Sunday Night Fantasy Baseball Chat

The Sunday night chats are back in business and I’ll begin answering questions at 8 CST Sunday night with the queue hopefully opening up one hour earlier. During the season, I’ll normally focus on FAAB and waiver wire questions but anything goes for now. -Jeff

 

The “Beat Jeff Zimmerman League” date has now been set for February 22th at 8:00 PM ET. It’s an NFBC 12-team, FAAB league with a $115,000 grand prize. Click here for more details.

8:01

Jeff Zimmerman: I’ll go ahead and get started.

8:01

Jeff: Who is the better young catcher…Jansen or Mejia?  Who would you prefer to have in a keep forever league?

8:02

Jeff Zimmerman: This is close …. Mejia who I think as more upside. It’s catcher, so a replacement can be found if he flops.

8:03

Vic: Please rank for 2019-2023 total value:   Peraza, Odor, Andersen, Mazara, Laureano, Hampson, Profar.

8:03

Jeff Zimmerman: I need a ton more information like the league details to answer questions like this one.

8:04

Adam: Do you change anything about the way you calculate auction values in a H2H league as opposed to Roto? I figured using z-scores made more sense than SGP.

8:05

Jeff Zimmerman: Either is fine. Depending on the league score (roto vs points), I like to only pay for 7 to 9 categories and dominate those for the weekly win.

8:05

Adam: What’s the best way to convert a set of auction values into draft rounds? Just order them from highest to lowest and that’s your pick value per round?

8:06

Jeff Zimmerman: Yep and then compare to current ADP for deals

8:06

Johnny5Alive: woo-hoo sunday night chat! Either of these reasonable/keepable prices in a 13 team NL only league with $270 cap: $29 Greinke, $22 Wheeler?

8:07

Jeff Zimmerman: Both seem fine. I could see both going for quite a bit more depending on the league’s inflation.

8:07

Chris Paddack, SD: Are you targeting Chris Paddack (SD) for your Whip strategy? I see steamer has him top 20 in both WHIP and ERA. They could promote him 3-weeks in and he could throw 120ish innings total. Very interesting statistically.

8:08

Jeff Zimmerman: He’s on my radar to own late in drafts (453 APD). I think I’ll go for other arms before him.

8:08

bobbo: Next 2 years: A) Gerrit Cole, Brandon Nimmo – B) Juan Soto, German Marquez, Jose LeClerc

8:09

Jeff Zimmerman: B but close

8:10

John: Dynasty league with OBP as 6th roto cat and just need 1 more utility.  Waivers tonight and I need power and OBP, put a bid in for Ji-Man Choi or Dexter Fowler?  Thanks!

8:10

Jeff Zimmerman: Daily moves= Choi, weekly = Fowler

8:11

KJ: What do you think about Zach Eflin?  He was lights out in the first half of the season but really struggled in the second half. Should I look to sell high in a keeper league?

8:11

Jeff Zimmerman: I like him. I just moved him up in my own rankings tonight after looking into his pitch mix.

8:12

Jeff Zimmerman: I’m checking on some numbers of his.

8:14

Jeff Zimmerman: The walks are a concern. If you sell, I’d not fault you as the other owner may not know of the 2H struggles

8:14

Magnum pi’s Mustache: Any chance Berrios ends the year with a whip close to last year. Those offenses in that division are brutal.

8:15

Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe near 1.20 to 1.25. It’s tough to maintain a .270 BABIP

8:16

AC: In a 16-team, 5×5, $300 league with 13 hitters (normal but 1 C) and 11 pitchers (6 SP, 5 RP, all who are remotely SP’s are SP only per the rules)  and a rule that provides that keepers are locked in your starting lineup except when on the DL, I have the following SP’s worth keeping potentially: Bauer $24, Taillon $13, Flaherty $6, Foltynewicz $6.  Is Folty too dangerous locked in my lineup?  Even assuming some regression, I figure he is worth $6.  And, with that group at $49 can I just focus on hitting at the auction?  I think it is good enough with some upside guys who won’t go for more than $5.  Or should I look for one more big SP?

8:16

Jeff Zimmerman: Folty is fine. I made some changes last season and they should stick

8:17

Max: FGpoints inaugural draft, 24 team dynasty, Keep forever – Where should Vlad and Eloy be going?

