Ottoneu Hot Right Now: Most Auctioned Players

Things either slow down or heat up this time of year, depending on your league. In playoff leagues, action can be fast and furious, as the remaining teams scramble for streamers, fill-ins and generally anyone who can throw points up on the board. In year-long leagues, sellers have already targeted the most interesting prospects, some teams may have checked out, and the teams at the top may not need to jockey for position much.

But there are still some interesting names popping up in auctions right now, and the four with the most live auctions – Josh Lowe, Frank Schwindel, A.J. Alexy, and Eric Lauer – worth taking a look at before you have to make a call on them in the next 48 hours.

Josh Lowe
Bit of a spoiler, but of the four names here, he is the one I am most excited about. Having jettisoned Nate Lowe and firmly established Brandon Lowe, the Rays are onto their third Lowe, and this one has put up a 2021 worth getting excited about. In 412 Triple-A plate appearances, he has a 138 wRC+ that features solid on-base skills (.369 OBP) and power (.257 ISO) which are basically the calling cards of a good Ottoneu bat. The power was the really exciting piece for me this year. In 2019, he hit 18 HR in 519 PA with a .190 ISO, representing a legitimate breakout for a guy who was already a solid offensive player. Following that up with 21 HR in fewer PA and a higher ISO is a big deal.

He is already rostered in more than 72% of leagues, so he may not be available for you (he is rostered in all but one of my leagues), but if an auction is going on now, he is easily worth a bid of a few dollars, with a couple of caveats: first, I think there is a good chance he doesn’t help you much this year. His call up came when Randy Arozarena went on paternity leave, and he is expected back this weekend. With Kevin Kiermaier, Manuel Margot, Austin Meadows, Jordan Luplow, and Arozarena on the roster, there really isn’t a ton of room for Lowe to carve out much playing time. He may be back in the minors soon. Second, Lowe is a left-handed bat and may find himself platooning if and when he does play. As a lefty, that might not hurt a ton, but in his one start so far, he got two PA vs. righties and then was pulled for a PH when lefty Josh Taylor came in from the pen. If he keeps hitting 8th and getting pulled for PH, at two or even three PA per game, he just can’t do enough damage to be that valuable. But if you are looking towards 2022 or have space to stash him? He’s definitely interesting.

Frank Schwindel
Unheralded players who go on power tears are always fun and Schwindel is definitely that. He’s 29 years old and his MLB experience before this year was all of 15 plate appearances with Kansas City in 2019. Then from August 29 to September 5, he his six home runs across seven games, contributing to a very fun 161 wRC+ in 161 PA. Lest you think Schwindel is a one week wonder, he had a 142 wRC+ in 117 PA prior to that stretch.

So why aren’t I bidding on Schwindel? He’s a 1B, which immediately limits his value. There are few leagues where I don’t have two or three 1B either on my roster or available as FA that I like more. I don’t trust him enough to start him except maybe when other guys have off-days. He’s also got that weird long minor league track record and I just find it hard to believe that he can sustain this level of performance but that no one in Kansas City, Detroit, Oakland, or Chicago noticed it until now. Maybe I am missing something – it has happened before – but this feels more like a Yermin Mercedes-type story than a Max Muncy-type story, at least for now. Even Muncy was up and getting real playing time at 25. and was a regular by 27.

At some point, I’ll look deeper at Schwindel, but I am holding off for now.

A.J. Alexy
The simple story here is that a pitcher with a high walk rate (13.2%) and a low ground ball rate (19.0%) getting away with a HR/FB rate of 0.0% just simply can’t sustain this kind of performance, regardless of the solid strikeout rate (28.9%). The .091 BABIP doesn’t seem that enticing, either. That’s all only in 11 MLB innings, but when you turn to the minors, things don’t look much better.

He threw 65 innings across Double- and Triple-A this year, with the same walk issues and xFIPs over 4.30. I find it far more likely that the BABIP and HR/FB rate will regress badly than I do that he turned a corner and is this much better in MLB than he was in the minors. He’s only 23 and has shown progress with his control and the strikeouts are legit, but he is more of a project than anything right now. Would I consider streaming him if I needed a playoff pitcher and he had a soft matchup at home? Yeah, I would. But that’s about as far as I would go.

Eric Lauer
Lauer has a sub-2.00 ERA since August 1, and I am sure that is attracting a lot of attention. From an Ottoneu perspective, that stretch is 32 innings and 176.8 points, for 5.53 P/IP. That is some great, great stuff. And it’s hard not to get excited about a Brewers pitcher breaking out, given what they have done the last few years.

However, he also has a 5.6% HR/FB rate over that stretch, leaving him with a 4.37 xFIP. The problem is that he lacks strikeouts (7.59 K/9 over that stretch) giving him no margin of error if he does start allowing HR. The good thing is that even if you doubled that HR/FB rate, he would still be over 4.5 P/IP over that stretch and he is at 4.35 P/IP for the season. I don’t think we are seeing Lauer joining the ranks of Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta as Milwaukee success stories, but I do think he is a solid SP who can do enough to help you out as long as he isn’t giving up the long ball.

He faces Detroit next week, and I might gamble on that start and see where we go from there. Just keep in mind that the upside is limited (he isn’t going to pile up 12 Ks in a start) and that he doesn’t have the juice to overcome a two-HR performance, so you are taking a risk by using him.





A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's writes for RotoGraphs and PitcherList, and can be heard on the ottobot podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @chadyoung.

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