Big Kid Adds (Week 4)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They get originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers are going to try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in four or more of these leagues.

Taj Bradley (9), Zach Neto (8), Edouard Julien (8): These three have been covered by many others, especially those who cover prospects. There is nothing I can add.

Hitters

Brent Rooker (9): The 28-year-old started six straight games batting either third or fourth for the A’s. He has been productive in 10 games (.333/.395/.727 with 4 HR) with most of his gains coming from lowering his strikeout rate from 31% to 18%. He is selling out for power putting everything in the air (30% GB%) and pulling them (48% Pull%). He’s a fine option until he isn’t.

Jake Burger (9): In 248 career PA, the 27-year-old has hit .261/.316/.513 with 6 HR (128 wRC+). He’s been hurt and blocked by others (i.e. Moncada). In a handful of plate appearances this season, he is posting a 1.441 OPS. With Moncada on the IL, Burger is at least going to get a week’s worth of games in. It is tough to know how the playing time will shake out beyond that.

Nick Maton (7): While only starting against righties, Maton has hit 3 HR but with a .195 AVG (29% K%). He can be a nice fill-in when starting. The Tigers only face righties this week and six of the seven starters next week are righties, so Maton looks like a nice short-term stream.

Mauricio Dubón (7): As someone who added Dubon, there just weren’t many shortstop options available after several went down last week. Dubon was one of the most appealing options because he was hitting .340/.365/.400 with no home runs or steals. He’s shown double-digit home power over a full season, but he’s got a 51% GB% this season. He lowered his attack angle from around 15 degrees to closer to 5 degrees.

Month: Attack Angle in degrees
2022
May: 15
Jun: 16
Jul: 11
Aug: 1
Sep: 7
2023
Apr: 5

He’s not great, but he’s playing and can provide some help with batting average.

Nick Senzel (7): Senzel has started four straight in center field since coming off the IL. While he’s gotten off to a slow start (.561 OPS), projections have him around 12 HR/12 SB with a .250 AVG over a full season. A small red flag is his career-high 14% SwStr%.

Connor Joe (6): Joe has started in half the games this year and against all lefties. When he gets in, he’s been great so far (.333/.421/.576, 1 HR, 1 SB). The Pirates (Joe’s new team) travel to Colorado this week and will face two lefties. Not an ideal play.

Jake Cave (6): The Phillies face six righties this week, so Cave popped as a potential add. He’s struggled this season (.205/.273/.333, 1 HR, 2 SB) and just has a .738 OPS against righties. He’s not exactly a force from his strong side.

Alex Kirilloff (5): Kiriloff is coming back from the IL with four games so far in A-ball. It’ll be interesting to see if the 25-year-old can stay healthy and productive once he returns to the majors.

Starters

Colin Rea (7): I can see the appeal of Rea from his first start when he threw 5.2 IP against the Padres for 6 K, 1 BB, and 50% GB%. I had several reasons for hesitation mainly that my system (takes into account projections, stuff, and results) had him near a 4.50 ERA pitcher with many other options ahead of him. Also, digging into his first start, he didn’t miss many bats with a 7% SwStr% which normally equates to a 14% K%, not the 32% K% he posted. His cutter got the best results (three whiffs on 21 pitches) with nothing else standing out.

While going through his profile, I found a coding error. MLB added two new pitch types this year and Rea was throwing one, a sweeper (ST). While historically, the pitch go lumped into sliders, my system was ignoring it. Even with the correction, I still had him as a 4.50 ERA pitch because he only threw the sweeper 13% of the time. It grades as a great pitch and here are its comps.

While the projection remains the same, there is some upside if he throws the sweeper more and his not-so-good fastballs fewer times. It was a nice week to add him, bench him against Seattle to get another look, and then possibly use him in a two-step against the Tigers and Angels.

Griffin Canning (8): Canning was great in his debut going 5 IP while allowing 2 Runs with 4 K and 0 BB. Additionally, his fastball velocity was there with his career norms but he dropped his usage from 40% to 25%. He threw his change, slider, and curve more. Over Canning’s career, those three secondaries each have a swinging-strike rate of over 15%.

