Starting Pitcher Streamers For Friday 9/26

Hopefully you’ve wrapped up your league title and are running away in the pitching categories with no shot at losing any points. Not the case? That’s okay, I’ve got more streamers for you. As a reminder, I only considered pitchers owned in less than 50% of CBS leagues.

T.J. House vs TB

How is House owned in just 19% of CBS leagues? It’s true that he entered this season as an unknown. He was once a top 10 prospect in the Indians system, but that was all the way back in 2009! His minor league skills had been unremarkable, but it was the type of skill set typically undervalued. You know, the mediocre strikeout rate, but good control and tons of grounders. That’s House in a nutshell and he would rank second in baseball in GB% if he qualified for the leaderboard.

Surprisingly, House’s slider and changeup have both generated SwStk% marks well above league average. Combine that with high ground ball rates and they appear to both have been elite so far. Unfortunately, his fastball has been absolutely terrible at inducing swings and misses, but at least they get grounders. If he somehow gained velocity or improved his fastball, he would be a candidate to enjoy a serious strikeout rate surge. Of course, a real infield defense would help as well. But against a mediocre Rays offense at home, he’s an excellent streamer.

Chris Capuano @ BOS

It’s true that Capuano’s skills have taken a nosedive in September. But as a starter this year, his xFIP remains nearly a full run below his ERA, as he’s had trouble stranding runners. His changeup has remained fantastic, inducing swinging strikes at a 19.5% clip. But his sinker continues to lose the ability to miss bats, while his slider has been awful as well.

The Red Sox rank 11th in the AL in wOBA versus left-handers and sport the third highest strikeout rate against them. When faced with a spot start decision, strikeout potential is typically important, so the upside is there for some punchouts, even if his ratios turn out mediocre.

Blake Treinen vs MIA

I’m going to piggyback on Nick Minnix’s Treinen streamer recommendation from yesterday, which I guess is the equivalent of screaming it. The 26-year-old right-hander has started just six games this year during his rookie campaign, but his overall skill set looks similar to, or a poor man’s version of, House’s above. Treinen flashes good control and induces tons of grounders, but his strikeout rate has been weaker. That’s strange considering he averages nearly 95 mph with his fastball and wasn’t much lower as a starter.

The explanation lies in his fastball usage — he’s thrown it nearly 80% of the time and we know the pitch results in the fewest swings and misses. So all else being equal, the more fastballs you throw, the lower your strikeout rate will be. If he began throwing his slider and changeup more often, he should see an increase in strikeout rate. But for Friday’s outing, it doesn’t matter much. He’ll be facing a weak Marlins lineup and should enjoy a Henderson Alvarez like performance.

Nathan Eovaldi @ WAS

Speaking of pitchers with high octane velocity that don’t strike out as many hitters as you would expect, Eovaldi averages nearly 96 mph on his fastball and yet his K% has never exceeded even 17.5%. And even with that velocity, the pitch still doesn’t even reach the league average SwStk%. Unlike Treinen, he doesn’t throw the pitch too often, it’s just that his secondary offerings aren’t very good. The slider has induced swings and misses at a league average clip this year, but the curve has done so at a below average rate. So velocity aside, the quality of his stuff is just mediocre.

That said, mediocre could be okay when it’s paired with solid control and/or a high ground ball rate. While he doesn’t have the grounder rate, he does throw a high percentage of strikes. He’ll be facing a pretty solid Nationals lineup, but one that does strike out, as they rank fifth in the National League.