Paul Sporer’s Final Chat of the Regular Season – September 27th

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, thanks for coming out!

Guest: Who wins the AL West?

Paul Sporer: Seattle is fully in control of their destiny w/HOU & TEX series, but I think it comes to the state of Texas. I can’t quit the Stros and think they get it done

Insert Witty Name Here: I have one last day to throw SPs and I need at least two QS and limited damage to my WHIP. Ragans @ DET, Kremer vs BOS, and Megill vs MIA. Do you like my odds and is Touki worth a spec add as well?

Paul Sporer: I like your trio and I wouldn’t add Touki. Too scary, even after B2B solid starts… he could decimate your WHIP in a blink

Matt: No question, Paul, just a big THANKS for doing these chats all year!

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much for coming out. I enjoy doing these. If y’all missed the note, there will be no chats in October from me as I decompress a bit but back at it in November as baseball is year-round for me!

Yogi Brown: How real is this stretch for Reese Olson? and do you like him for next year?

Paul Sporer: Pretty real and I’m a fan of his for sure. Definitely behind Skubal on the young Tiger arms of intrigue, but I think he’ll get plenty of offseason buzz as a breakout potential

Guest: for 2024: Colt Keith or Coby Mayo?

Paul Sporer: I lean Mayo. Even if the two skillsets aren’t too far apart, I gotta go w/the better team

Hit Me Bibee One More Time: No question, just a thanks for answering questions and helping me to get a H2H championship this year!

Paul Sporer: Happy to help, congrats!!!

Kyle: Nolan Jones seems like a very boom or bust pick for next year. He sort of reminds me of Tyler O’Neill from 2022. Both players can hit 30 HRs with 20 SBs, had lots of injuries, and the pivotal aspect is the K ratio. You didn’t buy TON – you buying Jones?

Paul Sporer: I’ll buy Jones bc he won’t cost anywhere near what TON cost coming off his breakout. The Coors security blanket helps w/Jones, too, but I agree that he will be boom/bust for sure. If the price gets TOOO crazy, I will bow out, but I was impressed by Jones this year

Paul Sporer: I think he ran a crazy high BABIP which is certainly possible in Coors, but I’d temper the AVG expectations for sure

Guest: Hi Paul.  Pick 3 to keep in a 12 team roto: albies 3rd round, o. Cruz 10th round, Royce Lewis late round, or j walker late round.  Thanks

Paul Sporer: Can’t keep Cruz in the 10th off of air at this point. Even a modest season this year would have me more interested in him, but just not playing is so tough. Throw him back and might get him in the 10th again

Cedric Mullins: Justin Mason’s favorite has had a rough year. Do we like him for next year and chalk most of this campaign up to nagging injuries?

Paul Sporer: I’m not averse to buying the dip depending on where that dip goes. He went 4th round in an early draft of 7 rounds run by Rob DiPietro… I’m probably looking for a little more of a discount than that

Scott TINSTAAPP: JV ended up being perfectly cromulent this season despite the low K rate. Where do you think his ADP settles next season?

Paul Sporer: Cromulent indeed! His age will keep the price down a bit, too, and as such, I think we could see something in the 7th-9th round range. Lotsssssssss of young arms going to get pushed up and could result in a bit of a bargain for JV

Guest: speaking of Tyler O’Neill, 2024 sleeper or done?

Paul Sporer: I’ll buy the dip, especially if he’s in a new environment which I do expect. His profile is one where you always wanna buy cheap. That’s why I was so off on buying after his breakout… too volatile a profile both w/the swing & miss and injuries

David (formerly Sonoma State): Yo! What’s the plan for Fall League?

Paul Sporer: I’ll be at the Baseball HQ First Pitch Arizona conference! Unfortunately they’re doing the All-Star game on Sunday and I’ll be headed home beforehand, but I can’t wait to hang out, do the pod, and talk baseball w/diehards!!

Paul Sporer: https://www.baseballhq.com/first-pitch-arizona

Bobby Miller: Am I pitching Sunday?

