while the range of his actual BABIPs is 87. There’s no doubt his 2007 BABIP padded his numbers and it set the performance bar pretty high for him at the time.

Despite the exact same (.338) xBABIPs in 2007 and 2009, Upton, hit the ball with much more authority in 2007. He slugged 24 homers in 2007 compared to just 11 last year and he had a career-low 15.4% line drive rate in 2009. His line drive rate was 19.6% in 2007. He also hit a career-high 13 pop ups last season.

All of Upton’s varying and perplexing batting lines can’t be chalked up to just lucky or unlucky BABIP variations. While it played a role there are reasons for such drastic performances and they cannot be easily explained. We may have a true conundrum on our hands and more data will be essential in determining who the real B.J. Upton is. These varying performances do suggest that his bum shoulder really could have played a big role in his lackluster production.

We do know from our nifty run values that Upton battered and bruised fastballs during his banner 2007 campaign. He’s never hit them so well ever since and this does help explain his performance dip. Perhaps that shoulder could have plagued him when he tried to get around on fastballs?

Upton also has funky O-Contact percentages over the past three seasons similar to his varying BABIPs. He’s made contact at a very below-average rate (except for 2008) when he offers at pitches outside of the strike zone. He was actually above-average in 2008 when he had a solid campaign at the plate.

Finally, what can we expect from Upton going forward? It’s hard to exactly say what Upton will do in 2010. He’s always had the ability, athleticism, and a mouth watering set of tools. Some scouts may not be surprised if he unleashes an MVP like season now that he’s in good health.

I think Upton’s 2008 season (.273/.383/.401) would be a nice modest projection (minus some OBP) for Upton and many of the projection systems here at Fangraphs have him projected in that area. It’s playing it safe but his BABIP should recover and that would push him closer to his 2008 totals.

Upton’s a toolsy player and he should be entering his prime. Barring health I’d expect the power to play and it’s fair to project him to drop around 20 homers next year. The 100 Fan Projections currently available have nailed The Upton Case right on the button. The Fans have him at .273/.363/.442 with 40+ stolen bases and I think that’s a very fair and accurate projection.

If you can grab Upton in the middle rounds of your draft then he would be a steal. But don’t be afraid to pop him a bit sooner than that. He’s ready to put that nightmarish 2009 to rest.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen, first basemen, third basemen, right fielders and left fielders.)

These rankings are for 5×5 rotisserie fantasy baseball. Eligibility was determined by where the player had the most at-bats last year.

There might be some grumblings about putting Matt Kemp into a tier of his own. The fact is, he’s the closest to .300 30/30 out there and that means something. Even with the eventual bounce back that both Grady Sizemore (.276 BABIP in 09, .308 xBABIP in 09, .317 career BABIP) and Curtis Granderson (.276 BABIP in 09, .301 xBABIP in 09, .323 career BABIP) will be getting in the average department, they both should fall short of those hallowed numbers. Kemp just needs a few more fly balls to leave the yard, and with his increasing fly ball totals and HR/FB ratios, it doesn’t take much squinting to get him there.

Carlos Beltran doesn’t quite have the speed to join the top tier, but injury concerns aside, he’s pretty much the definition of the second tier. Before last year, he’d cleared 600 plate appearances for eight straight years, so he’s a decent bet as a value pick once the first two rounds are complete. Jacoby Ellsbury is in the news a lot these days, has more speed than anyone on the list, but also has very little power and may be destined for a new position. You could pick him if you are getting plus power from a position on the infield, though, and not miss a beat.

Josh Hamilton’s position in the tier may be the most tenuous. The injury concerns are real (469 average PAs over the last three years), and speed is probably not part of the package any more (20 stolen bases and 7 caught stealings career). I would definitely be tempted to wait on him and pick the surging Carlos Gonzalez instead. CarGo rode a .320/.384/.608 second half (with 12 home runs and 11 stolen bases) into our collective consciousness. One of the main reasons for his effectiveness was that he cut down his strikeouts (23.2% in second half, 26% career), and we know he has the tools to continue producing should the refined approach continue. Bucs wunderkind Andrew McCutchen and O’s rising star Adam Jones help fill the Upside Tier, a trough that many knowledgeable readers will be dipping into next year. With Jones’ tiny walk rate (5.6% career) I just see a little more risk there. We’ve written extensively on B.J. Upton, who may yet have books written about him. Suffice it to say that his oscillating power (ISOs ranging from .046 to .209) and BABIPs (.312 to .399) make him risky.

