Starting Pitcher Chart – April 17th
In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it!
Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts (for the first few weeks, it’ll be their 2023 stats), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. The opponent wOBA will remain blank for a while until we get some data and because there is so much lineup turnover year-to-year, I’m not going to include last year’s mark. I’ll start including wOBA data on April 17th.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
NOTE: The LAA/BOS game is the Boston Marathon Game starting at 10:10 AM Central
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | 2023 STATS | OPP wOBA L30 days | wOBA RK | NOTE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | MIL | at | SEA | R | x | x | x | 5.19 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 13% K-BB | 0.315 | 28th | Uber-gem in ARI brought some fantasy managers off the ledge for sure |
| Jacob deGrom | TEX | at | KCR | R | x | x | x | 4.32 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 38% K-BB | 0.275 | 9th | 2 gems since a shaky Opening Day… nothing to worry about while healthy |
| Jesús Luzardo | MIA | SFG | L | x | x | x | 1.93 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 19% K-BB | 0.246 | 29th | Velo & SwStr up, could be laying the groundwork for a major breakthrough | |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAA | at | BOS | R | x | x | x | 0.47 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 16% K-BB | 0.320 | 15th | Likely more useful at SP in given dearth of SP wire options, espec. in a 2-step this wk |
| Kevin Gausman | TOR | at | HOU | R | x | x | x | 1.35 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 28% K-BB | 0.313 | 17th | If he gets last yr’s BABIP down (and has so far), he has sub-3.00 ERA upside |
| Zack Wheeler | PHI | at | CHW | R | x | x | x | 4.02 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 16% K-BB | 0.312 | 19th | Not too worried about the early BB% jump, at least for now |
| Max Fried | ATL | at | SDP | L | x | x | x | 2.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 15% K-BB | 0.337 | 12th | Stats are meaningless w/just 1 start… he’s an Auto Start, of course |
| Cristian Javier | HOU | TOR | R | x | x | x | 4.24 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 17% K-BB | 0.349 | 14th | Surprisingly modest at PIT, but they have 9th-lowest K% vRHP | |
| Logan Webb | SFG | at | MIA | R | x | x | x | 4.76 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 27% K-BB | 0.303 | 3rd | 12 K season opener is still boosting his K%, but remains an easy start |
| Lance Lynn | CHW | PHI | R | x | x | x | 7.31 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 19% K-BB | 0.344 | 4th | Still working off the 1 dud start | |
| Taj Bradley – Primary | TBR | at | CIN | R | x | x | x | Bradley has 1 MLB start | 0.341 | 9th | It’d be incredible if Bradley consistently got an opener a la Yarbrough circa 2018 |
| Hunter Greene | CIN | at | TBR | R | x | x | x | 5.14 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 26% K-BB | 0.388 | 8th | Calmed some concerns with a gem in ATL including 0 BB |
| Hayden Wesneski | CHC | at | OAK | R | x | x | x | 7.50 ERA, 2.83 WHIP, -6% K-BB | 0.302 | 20th | Last chance saloon in a lot of lgs w/a 2-step incl. OAK; understand if you already cut in shallows |
| Dustin May | LAD | NYM | R | x | x | x | 1.47 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 7% K-BB | 0.305 | 16th | Great results, just wondering if the 2021-22 SwStr% is coming back | |
| Jack Flaherty | STL | ARI | R | x | x | x | 1.76 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, -2% K-BB | 0.303 | 13th | The hilarity of baseball: 1 BB in Coors after 13 in his first two starts | |
| Merrill Kelly 켈리 | ARI | at | STL | R | x | x | 2.93 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 5% K-BB | 0.327 | 5th | 4 BB in each outing is uncharacteristic but .257 BABIP has helped counterbalance them | |
| David Peterson | NYM | at | LAD | L | x | 4.91 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 12% K-BB | 0.335 | 13th | His .415 BABIP is exacberating the issues w/his 12% BB rate | ||
| Kyle Freeland | COL | PIT | L | x | 0.96 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 9% K-BB | 0.318 | 18th | Lack of dominance always makes him volatile so be careful here (5.35 SIERA) | |||
| Hunter Gaddis | CLE | at | DET | R | x | 8.53 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 10% K-BB | 0.276 | 27th | Feels like an RP to me long-term, but if there’s any start to use him | ||
| Brayan Bello | BOS | LAA | R | 2023 Debut | 0.313 | 7th | Showed flashes of his upside in last year’s 57 IP | ||||
| Matthew Boyd | DET | CLE | L | 4.00 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 0% K-BB | 0.333 | 14th | Hasn’t been sharp in 2 GS (7 K, 7 BB), but he’s still a Team Streamer for me | ||||
| Chris Flexen 플렉센 | SEA | MIL | R | 8.74 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, -2% K-BB | 0.361 | 2nd | I just don’t see any real upside | ||||
| Kyle Muller | OAK | CHC | L | 5.52 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 6% K-BB | 0.331 | 15th | Will struggle for consistent success without BB% improvements | ||||
| Rich Hill | PIT | at | COL | L | 7.20 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 6% K-BB | 0.305 | 21st | Obviously not doing this | |||
| Jordan Lyles | KCR | TEX | R | 5.19 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 15% K-BB | 0.324 | 10th | I just don’t see any real upside | ||||
| Ryan Weathers | SDP | ATL | L | 2.70 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 5% K-BB | 0.395 | 1st | Only aces v. ATL right now |
Can someone please assist me as I attempt to make the smart play. In a weekly 15tm 5×5 roto league, NFBC Draft Champions is it the right move to start Jordan Lyles? I think this man sucks, but do the 2 starts in this format make him a start?