Paul Sporer: Sooo hard to know, but they’re getting a bye so they don’t necessarily need to hold him back

Paul Sporer: Could be a 3-inning kinda deal, though, too

Kyle: Does deGrom have more innings pitched or MRIs scanned in 2024?

Paul Sporer: Not sure how often you get MRIs while healing from TJ, but I don’t expect many innings

Kyle: When do you expect to publish your 2024 SP rankings?

Paul Sporer: Should have just a ranking in October and then one with detailed commentary in November and then regular updates from there

Bruce: Thanks for the chat.  First half Tyler Wells looked like an elite SP and great future value for those who got him cheap, second half…not so much.  Do you see the Orioles giving him another shot at the rotation next spring and him possibly succeeding, or do you think his opportunity to start with the Orioles has come and gone?

Paul Sporer: I’d be surprised if they are done w/him as a starter. Maybe they’re just slowly building his innings, but it was kinda odd to see him stopped cold and then back for one appearance this month

Guest: Royce Lewis = B Buxton 2.0?

Paul Sporer: Maybe

Pete: Who do we like for steals this weekend? Getting desperate

Paul Sporer: Gimme some names and I’ll let you know who I like. Too hard to shoot in the dark

Farts Magoo: Kelenic, Suwinski, Pham or Parker Meadows. Who would you go with if you had to pick one and a championship was on the line this week.

Paul Sporer: Pham facing HOU, so prob avoiding him. Kelenic possibly getting 2 lefties so he’s eliminated so it’s down to Suwinski and Meadows and I lean Suwinski. That’s just off the dome, so be sure to analyze playing time closely, too, but it doesn’t look like Pittsburgh gets any more lefties after Suarez today

NPB Starters: Any thoughts on some of the other NPB Starting pitchers not named Yamamato? I’m wondering how Naoyuki Uwasawa and Shota Imanaga will fit into MLB Rotations.

Paul Sporer: I get my NPB report from Tim McLeod when we visit at the Arizona Fall League. He stays fully in tune with all the goings-on and always put me on the best guys. Had me on Maeda and Tanaka well before they were trendy (among others!)

Salty: Having not drafted him, I was surprised to see how strong a season Tork has had.  Do you think it’s going largely unnoticed and he will go for a discount next year?  Or will people see what he did, consider his age, and bid fair or up?

Paul Sporer: He started slowly again, too, so he was cut in a decent number of leagues understandably. I think he will be affordable in the fall and winter but then experience spring helium as a trendy breakout pick (though he actually broke out this summer… but the idea will be now he’s going to do a FULL season of what he did this summer)

Guest: A chance maybe Esteury Ruiz wins the stolen base title over acuna?

Paul Sporer: I can absolutely see him chasing it, pun intended

Paul Sporer: Would be cool to defeat a superstar like that, so I imagine he’ll continue to run wild when on base

Kyle: Tigers will likely finish 2nd in the AL central in 2023. I can’t imagine MIN being much more of a favorite in 2024 to win the division over DET. Do you think DET will pull off the division next year?

Paul Sporer: I think my boys have a shot. Lot of nice things came together in the summer and if E-Rod stays, the rotation is starting to develop some real depth to it. I’m still going to favor Minnesota pretty easily heading into the offseason, but Detroit has just as much a chance as any of the other teams in the division

Guest: Where do you rank Yainer Diaz among C’s next year assuming Maldonado and more importantly, Dusty Baker, are gone?

Paul Sporer: He’s a top 10-12 guy for me w/the potential to push further if he’s given the job outright. I gotta imagine the Astros are really regretting the Abreu deal even more now w/Diaz’s emergence

Guest: random 2024 comp: Kikuchi vs. Ober

Paul Sporer: Yeah, they’re gonna be close – lefty/right clones with their HR issues always threatening their success but the skills to outrun the longball when they’re dialed in (as both have been most of this year)

David Appelman: Greetings Paul – I received your request to take off October from your weekly chats but unfortunately I have to deny your request. Please continue your regularly scheduled chats.

Paul Sporer: Dang. Merked.