The next tier we might as well call the “No-Power-All-Speed” tier. With his terrible 2008, of course there’s a reason to doubt Michael Bourn, but his walk rate, BABIP and line drive percentage all finally approached his minor league rates. He might have just found himself on the major league level finally, and he looks to have the best speed of this bunch. Otherwise, there’s not really much difference between Bourn, Nyjer Morgan and Rajai Davis. Take your pick.

The last tier is looking for redemption in some cases. Shane Victorino is being grounded slightly by his splits (.749 career OPS vs righties) but also by rumors that Placido Polanco will take his position in the lineup for reasons unclear. He still could provide tremendous value if he gets drafted at this tier position. It’s unclear why he stole fewer bases as his success rate (79.6%) and speed score (7.5) are still elite. Torii Hunter will get some love in the comments, perhaps, but his BABIP was at a nine-year high last year, and if his average drops, his 20/20 prowess looks a little less sexy. If batting average is not a concern, he’s a decent pickup late in the game. Vernon Wells just needs more space than we have here.

This position was deeper than I expected. Young players like Colby Rasmus, Dexter Fowler, and Franklin Gutierrez could all join the big boys with some steps forward in their games. All of them already make decent bench picks even in mixed leagues.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Since it is turkey day, I figured I’d give thanks to things throughout the fantasy world from last season and the upcoming one.

I’m thankful for…Brandon Webb getting hurt last year. Even though it ruined one of my teams, he will slip past his healthy value allowing owners to snatch him up and hope he’s healthy.

I’m thankful for…Victor Martinez being traded to the Red Sox. With a good lineup around him, it’s hard to imagine the RBI numbers that might show up in the box score next season. If they can add a decent hitting corner infielder, it will be even better.

I’m thankful for…Russell Branyan’s back issues. It may seem cruel that I’m happy about players are getting hurt, but it’s hard not to be. His back slowed him for a couple months, bringing his total numbers down and forcing owners to forget about his hot start a bit. While he won’t be a sleeper again, he may go a round or two later than he should.

I’m thankful for…Luke Scott. Scott’s power streak after coming off of an injury carried my team for a couple weeks. Not bad for a waiver wire pickup.

I’m thankful for…Ryan Franklin’s beard, and saves. Owners will ignore the fluky BABIP and lack of K’s and draft him far too early next year. I’m staying away, thank you very much (see what I did there?).

I’m thankful for…B.J. Upton’s bad 2009. He won’t hit .241 again, I promise. Because he still stole 42 bases, he won’t have sleeper status, but he will be undervalued.

I’m thankful for…Nick Johnson’s healthy ’09. I had Johnson in an OBP league, hoping he’d stay healthy and for once he did. Interested to see where he lands in free agency.

I’m thankful for…Mark Reynolds‘ low batting average. Someone is going to say “no thanks” when they glance at his .260 avg, but I’m more than happy with 40+ jacks and 20+ steals from my third baseman.

I’m thankful for…Curtis Granderson’s struggles against southpaws. Like Reynolds, Grandy’s .249 avg is going to scare other owners off. Dig deeper, and you’ll see he hit .275/.358/.539 with 28 of his 30 homers against right handers. If you’re smart enough to check your matchups and only play Grandy versus righties, he’s extremely valuable.

All that being said, what are you thankful for?

Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the Tampa Bay Rays organization that finished third in the American League East division with a record of 84-78. As a team, the Rays posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) on offense of 1.38. The team’s pitching WPA score was 1.62.

The Good: Carl Crawford, OF
The 28-year-old Crawford had a bounce back season in ’09, much to the joy of fantasy owners. After stealing just 25 bases in an injury-filled ’08 season, the speedy player reached a career high this past season with 60 (in 76 attempts). Crawford also set a career mark with a walk rate of 7.8% and with any luck it will continue to climb in ’10 if he is in fact maturing as a hitter. It was a bit of a disappointment that Crawford fell short of the 100 run target, but a bounce back season from B.J. Upton could help, as well as continued production from Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena.

