Big Kid Adds (Week 5)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They get originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers are going to try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in four or more of these leagues.

Batters

Jarren Duran (9): Duran got the call last week and started in five of six games while the one game he sat was against a lefty. So far in his short major league career, the 26-year-old struggled with lefties (.521 OPS) and got by against righties (.684 OPS). It helps that Boston is scheduled to face six righties this week.

In AAA this season, hit a respectable .195/.353/.439 (20% BB%) with 2 HR and 2 SB. In 28 PA in the majors, he is riding a .563 BABIP to a .391/.429/.565 and 2 SB.

His early results point to some possible major changes. First, he’s just not swinging as much with his Swing% dropping from 50% to 37% (46% is league). Additionally, he’s set a new maxEV at 111.6 mph and nearly doubled his launch angle from 8 degrees to 14 degrees.

It’s impossible to know if any of these changes will stick, but between the playing time and possible talent increase, his stock is way up.

Taylor Walls (8): Walls is playing some but the demand is from talent jump. The 26-year-old isn’t starting every day (six of the last 10 games) and the Rays have seven games this week, but it’s not obvious when he plays. He’s not in a strict platoon but he has started against four of the five lefties the team has faced. This week, the Rays only face righties so I’d expect Walls to start in four games.

As for his talent. In 50 PA, he’s showing improved plate discipline with more walks (11% BB% to 14%) and fewer strikeouts (26% K% to 16%). Additionally his power seems up with his ISO tripling from .113 to .333. Also, he’s hit 3 HR but none of them were Barrels (0 Barrel this season). While he’s using the center part of the field to get the rest of his hits, the home runs are down the line.

He is airing out a more balls with his Launch Angle going from 12 degrees to 17 to 21.

It seems like the next gear for him involve full-time at-bats.

Pavin Smith (6): Smith has started in six of the last eight games and has a series in Colorado at week’s end. In just 28 PA so far, he has hit .321/.457/.643 with 2 HR. The increase production seems like a mirage since he was struggling in AAA (.217/.333/.304).

I don’t see him more than a streaming option.

Oswald Peraza (5): Peraza was promoted last week, but it seemed like he’d end up as a bench bat. Then the news came out that Josh Donaldson would stay on the IL for a few more weeks. Since the news came out, Peraza has started in five of six games while hitting .200/.368/.200 with 1 SB over 19 PA.

I’m guessing most of the demand came from these being deeper leagues and there are almost no waiver wire shortstop replacement options.

Jack Suwinski (5): A trip to Colorado can do wonders for a batter. Before the trip, Suwinski was hitting .200/.286/.333 with 1 HR. Last week, he posted a 1.696 OPS with 4 HR raising his overall season line to .255/.383/.638.

His talent level might be heading up. He’s lowered his chase rate (o-swing%) from 26% to 14% which has helped his walk rate jump from 11% to 18%. All the other power metrics remained constant. Also, he’s airing out more balls with his Launch Angle going from 14 degrees to 21.

He started the season in a platoon by sitting against the first five lefties the team faced. He did start against the last lefty in the third game at Colorado. This week, the Pirates are supposed to face two lefties in their six games. A lot of his value going forward will be if he starts in those two games or remains in a platoon.

Corey Julks (5): The 27-year-old Julks has started in 12 of 23 games but never in more than two straight. While a .410 BABIP has his batting average up at .305, he has shown almost no plate discipline with a 2% BB% and 31 K%. He was known for his power (31 HR in AAA last year), it has good (66% to 80% ranks in StatCast power metrics), but not enough to overcome the lack of plate discipline.

Besides the power, he’s shown some speed in the minors with 22 SB last season. In the majors so far, he has attempted two stolen bases but was caught both times.

His fantasy value will come down to how he can play until the rest of the team gets healthy.

Jake Meyers (5): Meyers has started nine straight since Chas McCormick went on the IL. Meyers is a volume play by hitting .286/.364/.408 so far.

Starters

Mason Miller (9): Miller was this week’s obvious roster with tons of coverage.

Joey Lucchesi (8): Lucchesi has made one dominant major league start this season by going 7 IP with 9 K and 0 ER. He attacked hitters with three pitches, sinker, change/curve, and four-seamer/cutter, with the classification systems having issues labeling the pitch types. Here are the shape comps on each one.

Sinker

Four-seamer (Cutter)

Curve (Change)

Additionally, here are some pitch modeling numbers. ***

The two fastballs grade below average with the curve being average or better. The curve’s results are better than those projected from it’s shape.

Taking the good and bad, he projects to be an average starter who will be streamable depending on the matchup.

Dean Kremer (6): Kremer has a two-start week at Boston and versus Detroit. The first start went OK with 5 K, 1 BB, and 4 ER in 5 IP while securing the Win. The major issue during the start, and the rest of the season, was home runs (2 during start, 2.6 HR/9 on the season).

Additionally, he’s not been great in other aspects of his profile with a just 6.9 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 5.01 xFIP.

The only change I can spot this season is that he’s throwing his fastball about 2 mph faster (93.6 mph to 95.3 mph) with a jump in swinging-strike rate (9% SwStr% to 13%)

I feel he’s a streamer and nothing more.

JP Sears (6): Sears would be having a nice little breakout (21.8% K%-BB%, 19th highest with 20 min IP) if it wasn’t for a 2.5 HR/9. Now, he deserves some of those home runs with just a 28% GB% as seen by his 4.61 xFIP. He’s getting the extra swings-and-misses with just his fastball (6% SwStr% to 13% SwStr%). The stuff models put the fastball right at average (50 grade from PitchingBot, 99 Stuff+) while its comps expect heavy regression.

I think he has been a bit lucky and a return to 2022 will happen soon.

Vince Velasquez (6): I’ve been burnt so many time with a Velazquez breakout, I’ve lost count. Here is a graph of a 5-game rolling average in ERA (career 4.89 ERA).

Every time he has a five game hot streak, his ERA jumps in the next few starts. Sometimes as high as double digits.

Yes he had three good starts (1.42 ERA, 10.9 K/9, 0.89 WHIP).

Yes, he threw his bad fastball fewer times (52% to 46%).

Yes, he’s doubled the usage (22% to 42%) of his decent slider (16% SwStr%) .

And I still don’t buy it.

Relievers

Bryan Abreu (8): I feel these adds were more of a knock on Ryan Pressley not pitching over the weekend when the team had two Save chances and Abreu converted both.

Abreu has been one of the game’s better relievers over the past couple of seasons with a 1.73 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 13.3 K/9. The only blemish is a 4.0 BB/9 but the strikeouts offset those walks.

In any league where Saves are needed, Abreu needs to be rostered to see how the situation shakes out.

Brusdar Graterol (8): This add was a one week play because Graterol seemed to be the acting closer with Evan Phillips on maternity leave. Phillips is already back and Graterol can go back to the setup role.

Jeurys Familia (7): Familia got the last two Saves for the A’s but he’s struggling on the season with a just a 4.1 K/9, 7.4 BB/9, and a 5.73 ERA. Unless someone is in the deepest of leagues and Familia is the only option, just ignore as the role might change at anytime.

*** I need to write something up to compare the two stuff values (Pitching Bot and Stuff+), my own pERA values (100% results based), and my comps. They are each on their own scale and I’m thinking about putting them all on a similar scale (eg. ERA) for comparison.