Starting Pitcher Chart – September 21st, 2022
by Paul Sporer
September 21, 2022
I started this in early-September last year and it seemed to be useful. The chart will include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
Let’s go secure some titles!
Wednesday’s Starters
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | L5 STATS | OPP wOBA L30 days | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Lynn | CWS | CLE | R | x | x | x | 1.11 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 27% K-BB | .294 – 22nd | Rewarding those who stuck it out |
| Triston McKenzie | CLE | at CWS | R | x | x | x | 2.93 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .311 – 12th | ERA jumped over 4 on 6/27 and since then has been 2.25 in 92 IP |
| Roansy Contreras | PIT | at NYY | R | x | x | x | 1.65 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 11% K-BB | .325 – 9th | Just don’t pitch to Judge, Roansy! |
| Robbie Ray | SEA | at OAK | L | x | x | x | 3.03 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 21% K-BB | .256 – 28th | 9 ER, 16 H in his L2, but no shot you’d sit him here |
| Kevin Gausman | TOR | at PHI | R | x | x | x | 5.40 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 27% K-BB | .339 – 3rd | Ugly 2.1 HR/9 in L5 doing most of the damage |
| Marcus Stroman | CHC | at MIA | R | x | x | x | 3.54 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8% K-BB | .281 – 30th | Riding a 2.95 ERA in the 2H |
| Jesús Luzardo | MIA | CHC | L | x | x | x | 4.30 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 13% K-BB | .285 – 23rd | Has gone 6+ IP 5 of his L6 |
| Bailey Ober | MIN | at KCR | R | x | x | x | 2nd start since June 1st | .295 – 21st | Threw 5 great IP (1 H, 1 BB, 5 Ks) upon return |
| Luis Severino | NYY | PIT | R | x | x | x | 1st start since mid-July | .292 – 25th | Got 3 rehab starts prior to this return (13 Ks, 1 BB in 10.3 IP) |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | HOU | at TBR | R | x | x | x | 2.83 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .313 – 11th | 3+ BB in 4 of L5 push the WHIP, but his 26% K rate definitely plays |
| Blake Snell | SDP | STL | L | x | x | x | 4.44 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 24% K-BB | .372 – 3rd | L5 highlights his volatility: 0, 2, 6, 0, 1, 5, 1 ER in L7 |
| Matt Manning | DET | at BAL | R | x | x | x | 3.86 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .301 – 18th | Has rebounded since 7 ER dud v. SEA w/a 2.08 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 12% K-BB in L3 |
| Miles Mikolas | STL | at SDP | R | x | x | x | 4.20 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 10% K-BB | .294 – 23rd | Has allowed 3-4 ER in 4 of L5, still a pretty easy start for me |
| Corey Kluber | TBR | HOU | R | x | x | 4.97 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .311 – 13th | Can only imagine how many tms were crushed by that 8 ER at NYY | |
| Zack Wheeler | PHI | TOR | R | x | x | 4.02 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 18% K-BB | .341 – 2nd | Will be limited so it’s a not a must-start if you need W/QS chances | |
| Dustin May | LAD | ARI | R | x | x | 3.46 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .330 – 7th | Rebounded after a couple duds v. SD | |
| Taijuan Walker | NYM | at MIL | R | x | x | 3.64 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .321 – 10th | Coming off B2B 7 IP gems | |
| Logan Webb | SFG | at COL | R | x | 2.63 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 18% K-BB | .349 – 5th (at Coors) | Solid in his 1 Coors start this yr (7 IP/3 ER), but I’m not averse to sitting | ||
| Bryce Elder | ATL | WAS | R | x | Only has 2 MLB GS since May 1st | .333 – 5th | 2 gems v. MIA since returning; could be a useful gamble, but WAS isn’t easy | ||
| Dane Dunning | TEX | LAA | R | x | 6.66 ERA, 1.91 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .303 – 17th | Has allowed a HR in 6 straight | ||
| Jordan Lyles | BAL | DET | R | x | 5.81 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .292 – 24th | Does have a 3.77 ERA at home, but w/a 1.49 WHIP so be careful! | ||
| Daniel Lynch | KCR | MIN | L | 7.71 ERA, 2.08 WHIP, 11% K-BB | .306 – 18th | Ran a 3.18 ERA for 8 GS (Jun-Aug) before falling apart in L5 | |||
| James Kaprielian | OAK | SEA | R | 5.84 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 0% K-BB | .310 – 15th | Four 2 ER outings in L4, but 8 ER in the other… so the downside is sharp | |||
| Josiah Gray | WAS | at ATL | R | 6.66 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 4% K-BB | .337 – 4th | Has a 3.0 HR/9 in his L13 starts | |||
| Adrian Houser | MIL | NYM | R | 5.40 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, -4% K-BB | .327 – 8th | Just too much downside to take on this risk | |||
| Germán Márquez | COL | SFG | R | 5.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .298 – 20th | 3 gems, 2 duds in L5… guess where the 2 duds occurred? | |||
| Chase Anderson | CIN | BOS | R | 2.31 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .342 – 1st | Just 2 H in 3 Sept. starts, but I’m betting against the .048 BABIP | |||
| Tucker Davidson | LAA | at TEX | L | 6.17 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 4% K-BB | .324 – 13th | It just hasn’t gone all that well w/LAA | |||
| Madison Bumgarner | ARI | at LAD | L | 8.28 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 5% K-BB | .387 – 1st | No | |||
| Connor Seabold | BOS | at CIN | R | 1st MLB work since mid-July | .292 – 16th | Longshot to reach 5 IP |
The Roansy ranking is bold.
Definitely carries some risk, but I love the talent! (Revenge game, too, lol)