Starting Pitcher Chart – April 26th

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it!

Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts (for the first few weeks, it’ll be their 2023 stats), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. The opponent wOBA will remain blank for a while until we get some data and because there is so much lineup turnover year-to-year, I’m not going to include last year’s mark. I’ll start including wOBA data on April 17th.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Trying something new by splitting up the data a bit with the recos & comments in one chart and the recos and stats in another. Let me know if that’s preferable to putting it all in one. I decided this after writing it, but for the future this could give me a bit more space for deeper comments, too. At any rate, I’m open to any feedback even if it’s constructive criticism!

Wednesday, April 26th Starter Notes
RK PITCHER TM OPP THR 10 12 15+ NOTE
1 Zac Gallen ARI KCR R x x x Picking up right where 2022 left off
2 Sandy Alcantara MIA at ATL R x x x 1 great, 1 bad, 2 meh; 9 Ks last time out & a 14% SwStr on the season, I think he’ll be fine
3 Bryce Elder ATL MIA R x x x Schedule hasn’t been a cakewalk (at STL, v. HOU) so a gem here spikes the confidence in next wk’s 2-step at NYM/v.BAL
4 Freddy Peralta MIL DET R x x x Running a career-low 10% SwStr, but there’s still no world where I’m sitting him
5 Kodai Senga NYM at WSN R x x x 15% BB & 2.1 HR will catch up to him & could come against any opponent, but I have a hard time sitting him w/the upside
6 Logan Gilbert SEA at PHI R x x x Big test for the 26-yr old stud…he was pushed a day for an unknown reason
7 Patrick Sandoval LAA OAK L x x x BB make him maddening regardless of opponent, but I’m going to keep starting him bc he’s still good when on
8 Tanner Bibee CLE COL R x x x Big-time prospect slated for his debut; listen to my thoughts on him here
9 Anthony DeSclafani SFG STL R x x x He’s good when he’s healthy as evidenced by several solid seasons; team streamer in 10s
10 Steven Matz STL at SFG L x x x He’s a streamer… you stream v. the 29th ranked offense, just remember streams are never risk-free
11 Tanner Houck BOS at BAL R x x x Velo is only 0.7 off the 94.8 mph he had 4 GS last yr; has gone 90+ pitches in L2
12 Drew Smyly CHC SDP L x x Talent isn’t the question, it’s always health: 16% K-BB in 282 IP since 2020
13 Tyler Wells BAL BOS R x x A worthy stream, but comes w/risk & could look like the NYY start (6 IP/4 ER/6 K)
14 Germán Márquez COL at CLE R x x I’m back to starting him on the road; MIL at home up next, but then a trip to PIT (they’re doing well, but I’ll likely still go for it if these next 2 aren’t duds)
15 Domingo Germán NYY at MIN R x x HRs put him at a risk every time out; allowed 2 HR in ea. of the 4 ER starts
16 Graham Ashcraft CIN TEX R x Results are there, but skills are lagging (4.49 SIERA)
17 Kenta Maeda MIN NYY R x Left early after taking a batted ball to the leg
18 Jon Gray TEX at CIN R x Has 8 K/9 BB in 3 GS since opening gem; still nervous in Coors Lite even after Perez’s strong start (6.3 IP/1 UER)
19 MacKenzie Gore WSN at NYM L x 16% BB needs to come down, but there are elements here for a breakout… keep tabs on him in shallower formats
20 Tony Gonsolin LAD at PIT R x 1st start of the season coming off 3 IP/57-pitch rehab; might only be 4 IP & PIT is spry
21 Taijuan Walker PHI SEA R x A matchup play and I’m not thrilled with this one… be careful
22 Yusei Kikuchi TOR CHW L x Career-high 95.5 mph, but his 2.5 HR comes from at least 1 HR in every gm
23 Hunter Brown HOU at TBR R Love the symmetry of his 2 7 IP/0 ER & 2 4.7 IP/4 ER; not worth the risk here
24 Luis Medina OAK at LAA R Massive BB issues make it tough to start blindly; has the stuff to impress on a given night, but will likely frustrate more than not
25 Michael Lorenzen DET at MIL R On my radar, but 9% SwStr doesn’t match 26% K… hits 15-tm pickup list w/a gem here
26 Michael Kopech CHW at TOR R 3+ BB in all 4 starts… he’s a viable cut everywhere if you’ve got a target in mind
27 Michael Wacha SDP at CHC R He’s a 15+ tm streamer, he’ll probably be cycled around the league all summer
28 Roansy Contreras PIT LAD R 7 of 11 ER v. HOU, he’s going to be super volatile and occasionally stud out v. good tms, but I still think he’s a matchup play for now
29 Ryan Yarbrough KCR at ARI L Absolutely not
30 Calvin Faucher TBR HOU R Josh Fleming will follow & neither have any fantasy relevance here
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

