Starting Pitcher Chart – April 17th

by
April 17, 2023
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it!

Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts (for the first few weeks, it’ll be their 2023 stats), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. The opponent wOBA will remain blank for a while until we get some data and because there is so much lineup turnover year-to-year, I’m not going to include last year’s mark. I’ll start including wOBA data on April 17th.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

NOTE: The LAA/BOS game is the Boston Marathon Game starting at 10:10 AM Central

Monday, April 17th Starters
PITCHER TM OPP THR 10 12 15+ 2023 STATS OPP wOBA L30 days wOBA RK NOTE
Corbin Burnes MIL at SEA R x x x 5.19 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 13% K-BB 0.315 28th Uber-gem in ARI brought some fantasy managers off the ledge for sure
Jacob deGrom TEX at KCR R x x x 4.32 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 38% K-BB 0.275 9th 2 gems since a shaky Opening Day… nothing to worry about while healthy
Jesús Luzardo MIA SFG L x x x 1.93 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 19% K-BB 0.246 29th Velo & SwStr up, could be laying the groundwork for a major breakthrough
Shohei Ohtani LAA at BOS R x x x 0.47 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 16% K-BB 0.320 15th Likely more useful at SP in given dearth of SP wire options, espec. in a 2-step this wk
Kevin Gausman TOR at HOU R x x x 1.35 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 28% K-BB 0.313 17th If he gets last yr’s BABIP down (and has so far), he has sub-3.00 ERA upside
Zack Wheeler PHI at CHW R x x x 4.02 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 16% K-BB 0.312 19th Not too worried about the early BB% jump, at least for now
Max Fried ATL at SDP L x x x 2.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 15% K-BB 0.337 12th Stats are meaningless w/just 1 start… he’s an Auto Start, of course
Cristian Javier HOU TOR R x x x 4.24 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 17% K-BB 0.349 14th Surprisingly modest at PIT, but they have 9th-lowest K% vRHP
Logan Webb SFG at MIA R x x x 4.76 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 27% K-BB 0.303 3rd 12 K season opener is still boosting his K%, but remains an easy start
Lance Lynn CHW PHI R x x x 7.31 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 19% K-BB 0.344 4th Still working off the 1 dud start
Taj Bradley – Primary TBR at CIN R x x x Bradley has 1 MLB start 0.341 9th It’d be incredible if Bradley consistently got an opener a la Yarbrough circa 2018
Hunter Greene CIN at TBR R x x x 5.14 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 26% K-BB 0.388 8th Calmed some concerns with a gem in ATL including 0 BB
Hayden Wesneski CHC at OAK R x x x 7.50 ERA, 2.83 WHIP, -6% K-BB 0.302 20th Last chance saloon in a lot of lgs w/a 2-step incl. OAK; understand if you already cut in shallows
Dustin May LAD NYM R x x x 1.47 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 7% K-BB 0.305 16th Great results, just wondering if the 2021-22 SwStr% is coming back
Jack Flaherty STL ARI R x x x 1.76 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, -2% K-BB 0.303 13th The hilarity of baseball: 1 BB in Coors after 13 in his first two starts
Merrill Kelly 켈리 ARI at STL R x x 2.93 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 5% K-BB 0.327 5th 4 BB in each outing is uncharacteristic but .257 BABIP has helped counterbalance them
David Peterson NYM at LAD L x 4.91 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 12% K-BB 0.335 13th His .415 BABIP is exacberating the issues w/his 12% BB rate
Kyle Freeland COL PIT L x 0.96 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 9% K-BB 0.318 18th Lack of dominance always makes him volatile so be careful here (5.35 SIERA)
Hunter Gaddis CLE at DET R x 8.53 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 10% K-BB 0.276 27th Feels like an RP to me long-term, but if there’s any start to use him
Brayan Bello BOS LAA R 2023 Debut 0.313 7th Showed flashes of his upside in last year’s 57 IP
Matthew Boyd DET CLE L 4.00 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 0% K-BB 0.333 14th Hasn’t been sharp in 2 GS (7 K, 7 BB), but he’s still a Team Streamer for me
Chris Flexen 플렉센 SEA MIL R 8.74 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, -2% K-BB 0.361 2nd I just don’t see any real upside
Kyle Muller OAK CHC L 5.52 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 6% K-BB 0.331 15th Will struggle for consistent success without BB% improvements
Rich Hill PIT at COL L 7.20 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 6% K-BB 0.305 21st Obviously not doing this
Jordan Lyles KCR TEX R 5.19 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 15% K-BB 0.324 10th I just don’t see any real upside
Ryan Weathers SDP ATL L 2.70 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 5% K-BB 0.395 1st Only aces v. ATL right now
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues





 

Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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Josephmember
1 year ago

Can someone please assist me as I attempt to make the smart play. In a weekly 15tm 5×5 roto league, NFBC Draft Champions is it the right move to start Jordan Lyles? I think this man sucks, but do the 2 starts in this format make him a start?

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