Starting Pitcher Chart – September 8th, 2021
With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.
Let me know what y’all think about this. Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. I’m still marinating on ideas for the weekend as I won’t be able to commit to separate Saturday & Sunday ones due to time.
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | 10 | 12 | 15+ | L5 STATS | OPP wOBA L30 days | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Eovaldi | BOS | TBR | x | x | x | 2.35 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 29% K-BB | .331 – 6th | Deserves better than his 3.73 season ERA |
| Alek Manoah | TOR | at NYY | x | x | x | 5.67 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .328 – 10th | ERA boosted by 2 bombs in L4 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | LAD | x | x | x | 0.74 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .295 – 23rd | What an incredible story he’s been! |
| Frankie Montas | OAK | CWS | x | x | x | 1.99 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 18% K-BB | .328 – 12th | 2.43 ERA & 87 Ks since 8 ER dud on 6/26 |
| Sandy Alcantara | MIA | NYM | x | x | x | 2.04 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 27% K-BB | .336 – 3rd | L5 have come after that 10 ER Coors dud |
| Triston McKenzie | CLE | MIN | x | x | x | 1.85 ERA, 0.50 WHIP, 26% K-BB | .323 – 13th | In the midst of a huge breakout |
| Shane McClanahan | TBR | at BOS | x | x | x | 3.81 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 23% K-BB | .352 – 6th | 8 H in 3 of L5 is pushing the WHIP |
| Freddy Peralta | MIL | PHI | x | x | x | 4.64 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 22% K-BB | .311 – 19th | Still starting everywhere despite IP issues |
| José Urquidy | HOU | SEA | x | x | x | 2.70 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 19% K-BB | .302 – 21st | Made it 71 pitches in return from IL |
| Joe Ryan | MIN | at CLE | x | x | x | 5.40 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 21% K-BB | .325 – 12th | 0.79 WHIP, 32% K-BB at AAA in 66 IP |
| Yu Darvish | SDP | LAA | x | x | x | 7.77 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 26% K-BB | .279 – 29th | I’d sit if protecting ratios: 7.57 ERA since 7/1 |
| Rich Hill | NYM | at MIA | x | x | 3.97 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .343 – 11th | Hasn’t allowed >4 ER in any start | |
| Luis Gil | NYY | TOR | x | x | 0.00 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .336 – 4th | Massive test for the rookie | |
| Vladimir Gutierrez | CIN | at CHC | x | x | 4.21 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .314 – 18th | SpiderNeck had amped Ks before 3 in L2 | |
| Luke Weaver | ARI | TEX | x | x | 3.70 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .315 – 17th | Gem off IL has re-ignited interest in 27 y/o | |
| Kyle Gibson | PHI | at MIL | x | 5.46 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 8% K-BB | .355 – 2nd | 6, 3, 1, 0, 8 ER in L5 show his volatility | ||
| Tyler Anderson | SEA | at HOU | x | 3.03 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 18% K-BB | .341 – 12th | Hasn’t allowed >3 ER since joining SEA | ||
| Anthony DeSclafani | SFG | at COL | x | 4.12 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .305 – 16th* | 2 IL stints in Aug. limiting IP totals of late | ||
| Kohei Arihara | TEX | at ARI | x | 8.83 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 2% K-BB | .297 – 22nd | Hasn’t reached 4 IP in any of L4 starts | ||
| Mitch White | LAD | at STL | x | 3.10 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .304 – 20th | Has gone more than 4 IP just once | ||
| Matt Manning | DET | at PIT | 7.40 ERA, 1.87 WHIP, 6% K-BB | .285 – 28th | Not even this matchup can lure me in | |||
| Mitch Keller | PIT | DET | 4.56 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .294 – 24th | 0 ER app. in 2 of L3, but other was 7 ER | |||
| Dallas Keuchel | CWS | at OAK | 9.90 ERA, 2.15 WHIP, -3% K-BB | .293 – 21st | Shouldn’t be rostered anywhere | |||
| Sean Nolin | WAS | at ATL | 5.71 ErA, 1.70 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .337 – 14th | HRs make him a stayaway | |||
| Touki Toussaint | ATL | WAS | 3.81 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 8% K-BB | .323 – 15th | 5.52 ERA since those 2 gems after ASB | |||
| Alec Mills | CHC | CIN | 3.81 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .332 – 5th | Not enough upside to gamble | |||
| Jon Gray | COL | SFG | 6.55 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 19% K-BB | .318 – 16th | No chance I’d face these Giants in Coors | |||
| Mike Minor | KCR | at BAL | 4.94 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 18% K-BB | .291 – 23rd | BAL has .199 ISO at home vL this yr (7th) | |||
| Matt Harvey | BAL | KCR | 6.84 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .286 – 27th | 6.52 ERA since those three 0 ER outings |
Not saying I disagree with the list but 5 of the 9 “Do Not Start” guys have an wOBA under .300 over the last 30 days.
I hear you, I just can’t trust ’em, though