Crawford probably won’t reach 60 steals again, but 40-50 would be a reasonable goal, as he’s surpassed the 50 mark in five of his seven full seasons. As it was, Crawford was a Top 10 hitter in most leagues in ’09 and there are not many players out there that are as diverse as Crawford: .280-.300 average, 15+ homers, 40-50 steals and 90-100 runs scored. He really only disappoints on driving in runs.

The Bad: B.J. Upton, OF
Inconsistent and frustrating. Those are two words that sum up Upton. In 2007, at the age of 22, he appeared to be on the cusp of fantasy greatness as the former infielder posted a line of .300/.386/.508 with 24 homers and 22 steals in just 474 at-bats. Unfortunately, his OPS of .894 dropped to .784 in ’08 and down to .686 in ’09. His home run totals have fluctuated from 24 to nine to 11. The only positive side, from a fantasy perspective, is that he’s provided 40+ steals in each of the past two seasons.

Upton will no doubt enter 2010 as a mid-level draftee in most fantasy formats. You can certainly gain value from his 40+ steals but he could very well do damage in the batting average category. His overall value with the bat has diminished significantly over the past two seasons. Upton may be in need of a scenery change, and the club just might accommodate him this winter. He remains a sleeper talent. At 25 years of age, he has yet to enter his prime as a hitter so he could explode any moment. The only thing that’s clear at this point, though, is that if you’re going Upton early in your draft… go Justin. Just don’t dismiss B.J. quite yet.

Since the Tampa Bay (then Devil) Rays selected him with the second overall pick in the 2002 amateur draft, B.J. Upton has displayed every ingredient necessary to become a five-tool superstar at the major league level.

The 25 year-old has shown excellent plate discipline (12.1 BB% in 2007, 15.4% in 2008). Upton has unleashed feats of strength that belie his lithe 6-3, 185 pound frame, including 24 home runs in 2007 and a 2008 post season (7 HR, .652 SLG%) that appeared to solidify his status as a star. He swiped in excess of 40 bases in 2008, and has a chance at doing so again this season. You name a skill, and B.J. has shown it at one point or another.

Defensively, Upton has acclimated himself very well to center field (11.2 UZR/150 in ’09, nearly identical to his work in ’08). That range has helped keep him a viable starter (1.9 WAR). But why is it that, as the 2009 season comes to a close, B.J. has been one of the worst hitters in baseball?

In 2007 and 2008, Upton posted wOBA’s of .387 and .354, respectively. This year, that mark has plummeted to just .298. Among batters taking at least 500 trips to the plate, Upton has the fourth-worst wOBA in the game. Only light-swinging middle infielders Edgar Renteria, David Eckstein and Orlando Cabrera have provided less value with the lumber. Per Batting Runs (a park-adjusted measure of offensive production), Upton has gone from +27.2 runs above average in 2007 and +15.3 in ’08 to a wheezing -13.2 in 2009.

While he won’t be confused with Jeff Francoeur any time soon, Upton has been less patient at the plate. His walk rate has dipped to nine percent, down considerably from the aforementioned marks in ’07 and ’08.

Upton swung at roughly 17 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone between 2007 and 2008. That figure is up a bit, to slightly over 19 percent this season (still well below the 25% MLB average). Upton is also offering at fewer pitches within the strike zone as well, taking a cut at roughly 66 percent of in-zone offerings from 2007-2008 and about 64 percent in 2009 (66% MLB average). There’s nothing overly alarming about these trends, but chasing more balls and taking more strikes is never a happy development.

From a batted-ball standpoint, Upton’s rate of line drives hit is down considerably. It’s important to keep in mind that the line drive/fly ball distinction is a subjective one made by the official scorer (and the rate at which liners are coded varies greatly by stadium). That being said, B.J.’s liner rate has fallen from over 19 percent from 2007-2008 to 14.1 percent in 2009. Again using a 500 PA cut off, Upton has the lowest LD% among all batters.

Where have those liners gone? Upton has greatly increased his rate of fly balls hit. B.J. hit a fly ball 37.6% of the time in 2007 and 30.6% in 2008, but that figure is up to 41.2% this year. While fly balls have a lower batting average on balls in play than grounders, lofting the ball into the air is obviously a positive trend in terms of hitting for power (fly balls hit in the A.L. in 2009 have a .603 slugging percentage).