Kyle: Do you listen to any other fantasy baseball podcasts? If so, which ones?

Paul Sporer: I’m woefully behind on podcasts these days, but as the weather cools down and I can start taking more regular walks with Charlotte so she doesn’t burn her little paws on the cement, I’ll be listening to pods more consistently. Enjoy offseason pods more anyway so it works and these are among my faves:

• Rates & Barrels
• On the Corner by PitcherList
• Rotowire Fantasy Baseball
• In This League
• Pull Hitter Podcast
• Launch Angle
• FTN Fantasy Baseball

Guest: Pick 2 to keep late round roto: Casas, J walker or R Lewis.  Thank you

Paul Sporer: I’m still gonna ride w/Royce despite the piling up injuries and then I’m kinda 50-50 on the power guys, both of whom I liked coming into this year. Gimme Casas by a hair!

RAH: Jake Fraley was having a great year and was underrated in daily leagues. Then he hurt his foot and has essentially lost the whole 2nd half of the season. The OF is crowded: TJ Friedl has been getting some pub lately, Steer could be moved to the OF, etc. Would you still bet on Fraley being a constant in the lineup vs RHP next year?

Paul Sporer: I love Fraley as you may well know but part of that love is Cincy’s park and I do wonder if maybe he’s moved in the offseason as they are starting to pile up quite a few bats. Obviously injuries happen so they can’t just trade everyone who isn’t starting, but it’d make some sense to consolidate Friedl/Fraley into just 1 of ’em. For now, I’ll buy Fraley as I expect him to remain cheap

Paul Sporer: A move could be a net positive, though, too. Maybe he loses the park but secures full-time burn which in the end works out in his favor.

Guest: will the Twins make any noise in the playoffs … knowing they won’t face the Yankees is a start!

Paul Sporer: They are my “watch out, they can make some noise” team, though I’m not QUITE as hyped on that notion as I was just a few weeks ago as the offensive injuries continue to pile up. Royce and Correa should be back in time for the playoffs, though, so I’ll still be tagging them as my under the radar team to click in October

Paul Sporer: Their pitching is so good. They’re gonna put a gem in the pen when they trim their rotation and that’s already a strong bullpen! Imagine Ober coming out for the 2-3 IP ahead of Jax, Thielbar, Duran

Paul Sporer: And Pagan has tamped down his HR issue this year… if that’s real, he can be a gem, too. Though it’s built off a 6% HR/FB that might regress at the worst time of the year, so I’d still prefer him earlier in games v. later

Kevin: I’ve got 4 starts left before the limit and QS is really tight in my 9-team roto. Doing Berrios tonight vs NYY, Strider’s last start vs WSH, and probably Montgomery tomorrow @SEA. Would you save a start for Logan Webb vs LAD on the last day of the season, or find someone to stream?

Paul Sporer: Dodgers are tough, of course, but I’d roll w/the ace. He’s been excellent this year, the Dodgers could be resting a couple guys, and Webb has been fine v. them this year

Farhandrew Zaidman: Every competing team should be calling the Padres this offseason about Juan Soto, right? He’s a pure rental so the return won’t be THAT outrageous.

Paul Sporer: Yes, but they really shouldn’t deal him. They aren’t far from competing at all. This season was an anomaly. That kind of 1-run/extra-innings failure isn’t endemic. There’s virtually ZERO chance they repeat that kind of struggle on ANY level next year

Salty: BTW, thanks for another great season.  I always appreciate when you answer my questions, but it helps just as much to read others’ questions and your responses, as it helps broaden my frame of mind and consider players and/or strategies I hadn’t thought of before.

Paul Sporer: Thanks for the kind words! I appreciate everyone who comes out as well as those who read the transcript (which is many more people than I realized until this year!)

Colton: The White Sox just ran Deivi Garcia out after starting Luis Patino and for whatever reason that scratches an itch for me. They’re the same player in my mind and it’s neat to see them in a game together lol

Paul Sporer: A pair of one-time alluring prospects that I quite liked, especially Patiño! He’s just 23 and Garcia 24 so I’m reluctant to even write them off at this juncture. Could be 2 interesting scoops for Chicago in the future!

