Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – August 19th, 2026

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, thanks for coming out!! We’ve got some day baseball and a Tigers lead!

duckboathopeful: Hi Paul, thanks for doing these! I’m in a redraft points league; going forward, do you have more faith in Perdomo or Muncy? No posititional concerns as I have McGonigle.

Paul Sporer: Muncy lean for sure!

dirtypuer: Hi Paul! I’m in a H2H Cat league with OBP and SLG. I’ve held out hope for Cal the entire year, but I’m wondering if you’d jump ship for Alvarez/Stephenson/Ruiz

Paul Sporer: I’d move off Cal at this point. You gave it long enough and I can’t see any reason to believe a good streak is in the offing. I’d prioritize Stephenson among that group.

Woody1937: Love me some daysball

Paul Sporer: It’s just the best!

Craig Ackerman: 13 team roto 4 of 1 u Conine, tawa, veen, j Báez, and Langford. R Greene an Anthony coming back. Drop 2

Paul Sporer: Tawa and Baez

crew87: are we seeing the Griffin Conine breakout?

Paul Sporer: He looks fantastic, absolutely tearing the cover off the ball. It’s reminding me of 2025 Stowers in that I believe what we’re seeing right now, but not necessarily sure he lives at this level now. It’s the best of what Conine can deliver w/these skills in that he’s hitting the ball hard enough to outrun his Ks comfortable.

But will he maintain a 33% HR/FB or 17% Barrel rate for a full year in 2027? Doubtful. First off, no one hits HRs at that kinda clip (31% from Wood was the league high last yr) and 17%+ Barrel rates are pretty rare, too, with just 12 qualified hitters at that level last year.

Kevin: would you drop Naylor for CES, Eldridge, or Vinnie P if you’re good on Steals?

Paul Sporer: Ya gimme Eldridge in that case. Here’s a little leaderboard of the group since June 1st.

Joe Savarese: Jobe ends his day with a K–Impressive today..

Paul Sporer: Strong rebound after the Dud v. CHW. Classic TJ returner – elite one start, brutal the next, and right back to solid in the 3rd. The bulk of that White Sox start was 1 bad inning, too, not like he was getting smoked throughout. Can’t promise there won’t be another Dud or two, but hard to keep him outta the rotation in just about any format.

AU86: Paul – Would you pick up Smith-Shawver in redraft using QS and K/9?  Would be dropping Quantrill.  Thanks

Paul Sporer: Ya that’s like a ceiling-for-floor move. Cal, for his part, has been wonderful of late with a 2.73 ERA/0.91 WHIP in his last 46.3 IP but just a 12% K-BB doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence that he’ll stay this good. AJSS has shown a lot more bat-missing potential to where he could easily eclipse Cal’s output

MFG: In a dogfight to win my league for the first time since 2004, in first place by a single point. Trade deadline has passed, out of FAAB, completing raw dogging the last 6 weeks. Roto is not for the faint of heart, I tell ya.

Paul Sporer: It’s really not!! It’s so hard not to get down when you see your team like 1-for-24 an hour into games, too. I love the sweat of it, though. I know some prefer to just check the numbers when it’s all said & done, but I like the ups & downs of following games throughout the night

Paul Sporer: Good luck hanging on!! Any big FAAB guys you landed that you make feel better about being at $0 rn? BTW, can you make $0 bids or are you fully raw dogging and stuck w/just whoever you have right now?

Peter Castro: Is Esmerlyn Valdez cooked? Debating on his keeper status for next season.

Paul Sporer: “Cooked” feels unfair but this was always an Aristides Aquino-type beat (complete with a great nickname!!) with that K% looming overhead (36%). The league adjusted and now he’s got to adjust back. We’ve seen some true studs push it where they can not only survive, but thrive with a low-30s% K rate. And still, 36% is a different story. He might just be this guardrail-to-guardrail kind of guy who is dialed in for 2-3 wks at a time and then unusably bad for another 2-3 after that.

Of course, he can always go off at any moment with a multi-HR game so it’s hard to bench him during the cold snaps just in case. He’s now gone 21 gms since his last HR with a .174/.330/.246 slash that does include a 33% K but also an 18% BB. So no, not cooked, he’s shown enough power and plate patience to believe he will be more than just his earlier hot streak, but the lows can get pretty low.