Well, hitting more fly balls is usually a positive trend. Upton just hasn’t done much with those fly balls this season. His home run/fly ball rate, 19.8% in ’07 and 7.4% in ’08, is just 6.7% in 2009. That puts B.J. in the same company as Andy LaRoche and Vernon Wells. Upton slugged .952 on fly balls hit in 2007 and .534 in 2008. In 2009? He’s slugging just .396.

When Upton has taken a pitcher deep, he’s not clearing the fence by much, either. Courtesy of Greg Rybarczyk’s Hit Tracker Online, we can see that B.J.’s homers don’t pack as much punch.

Hit Tracker records, among other things, the “Standard Distance” of a home run. This essentially tells us how far the ball would have traveled if it had been hit with no wind, at a 70 degree temperature and at sea level. By factoring out wind, temperature and altitude, Standard Distance attempts to put HR distance on equal footing across stadiums. Here are Upton’s Standard Distances over the past three years:

2007: 394.7
2008: 406.7
2009: 387.5

(The A.L. average Standard Distance in 2009 is 394.7)

In terms of pitch selection, B.J. has scuffled against every type except curveballs. Upton has never had much problem with yellow hammers (+1.18 runs/100 pitches in 2009, +1.15 career). Sliders continue to stifle him, however (-1.8 runs/100 in ’09, -0.67 career). And, his performance versus changeups has taken several steps back (-0.92 runs/100, +0.82 career). Upton’s fall against fastballs has been quite dramatic:

Runs/100 value vs. fastballs, 2007-2009

2007: +1.87
2008: +0.02
2009: -0.24

Overall, Upton has been somewhat unlucky this season. Using this expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times (which takes a hitter’s AB’s, HR, K’s, SB, LD%, fly balls, pop ups and grounders to give a more accurate measure of XBABIP), B.J.’s XBABIP is .331, compared to his actual .304 mark. Even if all of those extra hits were singles, that would bring his line up from .231/.301/.359 to .258/.328/.386.

Still, that’s a far cry from what many had predicted, myself included. I’m left wondering if Upton has ever been truly healthy in 2009. He was hampered by a sore ankle earlier this month. And, more importantly, Upton openly admits that the off-season shoulder surgery which sidelined him in spring training and early April remains an issue.

Upton’s 2009 campaign has surely been a bitter pill to swallow for owners who expended a high draft pick on him. However, it’s not time to abandon ship. Despite the aggravating season, B.J. is just 25 years old and has already achieved a high degree of success in the big leagues. Given an off-season to mend his aching body, Upton could be a relative bargain in 2010. It would be a shame if such a talent continued to be held back by physical ailments.

As keeper league decisions loom, many fantasy managers are looking at certain struggling young stars and wondering where all the buzz went. No young star has had a more tortured young history then B.J. Upton (né Melvin Emanuel Bossman Junior Upton). What can we expect from a young man that has shown flashes of great potential and long stretches of mediocrity? Does he, in the Ron Shandler vein, “own” the power and the speed because he’s shown both in the past? Or will he be more one-dimensional as his career evens out?

His power has oscillated incredibly. Here are his full year slugging percentages, starting with his first year in the minor leagues: .431 (’03 minors), .505 (’04 minors), .490 (’05 minors), .394 (06 minors), .291 (’06 majors), .508 (’07 majors), .401 (’08 majors), .364 (’09 majors). Quite the dilemma. It’s tempting to call 2007 his fluke year, but then there’s the question of the 2008 playoffs, and his 2004-2005 run in the minor leagues. He has shown good power multiple times in the past.

Examining 2007 further, we find that he had a HR/FB number that year (19.8%) that was way out of line with his career percentage (10.4%). This year, despite a career high in fly ball percentage (41.4%, well above his 34.7% career percentage), he’s sporting his second-lowest slugging percentage and has only muscled nine balls out of the yard despite being healthy for a good part of the year.

An obvious flaw in the older Upton’s game is his ability to hit line drives. His career line drive percentage is poor (17.5%), and this year’s number is third-worst among qualifiers this year. In 2007, he owned a career-high in that category (19.8%), and looking over his minor league career, we can see that the low line-drive rate is a definite part of his game.

What we are left with is a player that has some exciting tools (speed, and the ability to get on base (11.6% walk rate career)) and some real flaws (low line drive rate, high strikeout rate (28.2% career)). This gives us a player that despite a good BABIP (.348 career, most probably built on his speed) has a poor batting average (.266 career).

