Starting Pitcher Chart – April 6th

In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it!
Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. At the outset, I will put their 2022 stats along with the note. The opponent wOBA will remain blank – or rather just not be included in the chart – for a while until we get some data (7-10 days at least) and because there is so much lineup turnover year-to-year, I’m not going to include last year’s mark.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. These are for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto and then you can mentally widen the range for H2H formats.
Several games have already been postponed due to inclement weather pounding the East and Midwest, making an already-light Thursday very tiny after a near-full Wednesday!
PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | LAST YR STATS | NOTE |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spencer Strider | ATL | SDP | R | x | x | x | 2.67 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 30% K-BB | Overall #1 SP upside if he pitches 160+ IP |
Kevin Gausman | TOR | at KCR | R | x | x | x | 3.35 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 24% K-BB | His BABIP will be a major focus early on after last yr’s .363 mark |
Lance Lynn | CWS | SFG | R | x | x | x | 3.99 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 21% K-BB | Uncharacteristic 4 BB in his debut; safe bet to rebound w/6% BB since ’19 |
Chris Sale | BOS | at DET | L | x | x | x | 3.18 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 16% K-BB | Ugly debut but can’t sit him in DET |
Blake Snell | SDP | at ATL | L | x | x | x | 3.38 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 22% K-BB | 9 K/1 BB in debut, but .545 BABIP got him run after 4.3 IP |
Dustin May | LAD | at ARI | R | x | x | x | 4.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 12% K-BB | Well removed from TJ, can he pick up where ’21 start left off? |
Alex Wood | SFG | at CWS | L | x | x | x | 5.10 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 18% K-BB | Health & defensive support will be primary factors to his success |
Spencer Turnbull | DET | BOS | R | DNP | Brutal season opener (7 ER) & BOS not the best matchup to get right | |||
Merrill Kelly 켈리 | ARI | LAD | R | 3.37 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 14% K-BB | Had a 2.71 ERA in 176 IP if you removed his LAD gms; career 5.64 ERA v. them | |||
Kyle Freeland | COL | WAS | L | 4.53 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 10% K-BB | 6.00 ERA/1.52 WHIP at home last yr | |||
Jordan Lyles | KCR | TOR | R | 4.42 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 12% K-BB | Solid debut v. MIN despite just 2 Ks, downside is just so severe | |||
Josiah Gray | WAS | at COL | R | 5.02 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 14% K-BB | “Led” MLB w/38 HR last yr & opened up allowing 3 v. ATL… Coors could be wild |
Personally I would sit Lynn and start Freeland instead
I might pick up Junis in hopes of like 4 or so scoreless mop up innings
I agree with this as well