Archive for Adrian Gonzalez

I ran the 2016 Steamer projections through Zach Sanders’ Fantasy Value Above Replacement system and compared the results to early ADP data. Below I’ve got a player at each infield position that the Steamer projections think are unlikely to live up to their draft day price.

Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles

Wieters coming off the board as the ninth catcher on average makes little sense. For one, drafters are counting on a big bounce back in health from a now 30-year-old catcher. Wieters has a combined 394 plate appearances in the last two seasons. Staying healthy and getting enough PA to be a relevant fantasy option in shallow mixed leagues will be Wieters’ biggest obstacle this season.

But let’s not forget that he wasn’t that great in his last healthy season in 2013. Per our end of season valuations for that year, Wieters was barely starter-caliber in 12-team mixed leagues. His biggest issue that season was a .235 batting average, which was undoubtedly somewhat affected by some bad luck on balls in play. But since that time Wieters has been striking out more, as his strikeout rate was was a career-high 23.8 percent last year in 282 PA. So even assuming better health and an absence of bad luck on balls in play, Wieters seems unlikely to hit for much average. Steamer has a low-but-reasonable projection for Wieters’ BABIP and a 20.3 percent projected strikeout rate with a projection for his average of .244.

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Adrian Gonzalez was pretty fantasy baseball valuable this year. The Los Angeles Dodgers’ first baseman wasn’t, in the preseason, expected to be quite so fantasy baseball valuable. That made him a good deal. He was 11^th on the RotoGraphs consensus rankings list at first base coming into the 2014 campaign and finished as a top-five commodity after it.

A-Gon is kind of boring, to many fantasy baseball players. I recall conversations prior to the season in which folks basically said as much. He had the look of a reasonable consolation prize if you missed out on the sexier first basemen. A big reason was that he’d seemed to have lost the ability to contribute significant power production, which made the evaluation understandable, but which also seemed a little premature. Mike Podhorzer acknowledged that he had no notable explanations for his “bullish” ranking of Gonzalez but that folks just seemed to be undervaluing him, and Pod was right.

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Continuing with our look at the depth charts of the NL West, it’s time to turn our focus to the Los Angeles Dodgers infield. Both first base and shortstop remain locked down by superstars while a lack of a decent free agent market, more or less, forced the Dodgers to stick with what they had. But the team opted to let veteran Mark Ellis leave via free agency and in walks a fresh face over at the keystone. There are likely to be a few question marks, but so far, all seems good in Dodger blue. Read the rest of this entry »

While they say that the only certainties in life are death and taxes, another truism we can all seem to bank on is that change is inevitable. Nothing stays the same and evolution is a daily part of our lives in virtually every aspect. How you react and adjust to that change is the key to your survival. You can remain stuck in your ways, fight against the current and struggle each and every day or you can roll with the punches, accept the need to adapt and thrive through change. Last season Adrian Gonzalez found himself at one of those evolutionary crossroads, made the conscious decision to change and adapt, and now fantasy owners are left wondering if drafting this “new and improved” version of the formerly heavy-hitting first baseman is going to be worth the price of admission moving forward. Read the rest of this entry »

Just two years ago, Dee Gordon was enjoying the fanfare of being listed amongst Baseball America’s Top 50 Prospects. The son of major league reliever Tom Gordon, the young shortstop was receiving rave reviews for his defensive play and, most importantly, his speed. He had cruised through the Dodgers system relatively quickly, got called up mid-season in 2011 and earned the starting nod to open the 2012 season. Not everything had gone according to plan as injuries derailed a lot of the past two seasons, but Gordon had some memorable moments that indicated he could be an impact player at the big league level. Well, with Hanley Ramirez hitting the disabled list for already the second time in this young season, Gordon is finally getting his chance to show what he can do. Read the rest of this entry »

As we look into what 2013 might look like for the Dodger infield, keep this fact in mind — on Opening Day of 2012, the starting fivesome was A.J. Ellis (completely untested at the time), James Loney, Mark Ellis, Dee Gordon, & Juan Uribe. One year later and a few massive expenditures later, we’re likely to see a group that’s 60% different.

The Incumbents: the Law Firm of Ellis & Ellis Read the rest of this entry »

If you’d done nothing in 2012 but read the local papers, you might think that Adrian Gonzalez was among the biggest busts of modern times. Coming off a stellar 2011 Boston debut, his production was down, his Red Sox team was a circus – which he was not immune from after being reportedly caught up in the “text message to Boston ownership” controversy – and he didn’t even end the year with the team. In one of the most shocking trades in baseball history, he was shipped to Los Angeles just a year-and-a-half after the Red Sox gave up Anthony Rizzo, Casey Kelly, & Reymond Fuentes to acquire him and invested seven years & $154 million into retaining him.

While that reaction and Gonzalez’ culpability in the flaming collapse of the 2012 Red Sox are perhaps slightly overblown, it clearly wasn’t the year anyone expected. Gonzalez set full-season career lows in OBP, SLG, wOBA, & wRC+, managing to avoid bottoming out in WAR only because his fielding was so highly graded as compared to his early years in San Diego. Considering that Gonzalez was around the 11^th overall pick on average in ESPN leagues headed into the season, the fact that he ended up only 10^th just among first basemen in Zach Sanders’ end-of-year rankings has to be considered a huge disappointment. Read the rest of this entry »

As Eno pointed out the other day, six of us from FanGraphs/RotoGraphs joined up with six writers from The Hardball Times to do battle in a 12-team rotisserie league for both bragging rights and charity.  The winner gets to donate the prize to the charity of his choice while the site for which he writes gets to reign supreme in the fantasy universe.  Sounds like fun?  Well, you weren’t there for the four-plus hour auction.

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Indeed, I’ve gazed deeply into my crystal ball to present to you yet another set of RotoGraphs bold predictions for 2012. I eagerly anticipate your commentary wrath.

1. Dan Haren wins 20 games. He had pretty rotten run support in 2011 and the Angels did a little something in the off-season that might affect run production. Haren had nine no decisions in which he posted a 2.90 ERA, 0.952 WHIP and an 8.0 K/9. There were 11 games in which the Angels scored two or fewer runs in and Haren won just three of them — but he posted a 2.12 ERA, 0.769 WHIP and a 7.8 K/9. Something’s gotta give, and I say he gets the better end of the wish bone in 2012.

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You’re gonna have to learn your clichés.  You’re gonna have to study them, you’re gonna have to know them. They’re your friends. Write this down:  “We gotta play it one day at a time…I’m just happy to be here and hope I can help the ballclub…I just wanna give It my best shot and, Good Lord willing, things’ll work out.” — Crash Davis

While the influx of baseball chatter and interviews is sincerely welcomed at this time of year, we, as fantasy owners, must maintain a clear head and corral that child-like jubilation that a new baseball season brings.  You’re going to hear a number of comments regarding players and teams from both coaches and general managers, as well as from the players themselves.  You’re going to hear things that get you excited about a particular player and if you don’t take things with a grain of salt, you could get swept up in the pomp and circumstance of spring training, lose sight of what’s actually in front of you, and fall victim to the hype.

So with that, let’s look at some common phrases you’ll hear and how you might want to react to them. Read the rest of this entry »