Looking for a comparable player is not easy, but one name comes to mind. Hunter Pence is a year older, and his power has not varied as greatly as Upton’s. Pence does also package a low line drive percentage (15.8% career) with good speed (5.2 speed score, .325 BABIP) and some power. On the other hand, his HR/FB stayed steady throughout his short career at a higher level than Upton’s has. What we can learn from Pence, possibly, is that Upton’s ceiling may not be defined by his best year. 2007 was a great year for both players, and both players will probably never again show the pristine batting averages they sported that year.

As for the Bossman’s power, we are left guessing. It’s never a good sign when a player has such extreme power spikes. Consider that he had more home runs in 2007 (24) than he’s had in the other 1,548 non-2007 plate appearances (23). Power is his shakiest tool, and depending on it returning in the future is not recommended.

Stock Up

Andrew McCutchen, Pirates

Ever hear the old adage that even a blind squirrel finds the occasional nut? Well, McCutchen is the legume uncovered during the otherwise comedic/tragic tenure of former Pirates GM Dave Littlefield. The 11th overall selection in a stunningly deep 2005 draft class, McCutchen has hit the ground running in the majors. He’s batting .293/.362/.500 in 337 PA, showing power (.207 ISO, 10 HR) that belies his 5-11, 170 pound frame and well surpasses his minor league dossier.

The 22 year-old is working the count rather well (9.6 BB%, 18 K%), chasing 21.6% of pitches out of the strike zone (25.1% MLB avg). McCutchen has also been a smart, efficient base thief, with 15 swipes in 18 attempts (83.3% success rate). Couple the quality bat and high-percentage running with ample range in center field (+10.4 UZR/150), and you have a franchise pillar who has racked up 3.2 WAR since his early June call-up.

Ervin Santana, Angels

Is Santana turning his season around? There’s reason to believe so. Not that Ervin has been his dominant 2008 self this month, but he has allowed 12 runs in 33 August frames, holding opponents to a .250/.338/.408 line. Santana’s ’09 campaign has been plagued by injuries (a partially torn UCL and a forearm strain) and a consequent loss in velocity (after firing 94.4 MPH bullets and 84 MPH sliders in ’08, Santana’s overall fastball velocity sits at 91.8 MPH in ’09, with an 82 MPH slider).

However, his stuff does seem to be trending up as of late. His average fastball velocity is up to 92.3 MPH in August, and the pitch has been moderately effective after a disastrous showing earlier:

Santana’s Runs/100 pitches value with his fastball, by month:

May: -4.49
June: +1.12
July: -2.59
August: -0.13

(note: these linear run values are dependent on things like BABIP and HR/FB rate. In the case of a guy like Santana, his BABIP was in excess of .350 during the first three months, meaning those numbers shouldn’t like quite as bad as they do).

John Smoltz, Cardinals

Smoltz’s good processes and awful results with the Red Sox spurred countless discussions on just how we can more properly evaluate pitching performance.

The easy, lazy narrative on Smoltz following his run of drubbings with Boston was, “he’s old, injured and washed up.” But his underlying numbers suggested that he was still capable of performing at the highest level.

Latching on with St. Louis, Smoltz has made two excellent starts to begin his Red Bird career (a combined 11 IP, 15 K, 1 BB and 1 R vs. San Diego and Washington). While clearly promising, Smoltz’s two dominant outings don’t declare “he’s back” any more than his brutal Boston stint announced “he’s done.”

I’m obviously in the more optimistic camp when it comes to Smoltz’s future, but declaring “I told you so” after two starts would be even more foolish than coming to the conclusion that he was washed up following his Boston tenure. In other words, it’s just best to avoid knee-jerk reactions based on a small smattering of playing time.

Barry Zito, Giants

By this point, saying that the immense financial commitment that the Giants made to Barry Zito through at least 2013 was unwise is like beating a dead horse. Frankly, it’s more like beating glue. But, the calls for the club to outright release the left-hander are hyperbolic to the highest degree. That Reign of Terror-like bloodlust (“off with his head!”) might make for headline-generating copy, but it would also be a terrible financial decision.