8:17

Jeff Zimmerman: Vlad, top 10, Eloy, top-30

8:17

BigTuna: Which 3 would you keep in 12 tm OPS league? Devers (8th rd), Robles (14th), Bichette (26), Christin Stewart (27). Thanks

8:17

Jeff Zimmerman: Not Stewart

8:18

Scott: Do you agree with the projections that Jurickson Profar is a ~109 wRC+ player for 2019? Do you think theres more upside there?

8:19

Jeff Zimmerman: Basically, I’d give him a power boost from his projections.

8:19

Barry: How do you feel about Luis Robert? 12 team Dynasty (H2H,daily) league and I have J.Urias, Sixto and Sheffield. Feel like I need to shed a prospect.

8:20

Jeff Zimmerman: I’d do Sixto in a heartbeat. Take the hitting prospects over a pitcher who could blow out his arm at any time.

8:21

Jimmy: Do you tend to fade pitchers in keep-forever dynasty drafts? Hitters seem more reliable year to year and have a longer shelf life. Where would you draft the elite (but older) pitchers? (Sale, Scherzer, DeGrom).

8:21

Jeff Zimmerman: I wouldn’t at all. Maybe in the 10th round

8:21

AC: Thanks re: Folty.  But is that group (Bauer, Taillon, Folty, Flaherty) enough that I don’t have to spend more on SP?

8:22

Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe, I’d take a few more upside arms

8:22

CC: Hi Jeff, final keeper decision for 12 team, 5×5 roto. Who do you prefer of Ozuna ($18), Conforto ($11), or Osuna ($11)?

8:22

Jeff Zimmerman: Conforto at the price

8:22

Stephen: How much do you trust Strasburg to pitch 170ip+?

8:22

Jeff Zimmerman: 20%

8:23

Hank: How much difference in 2019 production – Vlad Jr vs Eloy?

8:23

Jeff Zimmerman: Vlad with 25% to 50%. He’s for sure up first and significantly better.

8:24

BigTuna: Carlos Martinez in the 7th good keeper value in a 12 tm?

8:24

Jeff Zimmerman: Probably. Ask yourself if you put him back, how long would he last in the draft. That’s his real value.

8:24

Reynaldo: Lopez was great at the end of last year. Any pitch or other changes that led to his excellent September?

8:25

Jeff Zimmerman: Nothing I found. I’m not interested at all

8:25

Tim: Dozier or Cano?

8:25

Jeff Zimmerman: Cano

8:25

Vegan Man!: 12 team roto (QS), keep 5 forever, with a 180 start limit for SP. Keeping Cole and Nola. Would you try and draft another top SP early, or is Cole + Nola a strong enough start where I can hold off for a few rounds? Thanks!

8:26

Jeff Zimmerman: Strong enough but I’d try to grab another starter who goes a long distance like Greinke, Porcello, Shark really late.

8:27

Jeff Zimmerman: I could see dumping QS and try for just the K/9 (K is a rate stat with IP limit), WHIP, ERA, and SV

8:27

Fred: Does Hampson play everyday for Rox?  40 SBs?  Decent OBP?

8:28

Jeff Zimmerman: No, word of Rockies camp is that he’s splitting time with McManhon

8:28

Craig: Is Wheeler underrated? Sporer and Justin have in the low 20’s which is good, but he was just dominant second half last year, and if it takes 1 year to just start throwing after TJ, half a year to get control back, does that mean the second half of last year is what his healthy baseline is?

8:29

Jeff Zimmerman: I just went and saw if I needed to adjust projections on him and I didn’t.

8:30

Jeff Zimmerman: I just don’t see him keeping the nice .69 HR/9

8:30

Look Dude: Will Billy Hamilton lead the AL in steals this year?

8:31

Jeff Zimmerman: No when he’s hitting 9th for the Royals. I take Whit and Mondesi over him.

8:31

Stan: Is Nick Senzel really going to start in CF?  And if so, will it be from opening day on?

8:32

Jeff Zimmerman: Cin will keep him down for the two week to get an extra year of control but I could see him up in Apr since the Reds are going for it and they need all the help they can get

8:32

Clint: How many pitchers should be carried in a NFBC 50 man roster?

8:33

Jeff Zimmerman: Half and for me, it’s just starters. I quit gambling on Saves after round 30 or so.

8:33

Gerry: Hi Jeff – deciding between Mazara, Schwarber or Piscotty as 3rd OF in a keeper league.  Any reason for optimism for any of them?

8:33

Jeff Zimmerman: I’d take Mazara with the hope he’ll continue developing

8:34

$11 Worth of Taco Bell: How much would you bid for Josh James in standard AL only 5×5?

