Starting Pitcher Chart – September 30th, 2021

With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.

Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question.

Starting Monday September 20th, I’m loosening my thresholds for streamer gambles. If you are protecting ratios, you should continue to be careful and manage as you see fit, but these recommendations are catering more to a “go-for-it” attitude over these final two weeks.

September 30th SP Chart
Robbie Ray TOR NYY x x x 2.51 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 26% K-BB .311 – 18th The final touch on a Cy Young win?
Joe Ryan MIN DET x x x 2.45 ERA, 0.59 WHIP, 28% K-BB .317 – 15th How high will he be rated in ’22?
Lance McCullers Jr. HOU TBR x x x 2.48 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 13% K-BB .319 – 13th Leading MLB in BB (75), but lots to like in this season
Ian Anderson ATL PHI x x x 3.76 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 12% K-BB .335 – 7th Hasn’t been his best since return, but too good to sit
Shane Bieber CLE at KCR x x x 2.83 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 22% K-BB .309 – 22nd Threw 3 perfect IP in his return on 9/24
Alex Cobb LAA at TEX x x x 0.98 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 9% K-BB .288 – 26th Full yr 25% K, 12% SwStr, & 17% K-BB in case L5 K-BB irks you
Johnny Cueto SFG ARI x x x 4.07 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 5% K-BB .276 – 29th Rocked by MIL last time, but this a usable matchup
Glenn Otto TEX LAA x x x 8.02 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 19% K-BB .274 – 30th Flashed those debut skills after 3 duds last time out, be careful
J.A. Happ STL MIL x x 6.52 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 8% K-BB .295 – 23rd Has rebounded from 7 ER dud (3.44 ERA in L4), but sub-5 IP last 2x
Kyle Gibson PHI at ATL x x 5.88 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 18% K-BB .327 – 11th Doesn’t feel great, but this is what constitutes a good streamer
Nick Pivetta BOS at BAL x x 5.01 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 17% K-BB .288 – 27th Matchup driving the interest here
Tony Gonsolin LAD SDP x 4.24 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 11% K-BB .312 – 18th Has gone 2 of L3, but it’s not guarantee
Madison Bumgarner ARI at SFG 6.21 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 7% K-BB .316 – 17th Maybe if you’re in Hail Mary mode, but SF is scaryyyy
Tylor Megill NYM MIA 6.48 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 16% K-BB .286 – 28th 3.8 HR9 in his last six underscore the heavy risk
Corey Kluber NYY at TOR 5.73 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 16% K-BB .360 – 2nd Has only reached 5 IP once in 4 starts since IL return
Justin Steele CHC at PIT 5.63 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 6% K-BB .279 – 28th Just not enough here
Tarik Skubal DET at MIN 5.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 20% K-BB .307 – 20th Hasn’t reached 5 IP in any of his 4 Sept. starts
Ryan Yarbrough TBR at HOU 8.06 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 10% K-BB .346 – 6th B2B 6 IP starts, buuut the downside is huge
Jon Heasley KCR CLE 3.86 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8% K-BB .293 – 25th Haven’t seen much in his 2 starts to generate upside
Edward Cabrera MIA at NYM 6.35 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 7% K-BB .334 – 8th Don’t overrate these end of season stats when it comes to ’22
Alexander Wells BAL BOS 9.28 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 7% K-BB .335 – 8th Has one start over a 50 Game Score
Vince Velasquez SDP at LAD 13.86 ERA, 2.15 WHIP, 11% K-BB .301 – 24th Has 8 IP across three starts w/SD
Max Kranick PIT CHC 6.46 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 5% K-BB .346 – 4th Cubs aren’t even a lineup to attack, tbh
Brett Anderson MIL at STL 7.71 ERA, 2.11 WHIP, 5% K-BB .435 – 1st Has made it 5 IP just once in his last 5

Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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Pirates Hurdlesmember
7 months ago

Bucs will go with top 100 prospect Miguel Yajure instead today.