Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – September 21st, 2022

Transcript is available!

1:12

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! Let’s talk some baseball!!

1:14

Davey Ping Pong: How would you order these guys in a Dynasty 12 Team Head to Head league: Adley Rutschman, Corbin Carroll, Gunnar Henderson, Josh Jung?

1:18

Paul Sporer: I think I’d go just as you’ve laid them out here! Adley is definitely my #1 and while Jung is last, it’s not because I don’t like him… I’m a huge fan!

1:18

Still not ready for fantasy football: Keep Megill over Stroman in a dynasty league?

1:21

Paul Sporer: Hmmm, I think I would, yes. Stro has had a good season, but he’s living on a wire and could easily be a low-to-mid 4.00s ERA guy without much skill degradation. Megill might be that, too, but at least it’ll come w/Ks and he does have major upside

1:22

Bobby: Would you keep Jose Siri at $10 in a 16 team dynasty (40 man roster/$400 cap)?

1:23

Paul Sporer: No, I think you throw him back and worst case buy him back at that same price. Has the speed and a little punch w/it, but that swing-and-miss is dangerous! (33% K, 17% SwStr)

1:26

Tommy Trade: In OBP roto keeper, I got a trade offer for Rasmussen, but have to hand over McCarthy or Yepez.  I guess which one are you parting with looking towards 2023.

1:27

Paul Sporer: While we do expect SBs to rise w/the enlarged bases, I still want to favor McCarthy bc of his speed so I’d do Yepez in that deal

1:27

Still not ready for fantasy football: I have to decide whether to extend Luis Robert this off-season.  I can keep him one year for $3 or extend for three more years at $18.  50% penalty for dropping an extended player.  Should I be concerned about his long term health after this year?

1:27

Paul Sporer: You should, but the upside & price still make it worth doing so

1:27

Kevin: where are you drafting Acuna next year? Anything to worry about long term?

1:28

Paul Sporer: More a mid-late 1st rounder for me, but I don’t think he’ll be there. Still going to be just 25 and did quite well coming off the ACL all things considered

1:28

Calvin from Pickering: Any low-end, under the radar SP’s you’d recommend to pickup for a couple good starts to end the season (W’s and K’s needed more than ratios).

1:29

Paul Sporer: Hit me with a handful of guys on your wire that you’re considering and I’ll give my thoughts. Otherwise, too hard to guess in the dark about who might be on your wire!

1:29

Mohamed Saleh: If I gave you control for one offseason move to happen not involving your favorite team? You basically get to choose where one of the upcoming free agents go and explain your decision.

1:32

Paul Sporer: Baltimore signing Carlos Rodón! Basically an analog for the Ray-to-SEA move. There have been the obvious comps of Baltimore to Seattle, just a year behind, which I totally agree with and they can just follow SEA’s blueprint by bringing in an ace-level arm to lead the young arms they cultivated plus Rodriguez/Hall. My jokey/half serious one is Brandon Drury to Colorado. I’m super grateful for his work in Cincy so I’d love for him to find another hitter-friendly park and pop off again!

1:34

Owen: Have CJ Cron at $13. Our league has only one bench spot. I don’t think I can use him for the last week on the road and I’m in a battle for first. But if I drop him then I lose him as a keeper and someone else will grab him and be able to keep him.

1:37

Paul Sporer: I agree w/moving on from Rockies after this wk as they finish completely on the road (at SF 3, at LAD 6) and it’s tough to cut Cron, but if it’s the best move for the title, I stand by it. Keepers are important, but this isn’t some 23 yr old middle infielder, it’s a 33 yr old journeyman 1B. Yes, he will be in COL again next year, but I’m willing to make the best moves to win the title even if it hampers my next season

1:37

Kate: What kind of odds do you think Baty has of winning the 3B job in NY our of Spring Training next year?

1:38

Paul Sporer: Pretty decent IMO. They brought him up essentially from AA (6 gms at AAA) and there isn’t a robust 3B FA class so outside of a trade, I’d say he has a decent track on the gig

1:44

Paul Sporer: –sorry for the delay, was making my lunch and accidentally made a mess in the kitchen lol–

1:46

Kyle: Justin’s two teams are in the 3rd and 17th percentile in the Main Event – woof! Has he talked about it at all? What do you think he did wrong? He seems to have trouble in those leagues each year.

1:46

Paul Sporer: That was actually discussed on the latest pod! Justin is always open about his leagues

1:47

Still not ready for fantasy football: Start Wander Franco, Gunnar Henderson or Oneil Cruz at SS next year?  10 team points

1:47

Paul Sporer: Wander by a mile

1:47

Kyle: Looks like your NFBC Main Event team is in the middle of the pack currently. However, you did have a lot of great WW pickups – Kyle Wright, Jeffrey Springs, Drury, Felix Bautista. It looks like BA, saves, and the lack of SP depth killed your team. What do you think?