 

Wednesday, April 26th Starter Stats
RK PITCHER TM OPP THR 10 12 15+ IP ERA WHIP K-BB OPP L30 wOBA wOBA RK
1 Zac Gallen ARI KCR R x x x 31.1 2.59 0.80 29% 0.275 29th
2 Sandy Alcantara MIA at ATL R x x x 24.2 5.47 1.14 14% 0.346 6th
3 Bryce Elder ATL MIA R x x x 23.2 1.14 1.18 17% 0.303 24th
4 Freddy Peralta MIL DET R x x x 22.2 3.97 1.28 14% 0.275 28th
5 Kodai Senga NYM at WSN R x x x 21 4.29 1.52 12% 0.262 30th
6 Logan Gilbert SEA at PHI R x x x 22.2 3.57 1.01 27% 0.344 8th
7 Patrick Sandoval LAA OAK L x x x 18.2 3.38 1.45 4% 0.310 20th
8 Tanner Bibee CLE COL R x x x #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 0.323 15th
9 Anthony DeSclafani SFG STL R x x x 24 2.63 0.88 21% 0.329 12th
10 Steven Matz STL at SFG L x x x 22 6.55 1.64 14% 0.246 29th
11 Tanner Houck BOS at BAL R x x x 21 4.29 1.24 16% 0.346 7th
12 Drew Smyly CHC SDP L x x 23 3.13 0.91 20% 0.337 12th
13 Tyler Wells BAL BOS R x x 18.1 3.44 0.87 18% 0.320 16th
14 Germán Márquez COL at CLE R x x 16.1 4.41 0.92 18% 0.299 27th
15 Domingo Germán NYY at MIN R x x 20 4.50 1.05 22% 0.305 22nd
16 Graham Ashcraft CIN TEX R x 24 1.88 1.17 10% 0.324 13th
17 Kenta Maeda MIN NYY R x 13 4.15 1.00 21% 0.336 11th
18 Jon Gray TEX at CIN R x 19.1 3.72 1.45 5% 0.338 9th
19 MacKenzie Gore WSN at NYM L x 21 3.43 1.38 13% 0.345 9th
20 Tony Gonsolin LAD at PIT R x #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 0.324 14th
21 Taijuan Walker PHI SEA R x 21.1 3.80 1.31 6% 0.317 18th
22 Yusei Kikuchi TOR CHW L x 21.1 3.80 1.17 18% 0.370 5th
23 Hunter Brown HOU at TBR R 23.1 3.09 1.20 17% 0.388 1st
24 Luis Medina OAK at LAA R #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 0.313 19th
25 Michael Lorenzen DET at MIL R 9 6.00 1.56 18% 0.361 3rd
26 Michael Kopech CHW at TOR R 20.2 6.97 1.74 9% 0.349 5th
27 Michael Wacha SDP at CHC R 20.1 7.08 1.72 13% 0.337 10th
28 Roansy Contreras PIT LAD R 21.2 4.57 1.52 10% 0.354 4th
29 Ryan Yarbrough KCR at ARI L 13 7.62 1.38 3% 0.315 19th
30 Calvin Faucher TBR HOU R 4.2 7.71 1.71 18% 0.312 20th
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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