The Good and The Bad of ’09: Tampa Bay

Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the Tampa Bay Rays organization that finished third in the American League East division with a record of 84-78. As a team, the Rays posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) on offense of 1.38. The team’s pitching WPA score was 1.62.

The Good: Carl Crawford, OF
The 28-year-old Crawford had a bounce back season in ’09, much to the joy of fantasy owners. After stealing just 25 bases in an injury-filled ’08 season, the speedy player reached a career high this past season with 60 (in 76 attempts). Crawford also set a career mark with a walk rate of 7.8% and with any luck it will continue to climb in ’10 if he is in fact maturing as a hitter. It was a bit of a disappointment that Crawford fell short of the 100 run target, but a bounce back season from B.J. Upton could help, as well as continued production from Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena.

Crawford probably won’t reach 60 steals again, but 40-50 would be a reasonable goal, as he’s surpassed the 50 mark in five of his seven full seasons. As it was, Crawford was a Top 10 hitter in most leagues in ’09 and there are not many players out there that are as diverse as Crawford: .280-.300 average, 15+ homers, 40-50 steals and 90-100 runs scored. He really only disappoints on driving in runs.

The Bad: B.J. Upton, OF
Inconsistent and frustrating. Those are two words that sum up Upton. In 2007, at the age of 22, he appeared to be on the cusp of fantasy greatness as the former infielder posted a line of .300/.386/.508 with 24 homers and 22 steals in just 474 at-bats. Unfortunately, his OPS of .894 dropped to .784 in ’08 and down to .686 in ’09. His home run totals have fluctuated from 24 to nine to 11. The only positive side, from a fantasy perspective, is that he’s provided 40+ steals in each of the past two seasons.

Upton will no doubt enter 2010 as a mid-level draftee in most fantasy formats. You can certainly gain value from his 40+ steals but he could very well do damage in the batting average category. His overall value with the bat has diminished significantly over the past two seasons. Upton may be in need of a scenery change, and the club just might accommodate him this winter. He remains a sleeper talent. At 25 years of age, he has yet to enter his prime as a hitter so he could explode any moment. The only thing that’s clear at this point, though, is that if you’re going Upton early in your draft… go Justin. Just don’t dismiss B.J. quite yet.