Zito isn’t worth nearly $20M per season; we get it. But that doesn’t mean he’s worthless, either. In 2009, Barry has posted his lowest FIP (4.20) since 2003, with his highest K rate (6.93) since ’02 and his lowest walk rate (3.49) since ’04. His vaunted curveball (+2.49 runs/100 pitches thrown) is in the black run-wise for the first time since 2005, and Zito’s slider (+2.24 runs/100) is also getting the job done.

Overall, Zito has been worth 2.2 WAR, which equates to about $9.8M worth of value. Yes, that falls well short of how the Giants are compensating him. But severing ties for the mere sake of satiating the scribes would be like cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Rajai Davis, Athletics

A 28 year-old speedster originally drafted by the Pirates, Davis has gone from DFA’d Giant during the spring to everyday center fielder for the A’s. A plus defender and an adept base stealer (29 for 37 in ’09), Rajai could be a viable starter if he can avoid stinking up the joint at the plate.

While Davis’ gifts afield and on the bases are apparent, we don’t exactly know what to expect from an offensive standpoint. He was relatively patient in a productive 2007 season (10 BB%, 19.4 O-Swing%), an unabashed hacker in a letdown 2008 campaign (3.6 BB%, 36.2 O-Swing%), and he has essentially split the difference in 2009 (7.8 BB%, 30.9 O-Swing%). If Davis can work the count and get on base at a reasonable clip, he’s a perfectly acceptable regular and a person of interest in fantasy circles. If he reverts to chasing off the plate and in the dirt, he’s Willy Taveras.

Stock Down

Johan Santana, Mets

At this pace, Mr. Met will be inserted into the New York lineup by mid-September. Santana is just the latest in a staggeringly long line of Mets casualties, as he’s done for the season following arthroscopic surgery to remove bone spurs from his left elbow.

Something was clearly amiss with the ace southpaw, as his K rate plummeted after a dominant April and May and his fastball velocity dipped into the 80’s (89.5 MPH in August). What’s Nelson Figueroa’s WAMM (Wins Above Mr. Met)?

Hank Blalock, Rangers

The 28 year-old Blalock once looked like a building-block player for the Rangers (he posted 5.3 WAR in 2003 and 4.4 WAR in 2004). Since then, not-so-hammerin’ Hank has compiled 2.5 WAR. Combined. Injuries have assuredly played a part, but Blalock’s plate patience has progressively eroded:

2007: 9.2 BB%
2008: 6.9 BB%
2009: 4.7 BB%

Hank’s wOBA has dipped from .383 in ’07 to .317 this year. And now, he’ll grab some pine as Chris Davis gets another chance to, well, stop hitting like Blalock.

Bobby Parnell, Mets

Forced into the depleted Queens rotation, Parnell has been hammered for 24 runs in 21 innings as a starter. The 6-4, 200 pound righty (a 9th-round selection out of Charleston Southern in 2005) boasts a low-to-mid-90’s heater with good movement out of the ‘pen, but middling control and questionable secondary offerings call into question his viability as a starter. There’s certainly no harm in trying to figure out if the soon-to-be 25 year-old can handle lineups multiple times (all but two of his appearances in the minors came as a starter), but he appears to be Mike Pelfrey, with worse control.

B.J. Upton, Rays

Let me preface this by saying that I remain a big believer in Upton. The 2nd overall pick in the ’02 draft just turned 25. And at one point or another, B.J. has shown every skill required of a superstar player. He has popped extra base hits (.209 ISO in ’07), has generally worked the count very well (11.7 BB% career), can swipe plenty of bags (he’s on pace for over 40 this year) and has acclimated himself to center field after his nomadic “shortstop, no second baseman, no third baseman” experience.

With strong D, Upton has still been a valuable contributor this season (2.1 WAR). But from a fantasy standpoint, he has been a disappointment. B.J.’s walk rate is down to 9.5% after a career-best 15.4% in ’08. Upton’s relative power outage in 2008 (.128 ISO) was largely attributed to a shoulder injury that required off-season surgery and sidelined him early in ’09, but his ISO this year (.129) hasn’t climbed. His first-pitch strike%, just 55.2% in 2008, is up to 62.1% in 2009 (58.2% MLB average).

The overall package of tools remains tantalizing, and Upton’s down 2009 could actually present an opportunity to buy low in 2010. But, owners who invested a high draft pick back in March are surely bummed out.