Regret Monster: Feeling it today after starting Blackburn and Houck yesterday. Coulda had Ober instead too if I’d just gone the extra dollar for him. Any advice for coping with roto crunch time regrets?

Paul Sporer: Ooof, that’s painful. It’s so hard not to get caught up in that during this part of the season but you can’t beat yourself up and start to second guess everything you do. Gotta do your best to wash it off and keep pushing ahead. Obviously at this time of year, there’s not much time to put it in the rearview since the season ends Sunday, but we’ve allll been there. The September misses sting more bc of less time overcome them, but no one aces every move in a given year and you just have to trust the processes that put you in a competing spot in the first place

Why Not Zoidberg: Just here celebrating a 3-peat in my H2H league and an impending win in my roto league. Thanks for the chats this year!

Paul Sporer: let’s goooo!! congrats!!!

The Duda Abides: Does Jordan Lawler’s disappointing debut lower his stock at all for next year?  Will he start the season in the majors?

Paul Sporer: Absolutely. Tiny sample, but very ugly and will help depress his price a bit, especially in fall/winter drafts. He could get spring buzz but even with helium, I can’t envision him being too cost prohibitive

Guest: “I’m still gonna ride w/Royce” – missed opportunity there to say that you’re “still gonna roll w/Royce”. Keep that in mind going forward.

Paul Sporer: OMG yesss, total miss by me, but appreciate the heads up

Please: Can Kerry Carpenter improve in 2024 or was this a fluke career year?

Paul Sporer: Not sure he necessarily improves, but definitely not a fluke IMO. I think he can maintain around this level. I’ll probably tamp down the AVG a bit but I thought there was 30 HRs in that bat coming into the season and pretty much only injury prevented that this year.

bRADish: Where are you thinking Bradish is ranked next year? Top 30 SP? I have him and Bibee both as potential keepers

Paul Sporer: Definitely Top 30. I’ll be deep diving him to make sure it’s not just confirmation bias since I was on him coming into the season (like I slid that in? lol) but I really think he’s a great pitcher and has a chance to maintain this excellence

KC Pain: Granted they are bad currently, how come FA hitters dont flock to Coors the opposite of how FA pitchers avoid it?  Youd think they could easily add bats and try to out hit everyone ala the Braves.

Paul Sporer: Maybe they don’t offer enough? Also their general dysfunction can be a turnoff even if they are throwing big bucks around

Guest: Is Snell’s Cy Young going to be legit or is he just a BABIP and LOB% merchant?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think that’d make it un-legit. Obviously he ran a tightrope to this success given his walks, but he also has a 32% K rate and kept the ball in the park. I think it’d be wrong to chalk it up to just good luck, he’s a great pitcher

Ron: Ragans a good stream tomorrow, with a need for a W?  Thanks for all the chats during the season.

Paul Sporer: Absolutely. Love my Tigers, but I’ll gladly run Ragans v. them

KC Pain: Why doesnt Phil Niekro get more love? I see people talking about Nolan Ryan for longevity, and yeah sure K are sexy, but Niekro had like 1/2 his walk rate….as a knuckleballer lol.  Numbers for career are similar but outside of K, I think Niekro wins the rest.  Sorry for more of a rant than a question.

Paul Sporer: We were discussing his excellence on my stream over the weekend. I think part of it is the knuckleball… it’s too often dismissed as a gimmick, which sure it is on some level, but also takes a ton of skill to master like he did. Also his presence in the era when W-L record drove so much of the discussion hurts him a bit since he piled up decisions on bad teams despite being a GREAT pitcher

Farhandrew Zaidman: The single most value pitch this year by Statcast’s run value is Logan Webb’s changeup (with Cole, Gallen, and Bassitt’s fastballs right on his tail). Don’t really have a question, just wanted to throw a stat out there.

Paul Sporer: Wooow that’s impressive. I wouldn’t have guessed that off hand

KC Pain: DJ Stewart, Wallner, or Rooker?  Who is the best of the bunch?