8:35

Jeff Zimmerman: $5, maybe. The Astros rotation is loaded and James has minor-league options.

8:36

Paul: Following Acuna in 2017 and Vlad Jr in 2018, who’s this year’s year-long minors stash, hoping for an impactful 2020?

8:37

Jeff Zimmerman: The problem this year is that many of the top prospects should be promoted. Don’t pass them up. Carter Kieboom is my pick

8:37

Philly cheesesteak : Is there any chance that Kingery will improve upon his year 1 performance?

8:37

Jeff Zimmerman: I have little faith in him. He needs to start putting together a few decent weeks.

8:38

Rodney: I’m planning to keep Shane Bieber and Eduardo Rodriguez in a deep dynasty league. I can lock in one’s salary for less than the other’s. Who you prefer, long-term?

8:38

Jeff Zimmerman: ERod

8:38

LA Mike: Do you think Max Muncy will be better given the everyday job?

8:39

Jeff Zimmerman: Probably not since he’ll have to face left-handed pitching every day.

8:39

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Will the Rays use Glasnow as a traditional starter (or at least let him start the game and go 5 innings)?

8:39

Jeff Zimmerman: I expect them to

8:39

Kelly: In a NFBC on the clock. Heaney Skaggs James or Hill? 14th round 12 team

8:39

Jeff Zimmerman: Heaney

8:41

Steve P: Have 10th pick in 10 team H2H (OBP/QS instead of AVG/Wins) league: what would you do round 1/2? Hitter/Pitcher? Hitter/Hitter? Most likely picking from all starters not named Scherzer and then maybe Yelich, Acuna, Harper, Machado, Judge, Stanton, Bregman, etc…

8:41

Jeff Zimmerman: Hitter/deGrom or Hitter/Hitter

8:41

Vic: In a 15 team 2 catcher league, if I don’t get my 1st catcher by round_______, I might as well wait until round_________to fill both slots.

8:42

Jeff Zimmerman: I want both filled by round 20ish

8:42

Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t want the dregs

8:42

Jeff Zimmerman: Any two before then is fine

8:43

Jafo: So I have the 2nd overall pick in an existing dynasty and I am leaning hard at picking Jose Alvardo over guys like RP Jose Leclerc and C Danny Jansen. Am I crazy? It is a two catcher league and I have none. But saves and holds are separate cats, so I don’t care if Alvardo isn’t the closer™. I think my bullpen is my biggest weakness at the moment. There is also the possibility that both SS Adalberto Mondesi and SS Wander Franco are there. I think Mondesi is a one year wonder but he’d be nice insurance and potential trade bait in case Lindor has a off year due to that injury. Franco is def interesting but I am already stacked with prospects and am in win now mode. What would you do?

8:43

Jeff Zimmerman: I’d take Mondesi if trying to win

8:43

Alex: Will Luis Urias do more than just hit for average to be worth owning in a keeper league?

8:43

Jeff Zimmerman: I doubt it. I have no faith there is much behind him

8:43

Willson Contreras: Do I re-establish myself as a top 3 fantasy catcher this year, or more 5-10?

8:44

Jeff Zimmerman: I think it’s 5-10, sorry

8:44

StewZilla: Was offered Stanton/Torres for my Rizzo/Verlander in H2H dynasty (OPS).  I have plenty of pitching (Thor/Scherzer/Snell/Clevenger/more).

8:44

Jeff Zimmerman: Make the trade before they pull it back

8:45

Vegan Man!: Just took over a team in Ottoneu and have to make my cuts tonight. Would you keep $37 Ohtani, $19 Devers, and/or $6 Forrest Whitley? I have a TON of salary tied up in several studs (Arenado, Trea, Mookie, Acuna, Thor) and about 30 roster spots to fill… Thanks!

8:46

Jeff Zimmerman: These are tough. I may drop Ohtani if going for it to free up some space or try to trade him to a non-contending team

8:47

BoogieKnights: Thoughts on Matt Strahm this year? Could see him returning the most value out of all the Padres starters in 2019.

8:47

Jeff Zimmerman: He could. I’m watching in close in ST to see how the transition goes

8:47

Thank you Jeff: I am in a Dynasty League. The settings are 20-teams, OBP, SLG and keep forever players. My pitching is really weak. It is highlighted by Mikolas. He is my ace going into 2018. Offense is decent. Have a surplus at 3B having Arenado, Rendon and Vladito in the wings. Another team made Kluber available. Would you trade Rendon for Kluber straight up? Same team made Blackmon available. Kluber, Blackmon and something else for Arenado? Thoughts? How much does Kluber have in the tank for me one of two nice producers at the hot corner. Sorry for long question. Trying to get some help. Thanks kind sir.

