Starting Pitcher Chart – April 19th

April 19, 2023

In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it!

Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts (for the first few weeks, it’ll be their 2023 stats), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

New formatting allows me to automate things a bit more with the data input. Does it still look OK?

Wednesday, April 19th Starters

PITCHER	TM		OPP	THR	10	12	15+	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	OPP L30 wOBA	wOBA RK	NOTE
Joe Ryan	MIN	at	BOS	R	x	x	x	2.84	0.63	33%	0.316	18th	New splitter giving him 3 viable offerings and fueling a huge K% surge (37%)
Max Scherzer	NYM	at	LAD	R	x	x	x	4.41	1.22	11%	0.350	4th	Not in a groove yet, but obviously no universe where we’re sitting him
Justin Steele	CHC	at	OAK	L	x	x	x	1.42	0.84	18%	0.314	17th	Great chance to log a 4th straight 6+ IP
Drew Rasmussen	TBR	at	CIN	R	x	x	x	2.60	0.87	23%	0.337	9th	94 pitches last time out; took 16 starts to get 90+ pitches last yr
Kyle Bradish	BAL	at	WSN	R	x	x	x	0.00	1.20	14%	0.279	28th	Soft landing off the IL and I’m starting the popular breakout pick
Brady Singer	KCR		TEX	R	x	x	x	7.88	1.44	17%	0.323	13th	3.85 SIERA says hold the fort as his 11.3 H/9 & 2.8 HR/9 regress
Trevor Rogers	MIA		SFG	L	x	x	x	4.20	1.20	16%	0.256	29th	Sharp last time out after opening w/2 v. NYM
Alex Cobb	SFG	at	MIA	R	x	x	x	3.14	1.47	19%	0.297	25th	Sky-high BABIP (.378) should regress some but not a ton w/that wretched defense
Martín Pérez	TEX	at	KCR	L	x	x	x	2.87	1.60	13%	0.259	28th	This isn’t the same as last yr & returns of HRs says be careful, but I’m riding w/this matchup
Noah Syndergaard	LAD		NYM	R		x	x	5.63	1.25	21%	0.321	15th	2 K gems in his first 3 and a 3 pt. jump in SwStr to 12%
Cal Quantrill	CLE	at	DET	R		x	x	5.74	1.66	5%	0.276	29th	DET swept the DH w/5 runs so they’re still a stream for many SPs
Charlie Morton	ATL	at	SDP	R		x	x	3.86	1.71	6%	0.319	16th	Modest K-BB still feeling effects of opener, though 10% SwStr in L2 is still light
José Berríos	TOR	at	HOU	R			x	7.98	1.50	23%	0.317	17th	Is there a path forward? Career-best 13% SwStr and a sharp 3.14 SIERA thru 3
Griffin Canning	LAA	at	NYY	R			x	3.60	1.00	20%	0.333	11th	Solid 24% K and 13% SwStr over his career, just needs health
Mason Miller	OAK		CHC	R			x	–	–	–	0.337	10th	MLB debut for an ELECTRIC prospect who’s battled health throughout his career
Mike Clevinger	CHW		PHI	R			x	2.20	1.35	6%	0.368	3rd	2 gems in his 3 starts, but walking guys every time out… be careful
Jhony Brito	NYY		LAA	R			x	6.75	1.41	9%	0.304	23rd	I’d go back to the well in deep lgs even after the meltdown
Spencer Turnbull	DET		CLE	R			x	9.00	1.92	6%	0.302	24th	1st good start in trip to TOR builds some confidence, more of a stash at this pt
Taijuan Walker	PHI	at	CHW	R			x	4.20	1.40	6%	0.312	20th	Standard streamer so just know you can definitely get burnt here
Eric Lauer	MIL	at	SEA	L			x	5.28	1.57	12%	0.286	24th	Perennial HR issue makes him particularly volatile
MacKenzie Gore	WSN		BAL	L			x	3.00	1.47	13%	0.385	3rd	Too many BB to trust consistently… toss-up streamer unless you buy BAL’s early wOBA
Luis Garcia	HOU		TOR	R				7.71	1.86	12%	0.342	6th	Struggling to adjust with velo drop (-1.2 mph) and BB% surge (+3 pts to 10%)
Johan Oviedo	PIT	at	COL	R				2.45	1.20	18%	0.312	19th	Picking him up where available in medium-deep lgs, but benching in Coors, of course
Nick Martinez	SDP		ATL	R				5.60	1.42	1%	0.339	8th	Still toting a 12% SwStr, but struggling to put away guys w/just a 14% K
Corey Kluber	BOS		MIN	R				6.92	1.46	12%	0.293	27th	Once great stud can still miss bats (13% SwStr), but is an occasional streamer at best
Jake Woodford	STL		ARI	R				5.65	1.74	9%	0.307	22nd	I just don’t see any real upside
Marco Gonzales	SEA		MIL	L				4.22	1.59	2%	0.285	25th	I just don’t see any real upside
Austin Gomber	COL		PIT	L				8.16	1.60	8%	0.334	14th	No chance in Coors
Madison Bumgarner	ARI	at	STL	L				7.90	2.12	-4%	0.360	7th	I just don’t see any real upside
Levi Stoudt	CIN		TBR	R				–	–	–	0.382	1st	Incredibly difficult landing spot for CIN’s #22 prospect

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

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spiderdogmember

11 months ago

Dumb question… I know what wOBA is but what is “OPP L30 wOBA”?
The opponents last 30 at bats weighted on base average????

Thanks,

Travis Lmember

Reply to spiderdog

Last 30 days wOBA for opponents, ie how hot their offense has been the past month. It’ll be noisier but more sensitive to real changes due to injuries, personnel changes, and talent changes.