Aaron Harang, Reds

Harang’s 2009 season is over, following an emergency appendectomy. And with that, three-fifths of Cincy’s rotation (Cueto, Volquez and Harang) has hit the shelf during the summer.

The popular narrative for Harang cites the massive change in his won-loss record from 2007 (16-6) to 2009 (6-14). Oh, how the mighty have fallen. But how much has Harang really declined? Not that much, when viewed through the scope of Expected Fielding Independent ERA:

2006: 3.89 XFIP
2007: 3.81 XFIP
2008: 4.39 XFIP
2009: 4.00 XFIP

As a fly ball-centric pitcher in a ballpark that inflates home run production considerably, Harang and Great American Ballpark go together like peanut butter and tooth paste. But he’s still largely the same guy who performed so admirably from 2005-2007.

Hopefully you were able to pick up Matt Holliday and trade Russell Branyan last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Jermaine Dye – He is striking out more than he ever has and his AVG is a disappointing .270 so far. His fantasy value is being propped up by HR but he has a 25 percent HR/FB rate. These are reasons why his current owner might trade him. But Dye has just a .243 AVG at home, thanks to a .234 BABIP at U.S. Cellular. He’s batted over .300 at home two of the last three seasons and has never had an AVG that low in his previous four years in Chicago. Dye is also uncharacteristically struggling versus LHP, against whom he has just a .152 AVG. Lifetime he is a .284 hitter versus southpaws. Even with a regression in HR, the updated ZiPS projects him to hit 24 the rest of the season and finish with 36 HR, which exceeds all of the pre-season projections.

David Aardsma – Since Brandon Morrow blew back-to-back saves on May 13-14, Aardsma has three saves and Morrow has none. Additionally, Morrow has pitched multiple innings in the sixth and seventh in his last three outings. Walks have always been a major issue for Aardsma and this year is no different. But this is a guy who is at the very least in the running for saves and is available on the waiver wire in over half of ESPN leagues.

Aubrey Huff – The updated ZiPS forecast shows Huff finishing below last year’s output in every fantasy category. But Huff is also a notoriously slow starter. At this point last year, Huff was batting .240-6-24 and he finished .304-32-108. It’s almost impossible to predict the finish that Huff enjoyed last season, but since he’s starting from a higher baseline, he doesn’t have quite so far to go. Huff already has a nice .209 ISO and his BB/K numbers are better than a year ago. He currently has a .277 BABIP, 20 points below his lifetime mark and 42 points below what he hit last year.

Joe Saunders – There is not one advanced metric that suggests you should pick him up. But at some point we have to stop looking at what we think he should do and instead look at what he has done. Saunders has a lifetime .691 winning percentage with a sub-four ERA in 73 games. The updated ZiPS forecast is not pretty; it shows him going 9-9 with a 4.40 ERA from here on out. That’s slightly more pessimistic than the pre-season projections forecasted for him. If you can acquire him for the price of his expected ZiPS for the remainder of 2009, I like Saunders’ chances of beating that projection.

Coco Crisp – His .751 OPS is identical to what it was a year ago. But in 2009, Crisp is achieving that with a .250 BABIP compared to a .322 mark last season. He may not crack double-digits in HR this season, but it would not be a surprise to see him bat .300 with 20 SB the rest of the way.

Trade

Jason Bartlett – At some point fantasy owners will start to take Bartlett seriously. Currently, his .373-7-30-32-14 line makes him the third-best fantasy player overall according to CBS Sports. The key for Bartlett owners is to find the moment when other owners feel enough time has elapsed to make him a serious acquisition target. Some owners may never consider Bartlett a trade target. That’s okay. The updated ZiPS shows him compiling a .293-5-36-52-15 line from here on out. Yes, a huge decline from where he is now, but still a valuable fantasy SS that could help most clubs. Bartlett owners have already “won” with his production until now. If they can get equivalent value for Bartlett’s RoS ZiPS at a position of need, that should be a win-win deal for both sides.

Zach Duke – He should be an attractive target for clubs that need pitching with his 2.60 K/BB ratio and 3.56 FIP. But Duke has a .261 BABIP and a 5.9 percent HR/FB ratio. Linear Weights shows his fastball turning from an awful pitch the last three seasons to one that is neutral despite having no increase in velocity. His RoS ZiPS shows him with an ERA of 5.24 and a 5-10 record.