Paul Sporer: I’m a Wallner guy

Paul Sporer: And I think his PT opens up next year for a chance at full year burn

HappyFunBall: Locked up HRs last week, thanks to TJ Freidl and Nelson Velasquez, just like I expected all along…

Paul Sporer: LOLOLOL September is when fandoms of random players are born as they lead us to fantasy titles!

Bob: Pick one to keep next year: Spencer Steer, Mike Trout, Corbin Burnes

Paul Sporer: All things even, it’s Burnes.

JadedAF: Preliminary question for next year in a keep 8 league. Which 2 of these would you keep from this list.

Bo Naylor, Andrew Vaughn, Zack Geloff, Rafaela, Kwan, Westburg, Royce Lewis, R Greene, J Duran, E Clase, Woo, Gavin Williams, Bryce Miller, Mayo,

I’m intending to keep B Witt Jr, Casas, Vinnie P, PLopez, Skubal, Kirby already but interested to see your professional on if that’s a good idea with 3 starters and an injured Italian breakfast

Paul Sporer: I’m gonna roll with Royce (just made that up off the top of my head, wow I’m clever!!) along with one of Greene, Gelof, Woo, or Williams. Greene is expected to be good to go for 2024 but stay tuned on news there until your keeper deadline. Duran might also be in the mix depending how many closers you expect to be kept assuming you play 5×5. In fact, as I’m typing this, I’m leaning his way more and more so you can add an ace closer to your keeper stock. If your league doesn’t really keep closers, you can pivot to one of the first 4 I mentioned

JadedAF: Thank you for answering! I don’t tune into chats often but I’ve always enjoyed yours and just recently subscribed so I can in the future. Finally getting out of the basement into a 5th place finish out of 9 and your help on fangraphs has been instrumental. Have a good off season and streams!

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much, and good luck nailing down those keepers!

GettinRowdy: Thoughts on Vientos for next year? I may be crazy, but for years I’ve been saying he will be Pete Alonso lite when he gets a shot in the majors.  The only thing I see holding him back is the groundball rate.

Paul Sporer: Yesss I’m right there with you! He was a late dart throw for me in Draft Champions leagues this year and while it didn’t quite pan out entirely, I’m not off him for ’24. He’s probably gonna be my Kerry Carpenter for ’24 as a late-round target who can hit mid-20s w/legit 30+ upside

Thanks Paul: Thanks for the chats and twitch streams all season Paul! I have snuck into 3rd in my roto (which means $) by half a point. So pray for me

Paul Sporer: Let’s hold for a few more days!!!

Princess Leia: Is Acuña gonna get those last two SBs? Not if he keeps jacking dongs and ripping bombs! P.s. How many innuendos can we make with home run lingo?

Paul Sporer: LOL, I’d be really surprised if he didn’t try once on base. 40/70 is so cool

Ben: What’s your take on Michael King’s 2024 outlook? Do you think the Yankees give him a rotation spot and how interested are you if they do?

Paul Sporer: I’d be surprised if they don’t! He has been so impressive down the stretch here and they’ve flirted w/him as a starer before. I think he gets a full go and he’ll be an interesting riser coming into ’24.

Jung Bong Jovi: No question today.  Thank you for everything you do and for all of your help.  I’m going up against my brother in the finals this week.

Paul Sporer: A family affair! That’s so cool, best of luck to you and thank you so much for the kind words

Hillsdale: Hey Paul! Christopher Sanchez or Kyle Hendricks as my last SP in a 10 team points league? Thanks for the help all year!

Paul Sporer: I’ll take Sanchez at the Mets for the weekend.

Guest: Do you see Casas as a top 10 1B next year?

Paul Sporer: Notttt quite Top 10 off rip, but Top 15-18 with real upside to be a Top 10 guy by season’s end

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta head out. Thank you all so much for hanging out throughout the year! Like I mentioned earlier, small October hiatus on chats as we all decompress a bit from fantasy and enjoy the playoffs, but then back at it in November as we start researching for 2024. Peace!