Starting Pitcher Chart – September 29th, 2021

September 28, 2021

With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.

Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question.

Starting Monday September 20th, I’m loosening my thresholds for streamer gambles. If you are protecting ratios, you should continue to be careful and manage as you see fit, but these recommendations are catering more to a “go-for-it” attitude over these final two weeks.

September 29th Starter Chart

PITCHER	TM	OPP	10	12	15+	L5 STATS	OPP wOBA L30 days	NOTE
Max Scherzer	LAD	SDP	x	x	x	1.32 ERA, 0.62 WHIP, 33% K-BB	.312 – 17th	Bumpy Coors start easily forgiven for the NL Cy favorite
Frankie Montas	OAK	at SEA	x	x	x	2.61 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 15% K-BB	.308 – 21st	4 ER blip at KC is a clear outlier over his last 16 (2.38 ERA)
José Berríos	TOR	NYY	x	x	x	3.27 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 23% K-BB	.332 – 11th	Closing brilliantly w/6 straight QS (2.70 ERA, 46 Ks in 40 IP)
Gerrit Cole	NYY	at TOR	x	x	x	4.61 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 24% K-BB	.363 – 2nd	One of the few exceptions to #NeverToronto
Nathan Eovaldi	BOS	at BAL	x	x	x	4.85 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 23% K-BB	.295 – 26th	Brutal 7 ER outing v. NYY last time out doesn’t deter me
Max Fried	ATL	PHI	x	x	x	1.59 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 18% K-BB	.313 – 18th	Riding 16 straight scoreless incl. a Maddux his last time out
Sonny Gray	CIN	at CWS	x	x	x	4.33 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 17% K-BB	.326 – 12th	Tough draw, but I can’t really see sitting him
Aaron Nola	PHI	at ATL	x	x	x	6.58 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 31% K-BB	.335 – 10th	A pair of 6 ER duds over L5 fueled by 4 HR, had 13 K/3 BB in ’em
Carlos Rodón	CWS	CIN	x	x	x	2.35 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 28% K-BB	.298 – 24th	Left last start w/arm soreness
Alex Wood	SFG	ARI	x	x	x	3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 26% K-BB	.305 – 20th	Should be stretched out enough to make it 5 if he’s rolling
Logan Gilbert	SEA	OAK	x	x	x	2.93 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 19% K-BB	.323 – 13th	Barely remember his 9.13 Aug. ERA now
Zach Plesac	CLE	at KCR	x	x	x	3.68 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 15% K-BB	.301 – 23rd	Pitching well & a great matchup make him a good play
Luis Garcia	HOU	TBR	x	x	x	3.33 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 5% K-BB	.320 – 14th	Skills fading a bit, but still going at least 5 IP per start
Drew Rasmussen	TBR	at HOU		x	x	1.88 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 12% K-BB	.338 – 7th	Has gone 5 in 3 of the last 5, netting Ws in 2 of them
Adrian Houser	MIL	at STL		x	x	3.00 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 8% K-BB	.316 – 15th	Might not get a post-clinch lineup bc of the W streak
Miles Mikolas	STL	MIL		x	x	4.91 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7% K-BB	.315 – 16th	Has notched 5+ in each of his L4 incl. 7 strong last time
Michael Pineda	MIN	DET		x	x	3.38 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 10% K-BB	.312 – 18th	Has won 4 straight hasn’t K’d >3 since July 26th (6 starts)
Taylor Hearn	TEX	LAA			x	5.72 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 10% K-BB	.301 – 22nd	High risk, but 7 ER dud is inflating L5 #s; 3.96 ERA in other 4
Taijuan Walker	NYM	MIA			x	8.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 14% K-BB	.290 – 28th	Caution: Flammable -3 starts of 5+ ER and 2 w/2 ER in his L5
Paolo Espino	WAS	at COL				3.67 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 16% K-BB	.289 – 22nd	Would actually have some interest if he wasn’t in Coors
Kyle Hendricks	CHC	at PIT				9.25 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 3% K-BB	.311 – 19th	PIT has his # this yr: 7.45 ERA, 1.60 WHIP in 19.3 IP
Elieser Hernandez	MIA	at NYM				4.81 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 13% K-BB	.338 – 6th	3 HR last time out after B2B 0 HR outings
Daniel Lynch	KCR	CLE				6.75 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 7% K-BB	.327 – 12th	Interesting rookie for ’22 after showing a few flashes this yr
Casey Mize	DET	at MIN				4.24 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 16% K-BB	.295 – 25th	IP mgmt. plan kills any shot at a W (11 IP in L4 GS)
Merrill Kelly 켈리	ARI	at SFG				5.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 9% K-BB	.363 – 1st	Did drop 8 scoreless v. SF back on 8/5, but I’m not risking it
Dinelson Lamet	SDP	at LAD				Been an RP since IL return in Sept.	.293 – 27th	Hasn’t topped 2 IP since June 26th
Janson Junk	LAA	at TEX				3.75 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 6% K-BB	.309 – 20th	4 UER protecting his ERA, but heed the 8.25 FIP in his 3 MLB GS
Zac Lowther	BAL	BOS				6.06 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 8% K-BB	.334 – 9th	#s are for his L4 starts as 5th was in May… not that it matters
Peter Lambert	COL	WAS				Has 1 start of 3.7 IP	.337 – 8th	No

*home vR for COL

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zurzlesmember

2 years ago

Roansy?

Paul Sporermember

Reply to zurzles

who?

Reply to Paul Sporer

Contreras? Making his debut against CHC tomorrow

I use our Probables page & we didn’t have anyone for PIT. He missed a ton of bats in AA this yr, but I don’t think I’d use him in any format

Pirates Hurdles

50the best prospect in MLB on this website, come on man.

Reply to Pirates Hurdles

I know the name, didn’t know he was slated to start today. We had null on PIT