LA Dodgers Infield: Depth Chart Discussions

	Starter	Back-up	Reserve
C	A.J. Ellis	Tim Federowicz
1B	Adrian Gonzalez	Jerry Hairston
2B	Mark Ellis	Skip Schumaker	Nick Punto
SS	Hanley Ramirez	Luis Cruz	Dee Gordon
3B	Luis Cruz	Jerry Hairston	Nick Punto

As we look into what 2013 might look like for the Dodger infield, keep this fact in mind — on Opening Day of 2012, the starting fivesome was A.J. Ellis (completely untested at the time), James Loney, Mark Ellis, Dee Gordon, & Juan Uribe. One year later and a few massive expenditures later, we’re likely to see a group that’s 60% different.

The Incumbents: the Law Firm of Ellis & Ellis

Behind the plate, A.J. Ellis was a breakout value in his first season as a starter, bringing the on-base skills he’d been showing for years in the minors but also adding a surprising contribution of power. As I noted in his FanGraphs+ report, he was one of just four catchers who had both a .373 on-base percentage and 13 homers last year, along with Buster Posey, Miguel Montero, & Yadier Molina. Considering each of those three got some amount of MVP support, that’s more than a little impressive, and even moreso since Ellis played half of the season on a bad knee that eventually required post-season surgery. In leagues that are NL-only or count OBP, he’s a must-own, and he’s a decent later value in standard formats. Tim Federowicz is likely to be his backup, thought much more due to his glove than his bat; if the Dodgers decide to let him play every day in Triple-A then it’ll be castoffs Jesus Flores or Ramon Castro, but none of the three merit any consideration here.

Mark Ellis is likely to be the only other returning member from last year’s season opener, and there’s little that’s all that interesting about him as he enters his age-36 season. You know what you’re going to get from him at this point — solid-to-excellent defense, time missed due to injury, and a few homers & steals but not enough of either to really care. There’s value in that to the Dodgers, though not really to fantasy players. If you squint hard enough, you can see the potential for an interesting platoon between Ellis (who absolutely cannot hit righty pitching) and newly-acquired Skip Schumaker, who has a huge split of his own and should see time backing up both Ellis and the three starting outfielders. Still, this is a situation to avoid.

The High Priced Acquisitions

As we all know by now, the Dodgers took a massive risk in acquiring Adrian Gonzalez from Boston last year, not only because of the huge contract he has left, but because it required them to take on the salary still coming to Josh Beckett & Carl Crawford as well. Still, it’s easy to see why, because other than Adam LaRoche, arguably the best free agent first baseman on the market this winter was the man Gonzalez is replacing after many disappointing years in Los Angeles, James Loney. When I looked at Gonzalez here in October, I really felt it was about appropriately placing expectations. If you’re looking at Gonzalez like he’s the elite first baseman he once was, you’ll likely be disappointed. If you see him as a solidly above-average option in what’s become an increasingly shallow talent pool of first baseman, there’s really the opportunity for good value here. (And if you’re playing in a league that rewards “best shape of his life” candidates, this story from last week about Gonzalez working out with a former heavyweight champ certainly qualifies.) The Dodgers never did acquire anyone who could back Gonzalez up, so it seems like the job may fall to Jerry Hairston. He’s well past his prime, though he may end up being fantasy-eligible at every position other than shortstop & catcher.

On the other infield corner… oh, no, Hanley Ramirez is for some reason still penciled in at shortstop, despite little evidence he can handle the position and very limited practice time there this winter & spring. Fortunately for you, defense doesn’t matter in fantasy, and Ramirez was one of just three shortstops to put up a 20/20 season last year. There’s still reason for concern, given that his walk and strikeout rates trended the wrong way with the Dodgers, and there’s always worry that he’ll pout if and when the team decides it can no longer stomach his miscues at shortstop. But from a fantasy point of view, Ramirez regaining his shortstop eligibility is pretty big, since he’s missed 20/20 just once in the last six seasons, and that came in 2011 when he missed half the year due to injury. Ramirez is still just 29, and while he’s not likely to return to the elite star he was from 2007 through 2009, he’s still among the upper echelon of fantasy shortstops. (Yes, Dee Gordon still exists and has breathtaking speed, but given that he was among the worst players in baseball on both sides of the ball in 2012 before missing three months due to injury, he’s likely to return to Triple-A this year.)

The Complete and Absolute Question Mark

Then there’s Luis Cruz, who may be the biggest question on a team that has more than its share. You know his story by now — after 12 uninspiring years in the minors, including a career .296 OBP, and a few failed cups of coffee, the injury-riddled Dodgers had no choice but to turn to him in July. As late as August 16, he still had just a .300 OBP, but a red-hot stretch run — .323/.339/.447 over his final 40 starts — propelled him into a starting job for 2013 when the team was unable to upgrade in the offseason. That made for quite the fan-friendly story, but it’s hard to expect anything like that going ahead. For one, six or seven weeks hardly seems to trump a track record of more than a decade; for another, well, I’ll let Paul Swydan explain:

He also finished the season with 119 straight plate appearances without drawing a walk. Cruz’s 3.0 BB% was the third-lowest in baseball among those with at least 250 PA’s this season — only Miguel Olivo, Alexei Ramirez and Pedro Ciriaco walked less frequently on a rate basis. Instead of drawing walks, Cruz made his hay by making contact — only 30 players had a K% less than that of Cruz’s 11.5 K%. But can Cruz maintain such a low strikeout rate? Anecdotal evidence would suggest not. His swinging strike % this year was 8.3%. Thirteen other players, including his teammates Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez, has an identical SwStr% — all 13 struck out more frequently. Looking at his swing percentages, there were only 11 players who swung at balls outside of the zone more frequently than did Cruz, and 11 of them struck out more frequently as well.

Don Mattingly has acknowledged that he’s concerned about third base, and the team sniffed around veterans like Kevin Youkilis and Scott Rolen this offseason. To be completely honest, I’ll be shocked if he’s still starting at third base everyday come July; that said, his eligibility at shortstop makes him intriguing if he’s able to retain any of his late season success.