Starting Pitcher Chart – April 26th
In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it!
Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts (for the first few weeks, it’ll be their 2023 stats), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. The opponent wOBA will remain blank for a while until we get some data and because there is so much lineup turnover year-to-year, I’m not going to include last year’s mark. I’ll start including wOBA data on April 17th.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
Trying something new by splitting up the data a bit with the recos & comments in one chart and the recos and stats in another. Let me know if that’s preferable to putting it all in one. I decided this after writing it, but for the future this could give me a bit more space for deeper comments, too. At any rate, I’m open to any feedback even if it’s constructive criticism!
| RK | PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | NOTE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zac Gallen | ARI | KCR | R | x | x | x | Picking up right where 2022 left off | |
| 2 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | at | ATL | R | x | x | x | 1 great, 1 bad, 2 meh; 9 Ks last time out & a 14% SwStr on the season, I think he’ll be fine |
| 3 | Bryce Elder | ATL | MIA | R | x | x | x | Schedule hasn’t been a cakewalk (at STL, v. HOU) so a gem here spikes the confidence in next wk’s 2-step at NYM/v.BAL | |
| 4 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | DET | R | x | x | x | Running a career-low 10% SwStr, but there’s still no world where I’m sitting him | |
| 5 | Kodai Senga | NYM | at | WSN | R | x | x | x | 15% BB & 2.1 HR will catch up to him & could come against any opponent, but I have a hard time sitting him w/the upside |
| 6 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | at | PHI | R | x | x | x | Big test for the 26-yr old stud…he was pushed a day for an unknown reason |
| 7 | Patrick Sandoval | LAA | OAK | L | x | x | x | BB make him maddening regardless of opponent, but I’m going to keep starting him bc he’s still good when on | |
| 8 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | COL | R | x | x | x | Big-time prospect slated for his debut; listen to my thoughts on him here | |
| 9 | Anthony DeSclafani | SFG | STL | R | x | x | x | He’s good when he’s healthy as evidenced by several solid seasons; team streamer in 10s | |
| 10 | Steven Matz | STL | at | SFG | L | x | x | x | He’s a streamer… you stream v. the 29th ranked offense, just remember streams are never risk-free |
| 11 | Tanner Houck | BOS | at | BAL | R | x | x | x | Velo is only 0.7 off the 94.8 mph he had 4 GS last yr; has gone 90+ pitches in L2 |
| 12 | Drew Smyly | CHC | SDP | L | x | x | Talent isn’t the question, it’s always health: 16% K-BB in 282 IP since 2020 | ||
| 13 | Tyler Wells | BAL | BOS | R | x | x | A worthy stream, but comes w/risk & could look like the NYY start (6 IP/4 ER/6 K) | ||
| 14 | Germán Márquez | COL | at | CLE | R | x | x | I’m back to starting him on the road; MIL at home up next, but then a trip to PIT (they’re doing well, but I’ll likely still go for it if these next 2 aren’t duds) | |
| 15 | Domingo Germán | NYY | at | MIN | R | x | x | HRs put him at a risk every time out; allowed 2 HR in ea. of the 4 ER starts | |
| 16 | Graham Ashcraft | CIN | TEX | R | x | Results are there, but skills are lagging (4.49 SIERA) | |||
| 17 | Kenta Maeda | MIN | NYY | R | x | Left early after taking a batted ball to the leg | |||
| 18 | Jon Gray | TEX | at | CIN | R | x | Has 8 K/9 BB in 3 GS since opening gem; still nervous in Coors Lite even after Perez’s strong start (6.3 IP/1 UER) | ||
| 19 | MacKenzie Gore | WSN | at | NYM | L | x | 16% BB needs to come down, but there are elements here for a breakout… keep tabs on him in shallower formats | ||
| 20 | Tony Gonsolin | LAD | at | PIT | R | x | 1st start of the season coming off 3 IP/57-pitch rehab; might only be 4 IP & PIT is spry | ||
| 21 | Taijuan Walker | PHI | SEA | R | x | A matchup play and I’m not thrilled with this one… be careful | |||
| 22 | Yusei Kikuchi | TOR | CHW | L | x | Career-high 95.5 mph, but his 2.5 HR comes from at least 1 HR in every gm | |||
