Starting Pitcher Chart – September 9th, 2021
With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.
Let me know what y’all think about this. Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. I’m still marinating on ideas for the weekend as I won’t be able to commit to separate Saturday & Sunday ones due to time.
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | 10 | 12 | 15+ | L5 STATS | OPP wOBA L30 days | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Stroman | NYM | at MIA | x | x | x | 3.38 ERA, 1,20 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .279 – 30th | He’s been a fantasy ace (2.93 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) |
| Cal Quantrill | CLE | MIN | x | x | x | 3.19 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .327 – 9th | Strong 2H could fuel a ’22 hype machine |
| Carlos Hernandez | KCR | at BAL | x | x | x | 2.30 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .334 – 4th | Great since joining rotation after ASB |
| Néstor Cortes Jr. | NYY | TOR | x | x | x | 3.34 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 18% K-BB | .338 – 14th | Now at 2.83 ERA, 1.07 WHIP as SP (48 IP) |
| José Berríos | TOR | at NYY | x | x | x | 5.19 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 20% K-BB | .327 – 10th | B2B high-K, quality starts (1.98 ERA, 18 Ks) |
| Ranger Suárez | PHI | COL | x | x | x | 2.08 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 13% K-BB | .344 – 9th | Can’t wait to see his ’22 price tag |
| Huascar Ynoa | ATL | WAS | x | x | x | 4.61 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .325 -12th | Strong off the IL and back to all-formats SP |
| Reynaldo López | CWS | at OAK | x | x | x | 2.45 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 19% K-BB | .327 – 8th | He can see… I’m back in!!! |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | at PHI | x | x | x | 2.45 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 11% K-BB | .310 – 17th | Hot hand play I like on the road here |
| John Means | BAL | KCR | x | x | x | 5.96 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 19% K-BB | .326 – 17th | 3 straight strong outings, worth it here |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | CWS | x | x | x | 7.54 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .368 – 3rd | Plenty of 10s where I’d sit him right now |
| Tony Gonsolin | LAD | at STL | x | 2.75 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 8% K-BB | .304 – 21st | Could be a shortened start | ||
| Jake Woodford | STL | LAD | 4.71 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .293 – 26th | Great at MIL last time out, but LAD too scary | |||
| Randy Dobnak | MIN | at CLE | 8.88 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 2% K-BB | .308 – 20th | Lack of whiffs has fully caught up to him | |||
| Jesús Luzardo | MIA | NYM | 6.29 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 10% K-BB | .284 – 27th | Too risky with limited upside right now | |||
| Erick Fedde | WAS | at ATL | 5.70 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .321 – 14th | High blowup potential every time out |
Here’s my (admittedly thin) case for Dobnak:
– he was pretty successful vs RH bats last year with the heavy GB tilt
– CLE lineup starts a fair amount of RH bats and they’ve been ice cold
– his WHIP over his last two starts (12 innings) is south of 1.0
If the league is deep and you’re truly desperate, he’s not the worst lottery ticket you can grab. Hopefully he avoids giving up a couple of moon shots to Ramirez or Bradley.
So much for my defense, Dobnak was scratched due to a finger injury, maybe he hurt it trying to press “like” to my comment.