The Daily Grind: 9-25-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

1. Ye Olde Innings Exploit
2. Daily DFS
3. Friday Picks
4. Table

1. Ye Olde Innings Exploit

Michael Barr has the annual reminder about the innings exploit that can be used in many fantasy leagues. Basically, most leagues with an innings cap count all stats from the day you go over the cap, whether you exceed the limit by one or 50 innings. It’s a potentially valuable source of strikeouts and wins, but it does expose you to ERA and WHIP variance.

2. Daily DFS

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: There are four games early, but only two of them are available to play on FanDuel. You’ll have your choice of Tom Wilhelmson, Daniel Norris, David Buchanan, and Tom Koehler. When the phrase “pick of the litter” was coined, it was not with this quartet in mind.

Late: Eight games are late, although two look like washouts.

Trevor May has shown all of the qualities that made him a hard prospect to track statistically. He’s had a dominating effort and a handful of flops in eight starts. He’ll face an unforgiving Tigers lineup tonight. A win tonight for Detroit will put the Royals on the ropes in the AL Central.

If the Red Sox even play, they have Allen Webster opposing the Rays. I think we’ve discussed in previous weeks that Webster could benefit from the Carrasco treatment. Send him to the bullpen and let him learn how to go straight through major league hitters. He has the stuff for it.

David Hale is making his first start since May. The long-reliever is probably available for about five innings of work. The Pirates are 1.5 games back in the NL Central and they currently hold a one game lead on the Giants for the first Wild Card slot. So this is an important game for them.

Colby Lewis is today’s Ranger. Curiously, I almost decided to stream start him because the A’s are that bad. I’ll be surprised if they make it past the ALDS. (The outcome of a single game, i.e. the Wild Card play-in, should never be surprising).

3. Friday Picks

Pitchers to Start: The Cleveland Plain Dealer said T.J. House will finish the season in the bullpen. ESPN says he’s starting tomorrow. If it’s House or Josh Tomlin, I’d use them against the Rays. House has an issue with right-handed hitting, which is the main reason why he’s been mediocre. Get used to seeing his name.

Well this is the Boston start I’ve been waiting to see. Maybe you don’t want to jump on board a start from Steven Wright – the future of knuckleballers. It’s funny how there’s usually just one to two knuckleballers in the league. When I was younger, Steve Sparks was ceding to Tim Wakefield, who then retired as R.A. Dickey took the stage. Now Wright appears close to mastering his craft as a 29-year-old. He’s opposed by Chris Capuano.

Pitchers to Exploit: The Nationals and Marlins have another doubleheader tomorrow. The Nats have tabbed Taylor Hill for the second game, while Miami has TBA slotted to start. Hill is a command and control type with minimal swing-and-miss stuff.

Anthony Swarzak will absorb another loss for a lost Twins team. Expect the Tigers to pummel him in one of the few meaningful games of the day.

Brad Peacock and his high walk rate will face the Mets. I expect their lefty bats to do well.

Eric Jokisch has earned a spot start for the Cubs. Unfortunately, his outing is against the left mashing Brewers. The soft-tosser works around 89 mph and had a strong season in the minors as a command and control guy.

Trevor Cahill will see the Cardinals offense as they tune up for the postseason. St. Louis has to put away the Pirates in the NL Central, so we should see their A game.

Hitters (power): Matt Adams has hit some waiver wires due to disappointing production. He’ll have the platoon advantage on Cahill.

Khris Davis, Mark Reynolds, and Rickie Weeks are among the Brewers of note.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis will probably start against Peacock.

Hitters (speed): Norichika Aoki could swipe one with Hector Noesi on the hill.

Mookie Betts is a strong play versus Capuano.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The forecast does not look good for New York and Boston. Avoid those venues. Thankfully, just south in Washington D.C. appears dry enough to play their doubleheader.

The Link. Rain and some lousy home run conditions make tonight pitcher friendly.

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