1:49

Paul Sporer: I spent a few weeks running 9 SPs bc of where W/K/SV standings have been. I was 2nd on Sunday, so it really just depends what day you look (T.Wells & Gibson have started my week horribly). Forcing Ks can hit the ratios and it has, but I didn’t feel too weak w/SPs because of finds like Springs & Wright covering for Ian Anderson & then Kopech down the stretch. The AVG was the consistent weakness. Even if I don’t land in the money, I feel very good about how I managed this team and kept it competitive all year

1:49

Kate: Picked up Singer off the wire in my 15 team dynasty this year right before he got added back into the rotation and he’s gone a long way in helping me stay in 1st place, but long term I’m worried about how much contact he allows.  I was surprised how upbeat and you Justin sounded about him on the pod the other week.  Is there maybe more downside here than people are thinking?

1:57

Paul Sporer: It’s only a league avg contact rate (well, 1 pt above at 79%) and primarily on the ground, so I’m not super worried about, especially bc he also plays in a pitcher-friendly park. I buy the big BB% drop and while I’d love to see a better SwStr, I think he could definitely grow there as he enters his age-26 season. This is just the beginning for him and I’m a big fan!

1:57

Kwanbelievable: When looking ahead to drafting for next season, am I crazy for thinking Cleveland hitters as a whole benefit most from the pickoff/base enlargement changes? 5 guys with >15 SB this season, I almost want to pencil all of them in for 25 next year

1:59

Paul Sporer: Could totally see them taking major advantage of it! Don’t sleep on Naylor dropping 8-10 of his own with a nice power season (25+ HRs). Cleveland all of sudden has some real hitters to go for in drafts instead of just Jose Ramirez (and Franmil Reyes coming into the season, though that flopped)

1:59

Kate: Drey Jameson looking pretty good in his couple MLB start so far.  How much of his struggles at AAA do you think were just PCL / park related?  Obviously that’s not everything, but he wouldn’t be the first arm we’ve seen completely turn it around after leaving that league.

2:00

Paul Sporer: It’s *a lot* of it, IMO. Same with Ryne Nelson for the DBacks. Pretty awesome to see him dice up a couple premium teams, too!

2:00

Ted: Got a few keeper decisions coming up, so curious to get your confidence level on Gilbert and Roansy heading into ’23. Obviously hard to say with any sort of certainty, but is there anything in their profiles that gives you more (or less) confidence about their long-term prospects?

2:05

Paul Sporer: I’m a big time Gilbert stan and think this is just the beginning for his excellence. I’m in on Roansy, too! This might not be super fair, but Roansy being on the Pirates is probably my biggest concern. Not saying they can’t maximize him, but we gotta see them develop some guys before trusting that they can fully cultivate talent they bring up

2:05

Bradley: Can we realistically keep Soto at round value (I know this sounds crazy)? Can only keep 3 and keeping Framber for 5th or Swanson for 6th is better value (Have JRam at 1st and Strider at 14th, so Soto would be a 2nd)

2:07

Paul Sporer: I’m still fully in on Soto and I know I would go JRam/Soto/Strider, but I can’t say that pivoting to Framber or Swanson is inherently bad or wrong. If you’re not as keen on Soto and don’t want to pay full freight, throw him back, take a different keeper and then maybe you get him back in the draft!

2:08

Salty: Paul – going to have a difficult Steven Kwan keeper question next year.  Considering his OBP ability, 11 2nd half SBs and the larger bases, do you think he can become a consistent 90-100 run/25-30 SB guy over the next few years?

2:11

Paul Sporer: That is definitely the upside, while the projection would reside around 85-90 R/15-20 SB. I looove that he controls the strike zone as well as he does so while he doesn’t have punch, he hasn’t had that aspect of his game taken away because pitchers will still be careful with him. Faster Luis Arraez!

2:12

Yowza: Think Joey Meneses is a legit MLB hitter?  O/U 400 PA and .330 wOBA in 2023?

2:15

Paul Sporer: Probably not, tbh. This year’s Frank Schwindel is just too easy a comparison right down to my low expectations for next year. I think there is some punch to the bat, but I don’t think they carve out a gtd 400 PA for the 31 yr old. The upside is that he won’t be expensive. In fact, might even be cheaper than Schwindel bc of how poorly that went this year, so while I don’t have super high hopes for him, he likely can’t hurt you too much if you want to invest for 2023

2:15

Kate: Mess in the kitchen?  You have a dog Paul, put Char to work on cleanup!