8:48

Jeff Zimmerman: The Rendon trade would be nice if they take it

8:48

Ken: How much more valuable is Shaw with both 2B/3B eligiblity?  Seems like he would rank pretty high at 2B

8:49

Jeff Zimmerman: In leagues with MI, CI, and util, there is no position scarcity. There has been for a few years. I’d just compare Shaw to similar hitters and give him a small boost for the dual positions.

8:50

James: Can Grandal make a big leap with all these left-handed at bats in Miller Park like Yelich did?

8:50

Jeff Zimmerman: No leap, just a small improvement

8:50

Vlads Dad: Dynasty. I have SS depth. I need 2B depth. Should I trade Mondesi to acquire  Hiura.

8:50

Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, if they would make the trade

8:50

Jake: What kind of numbers do you expect from Donaldson in ATL?

8:51

Jeff Zimmerman: 350 PA at most. I have no faith in him staying healthy. We’ll see how he looks in ST

8:52

Max: 10 too early for Soto in dynasty?

8:53

Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe but I could understand the pick. I try my hardest to only draft hitters under 25-years of age.

8:53

Dave: Flaherty Or Paxton in a keeper?

8:53

Jeff Zimmerman: Flaherty based on age

8:53

A Tribe Called Kipnis: Quick, I need a movie appropriate for a 11 year old that is not a f#*@ing cartoon.

8:54

Jeff Zimmerman: Flash or Supergirl series

8:54

Frankenstein : Kershaw for Vlad in a forever keeper?

8:54

Jeff Zimmerman: Yes

8:54

Johnny5Alive: flores really going to play every day? whats the upside or will he be exposed

8:55

Jeff Zimmerman: This could go either way. I’m buying and moving on quickly if it is a train wreck

8:55

Steve: I’ve seen you your Keller and Kelly recently. Who do you like more for 2019? And if there were a Kellogg currently in the majors, would you be in on him too?

8:56

Jeff Zimmerman: I’m more Keller than Kelly at their prices.

8:56

Steve: Any concern with either Trienen or Chapman? Likely to repeat at a “top five roto closer” level?

8:57

Jeff Zimmerman: Yep, most don’t repeat. Diaz is likely to not repeat either.

8:57

John: please rank for 2019 (league counts QS, K/9): Flaherty, Taillon, Clevinger, Castillo

8:58

Jeff Zimmerman: Clev, Flah, Tail, Cast

8:58

Jeff Zimmerman: I have less faith in NL pitchers getting to the QS threashold

8:58

Max: Would you draft a guy like JD Martinez at a discount in dynasty, or do you just fade older players completely?

8:59

Jeff Zimmerman: If he is around in the third round, maybe. Young controlled hitter are the currency of any dynasty league and if the JD owner drops out of contention, he could be picked up for pennies.

9:00

Dave: Kershaw or Bumgarner for this season?

9:00

Jeff Zimmerman: Kershaw

9:00

Chad: Is Brad Keller worth a late pick?  Had some good stats in a smaller sample size.

9:00

Jeff Zimmerman: Yes

9:00

CC: Do you have a personal strategy for a roto league that highly values saves? Do you pay up on draft day or look to play the (very competitive) waiver wire? Perhaps just grab a few of the lower tier guys.

9:01

Jeff Zimmerman: I pay for one or two (league size) cheap reliable guys, throw a ton of late darts, and grind the wire.

9:01

Ken Giles: Top 15 closer this year?

9:02

Jeff Zimmerman: Most likely until he is traded

9:02

KC: Meadows or Odubel…or neither in a keeper league?

9:02

Jeff Zimmerman: Meadows

9:02

Alvin: Are you serious about not drafting pitchers in keep-forever? Does this mean you’d just attack young hitting first?

9:04

Jeff Zimmerman: Yes. I just pound the wire and create a decent staff. Pitching always pops up but not hitting.

9:04

LAKEHEAD: do you buy Ramon Laureano hype, is he worth $10 in $260 league?

9:04

Jeff Zimmerman: He’s close to $10. It’s just how much do you believe in 2017 or 2018

9:05

Jeff Zimmerman: Well, that’s it for tonight. I’ll be back next week.

We hoped you liked reading Sunday Night Fantasy Baseball Chat by Jeff Zimmerman!

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Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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