Starting Pitcher Chart – September 28th, 2021
With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.
Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question.
Starting Monday September 20th, I’m loosening my thresholds for streamer gambles. If you are protecting ratios, you should continue to be careful and manage as you see fit, but these recommendations are catering more to a “go-for-it” attitude over these final two weeks.
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | 10 | 12 | 15+ | L5 STATS | OPP wOBA L30 days | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Woodruff | MIL | at STL | x | x | x | 2.70 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 29% K-BB | .316 – 14th | Has gone exactly 6 in all of his L5, but just a 2-3 record |
| Zack Wheeler | PHI | at ATL | x | x | x | 2.12 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 22% K-BB | .330 – 9th | Leading MLB in IP (206.3) and NL in Ks (240) |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | MIL | x | x | x | 3.52 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 6% K-BB | .314 – 16th | Hit by MIL last time out, but I’m not sitting him |
| Charlie Morton | ATL | PHI | x | x | x | 3.19 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .352 – 4th | Hasn’t allowed more than 4 ER in a start since April |
| Logan Webb | SFG | ARI | x | x | x | 4.35 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 22% K-BB | .271 – 30th | A couple duds mixed in these L5, but still an easy start |
| Walker Buehler | LAD | SDP | x | x | x | 6.08 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 10% K-BB | .310 – 17th | A couple duds mixed in these L5, but still an easy start |
| Chris Sale | BOS | at BAL | x | x | x | 2.88 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 18% K-BB | .333 – 10th | Only has one bad start since returning in mid-Aug. |
| Aaron Civale | CLE | at KCR | x | x | x | 5.85 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .305 – 20th | Wildly inconsistent: 0, 5, 0, 1, 5, 0, 7 ER in his L7 |
| José Urquidy | HOU | TBR | x | x | x | 4.50 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .322 – 12th | Back up to 80ish pitches so he should be able to get 5+ IP |
| Marcus Stroman | NYM | MIA | x | x | x | 3.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .296 – 26th | Has allowed 3 ER in 12.7 IP v. MIA this yr |
| Brady Singer | KCR | CLE | x | x | x | 3.03 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .292 – 27th | One dud stains the L5 run, I’m in v. that CLE offense |
| Trevor Rogers | MIA | at NYM | x | x | 4.15 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .302 – 23rd | Has gone 5+ IP just once in L5 (his last start – 5.3 IP/10 K) | |
| Chris Bassitt | OAK | at SEA | x | x | 1.50 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 24% K-BB | .304 – 21st | 3 strong IP in return, but not be turned loose for 5+ IP | |
| Tyler Alexander | DET | at MIN | x | 3.20 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .307 – 27th | Remember when he went 7 IP/1 ER at TOR? That was fun | ||
| Luke Weaver | ARI | at SFG | x | 3.51 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .361 – 1st | This is risky bc of the Giants, but I’m open to it | ||
| Alec Mills | CHC | at PIT | x | 5.02 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 11% K-BB | .306 – 19th | The matchup is the only potential allure | ||
| Yusei Kikuchi | SEA | OAK | x | 5.03 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 8% K-BB | .316 – 15th | Has just 1 outing of 5 IP in his last 5 starts | ||
| A.J. Alexy | TEX | LAA | x | 5.00 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 0% K-BB | .281 – 29th | Seemingly locked into 85ish pitch outings, so 5 IP aren’t a lock | ||
| Mitch Keller | PIT | CHC | x | 5.00 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .338 – 6th | Might like the 3.32 ERA of his L4, but heed the 1.57 WHIP in that time | ||
| Kyle Freeland | COL | WAS | x | 5.79 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 10% K-BB | .336 – 8th | Does have a 3.91 ERA in 13 2H starts | ||
| Yu Darvish | SDP | LAD | x | 6.48 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 19% K-BB | .297 – 25th | Seems to pull the rug every time we think he’s right again | ||
| Michael Wacha | TBR | at HOU | x | 4.44 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 27% K-BB | .337 – 8th | Far too inconsistent to throw him against HOU | ||
| Bruce Zimmermann | BAL | BOS | 4.88 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .335 – 9th | He has gone 5+ IP in 4 straight (CWS, MIN, NYM, TBR) | |||
| Packy Naughton | LAA | at TEX | 5.03 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 2% K-BB | .264 – 29th | Matchup isn’t enough to entice me here | |||
| Reynaldo López | CWS | CIN | 4.84 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 18% K-BB | .322 – 13th | 4 HR and 9 R in last 2 GS have brought him back to earth | |||
| Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 | TOR | NYY | 10.07 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 18% K-BB | .298 – 25th | Brutal 2H (5.61 ERA in 12 GS) incl. three 7 ER outings | |||
| Jameson Taillon | NYY | at TOR | 7.01 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .361 – 2nd | #NeverToronto | |||
| Patrick Corbin | WAS | at COL | 5.16 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .318 – 15th | 3 QS in his L4 but no chance I’m throwing him in Coors | |||
| Trevor Williams | NYM | MIA | 3.68 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .296 – 26th | Stats are for L5 appearances (2 starts/3 relief) | |||
| Daniel Castano | MIA | at NYM | 5.19 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 4% K-BB | .302 – 23rd | Avg’ing <5 IP in his 4 MLB starts | |||
| Charlie Barnes | MIN | DET | 6.75 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 3% K-BB | .313 – 16th | Meager 11% K% plus low W probability saps appeal |
Tyler Anderson starting for Kikuchi today, but after last start (as a devastated fantasy owner) I would put him at the very bottom. The Reds are pretty good against lefties on the road too.