Starting Pitcher Chart – April 19th
by Paul Sporer
April 19, 2023
In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it!
Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts (for the first few weeks, it’ll be their 2023 stats), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
New formatting allows me to automate things a bit more with the data input. Does it still look OK?
Wednesday, April 19th Starters
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | OPP L30 wOBA | wOBA RK | NOTE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Ryan | MIN | at | BOS | R | x | x | x | 2.84 | 0.63 | 33% | 0.316 | 18th | New splitter giving him 3 viable offerings and fueling a huge K% surge (37%) |
| Max Scherzer | NYM | at | LAD | R | x | x | x | 4.41 | 1.22 | 11% | 0.350 | 4th | Not in a groove yet, but obviously no universe where we’re sitting him |
| Justin Steele | CHC | at | OAK | L | x | x | x | 1.42 | 0.84 | 18% | 0.314 | 17th | Great chance to log a 4th straight 6+ IP |
| Drew Rasmussen | TBR | at | CIN | R | x | x | x | 2.60 | 0.87 | 23% | 0.337 | 9th | 94 pitches last time out; took 16 starts to get 90+ pitches last yr |
| Kyle Bradish | BAL | at | WSN | R | x | x | x | 0.00 | 1.20 | 14% | 0.279 | 28th | Soft landing off the IL and I’m starting the popular breakout pick |
| Brady Singer | KCR | TEX | R | x | x | x | 7.88 | 1.44 | 17% | 0.323 | 13th | 3.85 SIERA says hold the fort as his 11.3 H/9 & 2.8 HR/9 regress | |
| Trevor Rogers | MIA | SFG | L | x | x | x | 4.20 | 1.20 | 16% | 0.256 | 29th | Sharp last time out after opening w/2 v. NYM | |
| Alex Cobb | SFG | at | MIA | R | x | x | x | 3.14 | 1.47 | 19% | 0.297 | 25th | Sky-high BABIP (.378) should regress some but not a ton w/that wretched defense |
| Martín Pérez | TEX | at | KCR | L | x | x | x | 2.87 | 1.60 | 13% | 0.259 | 28th | This isn’t the same as last yr & returns of HRs says be careful, but I’m riding w/this matchup |
| Noah Syndergaard | LAD | NYM | R | x | x | 5.63 | 1.25 | 21% | 0.321 | 15th | 2 K gems in his first 3 and a 3 pt. jump in SwStr to 12% | ||
| Cal Quantrill | CLE | at | DET | R | x | x | 5.74 | 1.66 | 5% | 0.276 | 29th | DET swept the DH w/5 runs so they’re still a stream for many SPs | |
| Charlie Morton | ATL | at | SDP | R | x | x | 3.86 | 1.71 | 6% | 0.319 | 16th | Modest K-BB still feeling effects of opener, though 10% SwStr in L2 is still light | |
| José Berríos | TOR | at | HOU | R | x | 7.98 | 1.50 | 23% | 0.317 | 17th | Is there a path forward? Career-best 13% SwStr and a sharp 3.14 SIERA thru 3 | ||
| Griffin Canning | LAA | at | NYY | R | x | 3.60 | 1.00 | 20% | 0.333 | 11th | Solid 24% K and 13% SwStr over his career, just needs health | ||
| Mason Miller | OAK | CHC | R | x | – | – | – | 0.337 | 10th | MLB debut for an ELECTRIC prospect who’s battled health throughout his career | |||
| Mike Clevinger | CHW | PHI | R | x | 2.20 | 1.35 | 6% | 0.368 | 3rd | 2 gems in his 3 starts, but walking guys every time out… be careful | |||
| Jhony Brito | NYY | LAA | R | x | 6.75 | 1.41 | 9% | 0.304 | 23rd | I’d go back to the well in deep lgs even after the meltdown | |||
| Spencer Turnbull | DET | CLE | R | x | 9.00 | 1.92 | 6% | 0.302 | 24th | 1st good start in trip to TOR builds some confidence, more of a stash at this pt | |||
| Taijuan Walker | PHI | at | CHW | R | x | 4.20 | 1.40 | 6% | 0.312 | 20th | Standard streamer so just know you can definitely get burnt here | ||
| Eric Lauer | MIL | at | SEA | L | x | 5.28 | 1.57 | 12% | 0.286 | 24th | Perennial HR issue makes him particularly volatile | ||
| MacKenzie Gore | WSN | BAL | L | x | 3.00 | 1.47 | 13% | 0.385 | 3rd | Too many BB to trust consistently… toss-up streamer unless you buy BAL’s early wOBA | |||
| Luis Garcia | HOU | TOR | R | 7.71 | 1.86 | 12% | 0.342 | 6th | Struggling to adjust with velo drop (-1.2 mph) and BB% surge (+3 pts to 10%) | ||||
| Johan Oviedo | PIT | at | COL | R | 2.45 | 1.20 | 18% | 0.312 | 19th | Picking him up where available in medium-deep lgs, but benching in Coors, of course | |||
| Nick Martinez | SDP | ATL | R | 5.60 | 1.42 | 1% | 0.339 | 8th | Still toting a 12% SwStr, but struggling to put away guys w/just a 14% K | ||||
| Corey Kluber | BOS | MIN | R | 6.92 | 1.46 | 12% | 0.293 | 27th | Once great stud can still miss bats (13% SwStr), but is an occasional streamer at best | ||||
| Jake Woodford | STL | ARI | R | 5.65 | 1.74 | 9% | 0.307 | 22nd | I just don’t see any real upside | ||||
| Marco Gonzales | SEA | MIL | L | 4.22 | 1.59 | 2% | 0.285 | 25th | I just don’t see any real upside | ||||
| Austin Gomber | COL | PIT | L | 8.16 | 1.60 | 8% | 0.334 | 14th | No chance in Coors | ||||
| Madison Bumgarner | ARI | at | STL | L | 7.90 | 2.12 | -4% | 0.360 | 7th | I just don’t see any real upside | |||
| Levi Stoudt | CIN | TBR | R | – | – | – | 0.382 | 1st | Incredibly difficult landing spot for CIN’s #22 prospect |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
Dumb question… I know what wOBA is but what is “OPP L30 wOBA”?
The opponents last 30 at bats weighted on base average????
Thanks,
Last 30 days wOBA for opponents, ie how hot their offense has been the past month. It’ll be noisier but more sensitive to real changes due to injuries, personnel changes, and talent changes.