Starting Pitcher Chart – September 28th

by Paul Sporer

September 28, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

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Starter Notes September 28, 2023

RK	PITCHER	GAME	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK L30/Season
1	Zack Wheeler	PHI v PIT	x	x	x	188	3.64	1.07	22%	10th/20th
2	Cole Ragans	KCR at DET	x	x	x	89	3.31	1.14	19%	4th/22nd
3	Corbin Burnes	MIL at STL	x	x	x	189	3.46	1.06	17%	24th/10th
4	Sonny Gray	MIN v OAK	x	x	x	180	2.80	1.15	17%	22nd/28th
5	Jordan Montgomery	TEX at SEA	x	x	x	182	3.25	1.19	15%	17th/16th
6	Chris Bassitt	TOR v NYY	x	x	x	192	3.74	1.19	15%	28th/27th
7	Jesús Luzardo	MIA at NYM	x	x	x	171	3.73	1.24	20%	20th/24th
8	Chris Sale	BOS at BAL	x	x	x	97	4.42	1.15	23%	10th/9th
9	Logan Gilbert	SEA v TEX	x	x	x	184	3.75	1.09	20%	4th/3rd
10	Sawyer Gipson-Long	DET v KCR	x	x	x	15	2.40	1.07	23%	17th/26th
11	David Peterson	NYM v MIA			x	104	5.37	1.60	16%	11th/10th
12	Dean Kremer	BAL v BOS			x	167	4.25	1.33	13%	25th/7th
13	Dakota Hudson	STL at MIL			x	76	4.95	1.47	3%	15th/24th
14	Ryan Yarbrough	LAD at COL			x	85	3.78	1.14	15%	24th/29th
15	Marcus Stroman	CHC at ATL				134	3.88	1.25	12%	2nd/1st
16	Touki Toussaint	CHW v ARI				83	5.10	1.45	7%	21st/11th
17	Luis L. Ortiz	PIT at PHI				81	4.96	1.73	2%	7th/6th
18	Luke Weaver	NYY at TOR				119	6.47	1.57	12%	11th/13th
19	Luis Medina	OAK at MIN				103	5.64	1.54	10%	5th/5th
20	Dylan Dodd	ATL v CHC				28	7.62	1.94	2%	3rd/11th
21	Chris Flexen 플렉센	COL v LAD				96	7.01	1.69	8%	3rd/2nd
22	Bryce Jarvis	ARI at CHW				18	2.45	0.93	0%	29th/30th

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

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5 Comments

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filter2Member since 2025

2 years ago

3 of Chris Sale’s 5 worst starts over the last 2 years have come against Baltimore. Allowing 5, 6 and 7 runs in those starts.

Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff

Reply to filter2

Oh damn, maybe we gotta tap the brakes a bit then. I didn’t realize Baltimore had his number like that. I’m probably still starting him if I’m chasing and hoping to spike a gem, but ratio protectors might be best sitting him

JolieMember since 2017

Paul, what is the likelihood that Snell, Webb, Pepiot, or Gausman pitch on the final day of the season?

GreggMember since 2020

Reply to Jolie

Not Paul, but here’s my thoughts:

Webb: 0%, manager has confirmed shutdown
Snell: close to 0%, he doesn’t want to risk getting hurt before free agency
Gausman: depends entirely on if Blue Jays have already clinched WC berth. It’s very likely they do, so I wouldn’t count on it.
Pepiot: fairly likely. Dodgers have nothing really to play for with ATL getting homefield advantage however they do get to skip the WC round. Pepiot probably gets some work in as a follower with 50-80 pitches.

SGL didn’t get the win but he was perfectly cromulent! 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 6Ks is not too bad.