B.J. Upton – The time to get a good return on Upton has come and gone. Now we are left with trying to salvage something for the rest of the year. He is striking out at an alarming rate (31.5%) and hitting for no power (.097 ISO). RoS ZiPS sees him hitting .257 with 11 HR. It is possible his trade value still exceeds that meager production.

Johnny Cueto – Everyone expected Cueto to improve upon last year’s numbers, although not many predicted what he’s produced so far in 2009. But Cueto’s lofty numbers carry several warning signs. His 3.64 FIP is well above his 2.37 ERA. Cueto has benefited from an 83.1 percent strand rate and a .253 BABIP. His K/9 is down 1.2 from a season ago and his HR/9 is less than half of what it was in 2008.

Michael Bourn – A one-category performer (SB), Bourn has actually been a plus in three categories so far, adding runs and AVG to his ledger. But the .366 BABIP won’t last and you should actively shop him to someone looking to make up ground in SB.

As an ardent Pittsburgh Pirates fan, I have to admit that discussing B.J. Upton is something of an exercise in masochism. A wonderfully talented player, Upton nonetheless is a constant, sharp, prodding reminder of years of aimless drafting by the Bucs, motivated by frugality more than future upside. Add in the fact that Bryan Bullington (the Pirates’ ill-fated, 1st overall selection) is now in his third organization and a cornucopia of other ’02 first-rounders have borne fruit for their respective teams, and it’s enough to send this writer curling up into a ball playing Sister Sledge’s “We Are Family” until the unpleasant memories subside.

But enough of that. Today, I come to discuss Upton’s seemingly unlimited variety of skills. Expectations have certainly been high for the Norfolk, Virginia native ever since the Rays gladly snatched him up with the 2nd overall pick after the Pirates shot themselves in the foot, and Upton has more than held his own to this point. A career .277/.367/.426 hitter who made his debut in 2004, Upton is still just 24 years of age. He has displayed every tool that you could possibly desire in a major league player at some point during his time with the Rays. Let’s take a look at Upton’s multi-faceted game…

Plate Discipline: Upton has displayed an extremely selective eye for such a young player, drawing walks at a 12.4% clip during the course of his career. He posted the best walk rate of his career in 2008 (15.4%), and swung at just 15% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. That figure tied Cardinals third baseman Troy Glaus for the lowest mark among all qualified batters. With such a judicious approach, Upton fell behind 0-and-1 in the count or put the ball in play on the first pitch rarely, with a first-pitch strike percentage (F-Strike%) of 55.2%.

Power: Sure, Upton’s power output in ’08 was not extraordinary (.401 SLG%, .128 ISO), but the man was playing with a torn labrum in his left shoulder that sapped his pop for most of the year. Improved health during the postseason brought with it a surge in power, as Upton crushed nearly as many long balls (seven) in the playoffs as he did during the regular season (nine). B.J. slugged .508 with a .209 ISO in 2007, showing that he can hammer the ball as well as work the count.

Speed: While Upton’s shoulder precluded him from jogging around the bases with regularity, there was nothing wrong with his legs in 2008. The 6-3, 185 pounder swiped 44 bags, doubling his 2007 total. He could stand to be a little more selective (he got caught 16 times for a 73.3% success rate), but his base thievery still resulted in a positive 3.6 run contribution for the Rays (.22 for a SB, -.38 for a CS).

Contact Ability: This one is a little trickier to predict. Upton’s contact rate rose from 72.8% in 2007 to 80.5% this past season, and consequently his K rate dipped from 32.5% to 25.2%. We know that his power was down during the regular season. Did Upton, perhaps aware that he wasn’t as likely to slam a pitch over the fence, cut down on his swing in an effort to make more contact? And will those contact gains fade as he shows more extra-base pop and presumably swings for the bleachers with more frequency?

You name the skill, and Upton has shown it as some point during his big league tenure. Via Baseball-Reference, I found a very intriguing name among Upton’s most comparable players through age 23: Carlos Beltran.

Like Upton, Beltran is a center fielder who comes equipped with a tool set that would make Home Depot swoon: a very selective eye, solid power and excellent speed. It remains to be seen whether or not Upton’s raw athleticism will translate as well afield as it has for Beltran (per UZR, Upton was 4.6 runs above average in ’08), but the offensive comparison appears apt. Still a very young man and brimming with ability, Upton has future MVP written all over him.