Starting Pitcher Chart – September 10th, 2021
With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.
Let me know what y’all think about this. Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. I’m still marinating on ideas for the weekend as I won’t be able to commit to separate Saturday & Sunday ones due to time.
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | 10 | 12 | 15+ | L5 STATS | OPP wOBA L30 days | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Ray | TOR | at BAL | x | x | x | 1.51 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 36% K-BB | .290 – 23rd | Has allowed >3 ER just once in L18 starts |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAA | at HOU | x | x | x | 2.81 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 25% K-BB | .328 – 6th | SP work is overlooked bc of elite bat |
| Framber Valdez | HOU | LAA | x | x | x | 2.76 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .284 – 26th | Has reached 6 IP in each of L5 |
| Tyler Mahle | CIN | at STL | x | x | x | 3.64 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 20% K-BB | .303 – 21st | Hasn’t allowed >2 ER in 3 starts v. STL |
| Julio Urías | LAD | SDP | x | x | x | 1.69 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 20% K-BB | .259 – 30th | MLB-best 16 Ws fueling his top 10 SP season |
| Joe Musgrove | SDP | at LAD | x | x | x | 2.87 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 20% K-BB | .288 – 27th | ERA hasn’t gone above 3.14 at any pt this yr |
| Carlos Rodón | CWS | BOS | x | x | x | 3.52 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 22% K-BB | .342 – 11th | Hasn’t gone >5 IP since July 18th |
| Tanner Houck | BOS | at CWS | x | x | x | 4.13 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 21% K-BB | .325 – 10th | 0 W as SP bc they manage his IP so tightly |
| Ian Anderson | ATL | MIA | x | x | x | 4.30 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, -6% K-BB | .276 – 30th | 0 Ks in 8.7 IP since the ASB |
| Trevor Rogers | MIA | at ATL | x | x | x | 4.09 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .345 – 9th | Standout LH from 1H has been hurt for 2H |
| Glenn Otto | TEX | at OAK | x | x | x | 1.86 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 28% K-BB | .327 – 7th | Interesting RHP looking nice early on |
| Josiah Gray | WAS | at PIT | x | x | 6.84 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .286 – 28th | Great matchup, can he curb the severe HR9? | |
| Germán Márquez | COL | at PHI | x | x | 7.77 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 13% K-BB | .311 – 18th | Rough stretch incl. 3 road starts | |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | at NYM | x | x | 2.13 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 11% K-BB | .294 – 22nd | K% down 4 pts to 21% in 8 2H starts | |
| Marco Gonzales | SEA | ARI | x | x | 3.06 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .342 – 10th | Has allowed <=3 ER in 15 of 20 starts | |
| Tylor Megill | NYM | NYY | x | x | 5.96 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 21% K-BB | .334 – 4th | 4 HR outing v SF inflating the L5 numbers | |
| Michael Wacha | TBR | at DET | x | 6.39 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 2% K-BB | .299 – 24th | Downside is severe, be careful | ||
| Madison Bumgarner | ARI | at SEA | x | 4.83 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 8% K-BB | .300 – 20th | 3 straight duds after 7 gems from 7/16-8/19 | ||
| Adrian Houser | MIL | at CLE | x | 1.88 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .312 – 17th | ShO v. STL doing a lot of work on L5 stats | ||
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | TEX | x | 4.12 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .323 – 12th | Only has 4 MLB starts on the season | ||
| Eli Morgan | CLE | MIL | 4.30 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 11% K-BB | .356 – 2nd | Sub-5 IP in 3 of L5; watch out here | |||
| Matthew Boyd | DET | TBR | 5.14 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .398 – 1st | Only two 4-IP starts since return from IL | |||
| Jon Lester | STL | CIN | 2.70 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 2% K-BB | .286 – 25th | WHIP tamps down hype on L5 ERA | |||
| Griffin Jax | MIN | KCR | 8.20 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 11% K-BB | .295 – 25th | Nothing to see here | |||
| Daniel Lynch | KCR | at MIN | 4.50 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 6% K-BB | .276 – 29th | Solid 3.35 ERA in 43 IP since late-July recall | |||
| Steven Brault | PIT | WAS | 6.23 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .324 – 11th | Not enough upside to gamble on | |||
| Chris Ellis | BAL | TOR | 2.16 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .339 – 3rd | Skills don’t match ERA thru first 4 MLB app. |
SF @ CHC in 2 hours, thoughts on Hendricks today? Has he been so bad he doesn’t make the list (kidding… mostly)?
Is he droppable in 15 team?
No chance I’m starting him v. SF and I’m OK to cut him in 15s if someone on the wire strikes your fancy