Additionally, his secondaries have a groundball rate of over 40% with his slider at 51% GB%. With a livelier ball this year, keeping the ball on the ground should help. I know it’s just one start, but Canning might be one of the better options to pop up on the wire.

Michael Grove (6): Grove is still in the rotation and has two decent matchups with the Cubs this week and the Pirates next week. The main question is how talented is Grove? His first two starts were disasters (12 ER in 7 IP) but he posted a 2.70 FIP and 4.10 xFIP. Then he went out and shoved against the Cubs (5 IP, 6 K, 1 ER). His 9.00 ERA will keep some managers away, but his ERA estimators are closer to 4.00.

Compared to last season, his strikeouts are up from 7.4 K/9 to 9.7 K/9 as he has leaned into his slider (20% to 34%). In his short career, his slider has a 28% SwStr%. We’ll find out later this week if he can dominate the Cubs again.

Drew Smyly (5): I’m not sure about this add with several down arrows in his profile. His fastball velocity is off 1 mph (92.6 to 91.6) and he’s throwing it more (37% to 46%). His strikeouts are barely down but his walks are up (2.2 BB/9 to 2.9) with the overall change having his xFIP jump from 4.18 to 4.96. People aren’t chasing a lucky start with his 4.70 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Finally, his schedule is tough coming up against the Dodgers (Urias) and the Padres (Wacha). Maybe he was just the 7th option on several people’s bid lists.

Kyle Freeland (5): This looks like a disaster before it even starts. Managers are chasing a two start week where Freeland faces Pittsburg at home and then goes on the road to Philadelphia. I know Freeland has a 0.96 ERA but it’s with the help of a 100% LOB%. His strikeout rate is well below league average at 5.3 BB/9. This two-step will not end well. [Update: It didn’t start well when he allowed 7 Runs in 2.2 IP on Monday]

Peyton Battenfield (5): In one start, the 25-year-old right jumped on my radar. While he had more strikeouts in the lower minors, he’s transformed himself into a low-strikeout, low-walk pitcher who gets a decent number of groundballs.

For an arsenal, he throws a damn nice cutter about half the time. Here are the comps on the pitch.

He also throws an average to below-average four-seamer and curve.

Also, it helps that he’s facing Detroit this week and lined up to face Colorado at home and Boston on the road next week. In all, he should be around a 4.00 ERA pitcher but more will be known after his next few starts.

Spencer Turnbull (5): I’m betting Turnbull was added because of his 98 Stuff+ and how he limited Toronto to one run in his last start. Including that last start, everything was heading in the wrong direction with a career-worst 6.9 K/9 and a unrosterable 4.2 BB/9. The love was not the surface stats (9.00 ERA and 1.92 WHIP). The schedule isn’t ideal with him scheduled to face Cleveland this week and at Milwaukee next week.

Going back to his last start, he pretty much went fastball (53% usage) and slider (38% usage) while only throwing them a combined 68% in his first start. Historically, his slider has been his best pitch (17% SwStr%, 53% GB%) but it has not been great this season (9% SwStr%). Steaming option.

Relievers

José Quijada (7): Quijada’s rise to getting Saves was a little faster than I expected. He was decent last season (11.5 K/9 and 3.98 ERA) and the Angels were using him in high-leverage events. I drafted him in all six of my draft champions leagues as a near last-round flier.

While the results have been great over 5 IP (0.00 ERA, 0.40 WHIP), the lefty’s strikeouts are down (11.5 K/9 to 7.2 K/9) which is backed up by his SwStr% dropping from 15% to 7%. His four-seamer, which he throws 85% of the time, is no longer missing bats. When I run my pitch comps his 2022 four-seamer is the number one comp to this season’s four-seamer.

The difference might be a handedness issue. Last season, he faced left-handed hitters 34% of the time but only 23% this season. His stats might trend up if he slots in only against lefties. I suspect he’ll get a Save or two a month to end up with double digits by the season’s end.

Brad Boxberger (6): So far this season, he has been good (10 K/9, 0.95 WHIP, 1.42 ERA) and got a Save in his last appearance. Fullmer had blown the previous Save opportunity so Fulmer worked the 8th and Boxburger came in for the ninth. It’s not clear if Boxburger is the closer, but it’s better to be a week early than a week late.