2:15

Paul Sporer: It was soup!! She got some of it, but I thought it’d be too hot for her to lap it all up lol

2:15

Salty: With the change in shifting rules, do you think that will hinder high GB% pitchers, with more of those potentially finding holes now?

2:20

Paul Sporer: Not necessarily. It will still come down to the defense behind them in a lot of cases. Maybe a righty GBer who has been pretty successful vL could be seen as a regression candidate w/those extra 1Bs going through, but I’m not making wholesale changes to anything bc of the shift ban just yet

2:21

Ben: Gurriel (TOR) about to activated.  Must drop someone.  Drop Gurriel, Pham, Carroll?  Redraft format.  SBs and OBP are tightest categories.

2:23

Paul Sporer: I think I’d dump Pham. Just hasn’t done much in Boston and they just don’t run (26th in SBs).

2:24

Robocop: I can keep Judge for $40 in a 12 team std roto league with 5 keeps per team (+$4 per keeper every year for 5yr, bought Judge for $36 this year). I sold the farm this summer trying to win, so I have mostly just mediocre keeper options left…Judge worth the keep?

2:24

Paul Sporer: Yes, he’d go for like $55-60 I’d imagine, if not more depending on where your auction inflation sits

2:24

Jono: What kind of soup??

2:24

Paul Sporer: Just some standard chicken noodle, nothing too crazy

2:24

Not Frank: Frank Zinkie had a piece out on Yahoo 2 days ago that was great and worth a read. His thoughts on the changes going into effect next year are very interesting. It’s called Baseball Lessons Learned…

2:25

Paul Sporer: Fred* and he’s the man!

2:25

Jung Bong Jovi: No question.  I just want to express my frustration at having to start Webb and Darvish in Colorado during the first round of the playoffs.

2:26

Paul Sporer: Painnn. The Rodon folks had to almost be happy about the blister pushing him out of Coors and to a game v. ARI (they can’t hit vL)

2:26

Sean: Jake mccarthy starting to get figured out by pitchers? Natural regression? Would you scoop back up for next week?

2:31

Paul Sporer: Mostly regression, plus 6 lefties in the L10. While they only 5 gms next week, it is slated to be all righties so yes I’d get him back

2:31

Pedro: I like Singer a lot also.  Would you keep him at $13 in an AL only 5 by 5 league? Thanks

2:32

Paul Sporer: I would, yes!

2:32

Mike: Surprised you dont have may going in 10s in your column today and below some other lesser names. Assuming in part due to ARI being tough v R recently and may’s recent hiccups?

2:33

Paul Sporer: The former for sure. Just wanted to leave it open that he could be sat if you’re protecting (and that includes 12s or 15s, too, but I usually leave the 10 open to connote “hey this isn’t CRAZY MUSTTTT START”) so that was my aim w/May! By & large I’m taking the shot, but if a bomb (5+ ER) would kill you, you can certainly pass

2:33

Mia: I’m in the race for the roto championship in my 15 teamer. I spend WAY too much time worrying that someone I drop can be picked up by a team I’m dueling and help them in a cat or two. The mental chess of Roto is…a lot of fun

2:34

Paul Sporer: I totally hear that!! Last year when I was securing my Main Event title and this year scrapping and fighting for a money spot have been the most intense fantasy baseballing I’ve ever done!!! Good luck!

2:34

binyourbonnet: Bello seems to have found some success in his last 3-4 starts. Does he become a sneaky sleeper or is it too loud for his price?

2:35

Paul Sporer: No I think he will hold legit sleeper status. It wasn’t too showy to put him in that “wide awake sleeper” range which I made up to just mean someone who is on every sleeper list & thus not really a sleeper! I think Bello will have his proponents, but not be endlessly discussed this offseason

2:36

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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rustydudemember
14 days ago

The 2022 Meneses comparison to 2021 Schwindel seems a little lazy. Yes, their contact and barrel rates are similar but Meneses hits the ball harder – higher EV & MaxEV. You see this on all the hard hit singles he gets. It also shows up in historical babip where Meneses consistently had higher rates than Schwindel got in his minor league career. So while Schwindel’s 2021 babip of .350 was bound to regress badly, Meneses has a chance of keeping his above .300 in the future.

Also, Meneses’ chase rate is average instead of bad, as it was for Schwindel.

rustydudemember
13 days ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

Schwindel’s 2021 o-swing% was 38% last year, not 34%, and you rounded Meneses’ rate up from 33.5%. To me that’s a pretty big difference.

That said, your other points are alright. I just believe Meneses will project better than what we saw with Schwindel due to the points I made above. I think everyone can agree that he won’t put up these same rates but then he doesn’t need to for what he’s going to cost.