Starting Pitcher Chart – September 30th, 2021

September 30, 2021

With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.

Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question.

Starting Monday September 20th, I’m loosening my thresholds for streamer gambles. If you are protecting ratios, you should continue to be careful and manage as you see fit, but these recommendations are catering more to a “go-for-it” attitude over these final two weeks.

September 30th SP Chart

PITCHER	TM	OPP	10	12	15+	L5 STATS	OPP wOBA L30 days	NOTE
Robbie Ray	TOR	NYY	x	x	x	2.51 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 26% K-BB	.311 – 18th	The final touch on a Cy Young win?
Joe Ryan	MIN	DET	x	x	x	2.45 ERA, 0.59 WHIP, 28% K-BB	.317 – 15th	How high will he be rated in ’22?
Lance McCullers Jr.	HOU	TBR	x	x	x	2.48 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 13% K-BB	.319 – 13th	Leading MLB in BB (75), but lots to like in this season
Ian Anderson	ATL	PHI	x	x	x	3.76 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 12% K-BB	.335 – 7th	Hasn’t been his best since return, but too good to sit
Shane Bieber	CLE	at KCR	x	x	x	2.83 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 22% K-BB	.309 – 22nd	Threw 3 perfect IP in his return on 9/24
Alex Cobb	LAA	at TEX	x	x	x	0.98 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 9% K-BB	.288 – 26th	Full yr 25% K, 12% SwStr, & 17% K-BB in case L5 K-BB irks you
Johnny Cueto	SFG	ARI	x	x	x	4.07 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 5% K-BB	.276 – 29th	Rocked by MIL last time, but this a usable matchup
Glenn Otto	TEX	LAA	x	x	x	8.02 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 19% K-BB	.274 – 30th	Flashed those debut skills after 3 duds last time out, be careful
J.A. Happ	STL	MIL		x	x	6.52 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 8% K-BB	.295 – 23rd	Has rebounded from 7 ER dud (3.44 ERA in L4), but sub-5 IP last 2x
Kyle Gibson	PHI	at ATL		x	x	5.88 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 18% K-BB	.327 – 11th	Doesn’t feel great, but this is what constitutes a good streamer
Nick Pivetta	BOS	at BAL		x	x	5.01 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 17% K-BB	.288 – 27th	Matchup driving the interest here
Tony Gonsolin	LAD	SDP			x	4.24 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 11% K-BB	.312 – 18th	Has gone 2 of L3, but it’s not guarantee
Madison Bumgarner	ARI	at SFG				6.21 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 7% K-BB	.316 – 17th	Maybe if you’re in Hail Mary mode, but SF is scaryyyy
Tylor Megill	NYM	MIA				6.48 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 16% K-BB	.286 – 28th	3.8 HR9 in his last six underscore the heavy risk
Corey Kluber	NYY	at TOR				5.73 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 16% K-BB	.360 – 2nd	Has only reached 5 IP once in 4 starts since IL return
Justin Steele	CHC	at PIT				5.63 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 6% K-BB	.279 – 28th	Just not enough here
Tarik Skubal	DET	at MIN				5.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 20% K-BB	.307 – 20th	Hasn’t reached 5 IP in any of his 4 Sept. starts
Ryan Yarbrough	TBR	at HOU				8.06 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 10% K-BB	.346 – 6th	B2B 6 IP starts, buuut the downside is huge
Jon Heasley	KCR	CLE				3.86 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8% K-BB	.293 – 25th	Haven’t seen much in his 2 starts to generate upside
Edward Cabrera	MIA	at NYM				6.35 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 7% K-BB	.334 – 8th	Don’t overrate these end of season stats when it comes to ’22
Alexander Wells	BAL	BOS				9.28 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 7% K-BB	.335 – 8th	Has one start over a 50 Game Score
Vince Velasquez	SDP	at LAD				13.86 ERA, 2.15 WHIP, 11% K-BB	.301 – 24th	Has 8 IP across three starts w/SD
Max Kranick	PIT	CHC				6.46 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 5% K-BB	.346 – 4th	Cubs aren’t even a lineup to attack, tbh
Brett Anderson	MIL	at STL				7.71 ERA, 2.11 WHIP, 5% K-BB	.435 – 1st	Has made it 5 IP just once in his last 5