InsertWittyNameHere: I think I made the worst fantasy trade of all time non-collusion division.  I traded Cris Sanchez and Mason Miller for Soto and Riley Greene the day before Soto went on his recent IL stint.  I generally say no one cares and my fantasy team, but that seriously has to be one of the worst that could happen, no?

Paul Sporer: Omg that is bruuuutal timing. Totally fine move when all are healthy, but now you holding two busted hitters while your former pitchers continue to cook is really rough. 🫂

Mike: Whats going on with Bryce Miller? its feeling hard to justify keeping him on the roster in 12s with the fantasy playoffs looming

Paul Sporer: He suffers the home/road fate of his teammates with a sharp split, but even that has been tested lately as his L3 at home haven’t been able to make up for his 4 straight road Duds. He has a 4.50 ERA in the three home starts and he basically has to be sub-3.00 at home to sustain his road work. Looking beyond the surface of ERA, his Ks have evaporated of late, home and away. He has just a 15% K in his last 6, half what we saw in his first 9 starts.

Digging deeper, I’m not finding a smoking gun. His swinging strike rate is down 4 pts to just 10%, but I’m not finding the why behind that. Everything seems a bit worse as opposed to one thing we can point to and say THIS is the problem. Given his extensive injury issues, it’s hard not to think of that when he’s struggling, too. The velo is fine so any potential injury isn’t showing that way, but that’s only indicator. It’s not guaranteed that an injured guy will lose velo. Putting it into action, we have v. CHC this wk that I’ll go with in medium/deep….

Paul Sporer: …but a bad start here, really puts him in peril for at TOR next week and might even facilitate some shallower league cuts.

AGC: Is EDiaz really hurt?

Paul Sporer: Seems likely with the struggles. I don’t think this is a phantom “clear your head” sort of IL stint. Velo down, not nearly as dominant, just very clearly not himself which suggests he’s just not back to 100%.

nrbg27: Hi Paul — Would you drop Bryce Miller or Bradish for Freddy Peralta, Clay Holmes, Jackson Jobe,  Joe Musgrove, or Christian Scott? 12 team H2H redraft playoff run.

Paul Sporer: Really depends on matchups, so I’d check those, but Clay Holmes is my favorite of the FA group. And I’d be ok to go for him over Miller even before we see Miller v. CHC this weekend

Paul Sporer: Musgrove is a fun wildcard to consider, but I can’t see him over Holmes and I certainly wouldn’t cut Bradish for him

Joe Savarese: If DD dont heat up–the Tigers will be playing golf in Oct–thx for the chat..

Paul Sporer: This pen stinks even if Dingler gets back on track. I enjoyed Foolish Baseball’s video on the Tigers yesterday – – but I simply don’t agree that it’s actually a good pen in the first place, with only ERA cited to suggest it is. Hinch simply hasn’t any true firemen emerge, so it’s always been a high wire act. He seemed to press every right button from 2024-25 to get the most out of the flawed pen, but Scott Harris has done nothing to improve the guys he can turn to once the starters are out.

I’m not saying go get Edwin Diaz type deals, very much against that, but more activity on the wire and smaller trades for high upside arms just haven’t happened enough to help Hinch out. They just don’t have the bat missers you need have true confidence in your late innings.

NicklePickers: Bradish or Kirby? Is it just match ups?

Paul Sporer: Yes, i’m a Kirby fanboy, but I can’t ignore how far he’s fallen against expectations. He was supposed to be bankable WHIP and a 1.31 just isn’t cutting it. Bradish gets the smal short-term edge w/hobble NYY and then at STL next while Kirby gets at MIL and v. PHI. PHI’s wOBA finally starting to creep up the board. They’ve been bottom 10 so much of the year despite regular outbursts and superstars who scare you and now they’re up to 18 on the season, including 7 over the last month

Ragbrai: If and when Wood comes back do I drop Winn or Robert in a NL 5×5?

Paul Sporer: I lean toward holding Wnn & cutting Robert

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta head out. I appreciate y’all coming out. Keep grinding! With football creeping, other managers might start to get distracted and those who stay dialed in can keep working their way up the standings! Obviously your actual standings will determine how realistic any run is, but let this the first of many reminders that the rate stats can move a lot more than many believe in the final stretch. The conventional wisdom is that AVG/ERA/WHIP will be too tough to move as the AB/IP pile up, but oftentimes the standings are super tight which allows plenty of movement even outside of the one-in-a-million runs where your team hits .400 for a week. Take care, everyone