| 23 | Hunter Brown | HOU | at | TBR | R | Love the symmetry of his 2 7 IP/0 ER & 2 4.7 IP/4 ER; not worth the risk here | |||
| 24 | Luis Medina | OAK | at | LAA | R | Massive BB issues make it tough to start blindly; has the stuff to impress on a given night, but will likely frustrate more than not | |||
| 25 | Michael Lorenzen | DET | at | MIL | R | On my radar, but 9% SwStr doesn’t match 26% K… hits 15-tm pickup list w/a gem here | |||
| 26 | Michael Kopech | CHW | at | TOR | R | 3+ BB in all 4 starts… he’s a viable cut everywhere if you’ve got a target in mind | |||
| 27 | Michael Wacha | SDP | at | CHC | R | He’s a 15+ tm streamer, he’ll probably be cycled around the league all summer | |||
| 28 | Roansy Contreras | PIT | LAD | R | 7 of 11 ER v. HOU, he’s going to be super volatile and occasionally stud out v. good tms, but I still think he’s a matchup play for now | ||||
| 29 | Ryan Yarbrough | KCR | at | ARI | L | Absolutely not | |||
| 30 | Calvin Faucher | TBR | HOU | R | Josh Fleming will follow & neither have any fantasy relevance here |
| RK | PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | OPP L30 wOBA | wOBA RK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zac Gallen | ARI | KCR | R | x | x | x | 31.1 | 2.59 | 0.80 | 29% | 0.275 | 29th | |
| 2 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | at | ATL | R | x | x | x | 24.2 | 5.47 | 1.14 | 14% | 0.346 | 6th |
| 3 | Bryce Elder | ATL | MIA | R | x | x | x | 23.2 | 1.14 | 1.18 | 17% | 0.303 | 24th | |
| 4 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | DET | R | x | x | x | 22.2 | 3.97 | 1.28 | 14% | 0.275 | 28th | |
| 5 | Kodai Senga | NYM | at | WSN | R | x | x | x | 21 | 4.29 | 1.52 | 12% | 0.262 | 30th |
| 6 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | at | PHI | R | x | x | x | 22.2 | 3.57 | 1.01 | 27% | 0.344 | 8th |
| 7 | Patrick Sandoval | LAA | OAK | L | x | x | x | 18.2 | 3.38 | 1.45 | 4% | 0.310 | 20th | |
| 8 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | COL | R | x | x | x | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 0.323 | 15th | |
| 9 | Anthony DeSclafani | SFG | STL | R | x | x | x | 24 | 2.63 | 0.88 | 21% | 0.329 | 12th | |
| 10 | Steven Matz | STL | at | SFG | L | x | x | x | 22 | 6.55 | 1.64 | 14% | 0.246 | 29th |
| 11 | Tanner Houck | BOS | at | BAL | R | x | x | x | 21 | 4.29 | 1.24 | 16% | 0.346 | 7th |
| 12 | Drew Smyly | CHC | SDP | L | x | x | 23 | 3.13 | 0.91 | 20% | 0.337 | 12th | ||
| 13 | Tyler Wells | BAL | BOS | R | x | x | 18.1 | 3.44 | 0.87 | 18% | 0.320 | 16th | ||
| 14 | Germán Márquez | COL | at | CLE | R | x | x | 16.1 | 4.41 | 0.92 | 18% | 0.299 | 27th | |
| 15 | Domingo Germán | NYY | at | MIN | R | x | x | 20 | 4.50 | 1.05 | 22% | 0.305 | 22nd | |
| 16 | Graham Ashcraft | CIN | TEX | R | x | 24 | 1.88 | 1.17 | 10% | 0.324 | 13th | |||
| 17 | Kenta Maeda | MIN | NYY | R | x | 13 | 4.15 | 1.00 | 21% | 0.336 | 11th | |||
| 18 | Jon Gray | TEX | at | CIN | R | x | 19.1 | 3.72 | 1.45 | 5% | 0.338 | 9th | ||
| 19 | MacKenzie Gore | WSN | at | NYM | L | x | 21 | 3.43 | 1.38 | 13% | 0.345 | 9th | ||
| 20 | Tony Gonsolin | LAD | at | PIT | R | x | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 0.324 | 14th | ||
| 21 | Taijuan Walker | PHI | SEA | R | x | 21.1 | 3.80 | 1.31 | 6% | 0.317 | 18th | |||
| 22 | Yusei Kikuchi | TOR | CHW | L | x | 21.1 | 3.80 | 1.17 | 18% | 0.370 | 5th | |||
| 23 | Hunter Brown | HOU | at | TBR | R | 23.1 | 3.09 | 1.20 | 17% | 0.388 | 1st | |||
| 24 | Luis Medina | OAK | at | LAA | R | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 0.313 | 19th | |||
| 25 | Michael Lorenzen | DET | at | MIL | R | 9 | 6.00 | 1.56 | 18% | 0.361 | 3rd | |||
| 26 | Michael Kopech | CHW | at | TOR | R | 20.2 | 6.97 | 1.74 | 9% | 0.349 | 5th | |||
| 27 | Michael Wacha | SDP | at | CHC | R | 20.1 | 7.08 | 1.72 | 13% | 0.337 | 10th | |||
| 28 | Roansy Contreras | PIT | LAD | R | 21.2 | 4.57 | 1.52 | 10% | 0.354 | 4th | ||||
| 29 | Ryan Yarbrough | KCR | at | ARI | L | 13 | 7.62 | 1.38 | 3% | 0.315 | 19th | |||
| 30 | Calvin Faucher | TBR | HOU | R | 4.2 | 7.71 | 1.71 | 18% | 0.312 | 20th |